Sports

MML LEAGUE BANTER

October 14, 2021
The Commish

A place for just our annual general discussion, in this case for the MML LEAGUE.

41 thoughts on “MML LEAGUE BANTER”

  1. Hey guys, while I personally do like sitting down and drafting, I have gotten spoiled of late as we have not had to do that and it frees up a day! So, great job by the “Sammie’s” in making their back to back picks relatively quick!

    Let’s keep the momentum going. Be ready to make your pick ahead of time.

    We have somebody at the plate right now. Do we have a batter on deck?

    I’m pushing because we need to make more picks per day than we’ve been making to avoid having to have a sitdown draft.

    Let’s go! Communicate with the commish and have your pick ready before your turn is up!!!

  3. Well, I’m ready for October 26. We will be drafting. Pace is actually slowing down. Too many days with ZERO picks made, and very few picks made on the weekends when everybody should be able to make a pick or two. We now need to make almost 7 per day to avoid drafting…don’t see it happening Ed…

  4. Down to 39 picks, I believe I’ll have Maulers pick today then you’re (DVG) up, so we should get to Heroes tonight I think…I BELIEVE you will get it done and NO draft…plenty of time to get on a roll!

  5. Great job everyone!’

    Just 21 picks to go.

    We can do that this weekend if all of us can get off the couch (college & pro football) enough!

    Let’s keep it going!!!

  7. How ‘Bout Them Drop/Adds?!
    I don’t think it’s too early (I am writing this in the middle of Week #2) to start looking at roster moves made by the teams, starting from the earliest moves of significance (or not), to the most recent.

    Prozac made a nice early move in adding Joel Soriano, a center. IMHO, he was not the best center available, but, he’s a good one and a definite upgrade over who they had.

    Gator Bait added guard Charles Pride-Bryant. I’ve been running the numbers on him for two years and he was always tantalizing (good spread, good percentages) but he couldn’t seem to get enough looks (field goal attempts/FGA’s). He’s off to a good early start. If he works out, it’s a very good get, if not, he’s a good backup option.

    Deep Valley Grouchos (DVG’s) added freshman Trevor Keels-Duke. This all started with the DVG’s initial freshman Maxwell Lewis, having to wait to see if his eligibility would be approved or not, so, they red-shirted him and took TyTy Washington, who was/is starting for Kentucky. They then dropped a senior to add who they hope is a “find” in Ray’Sean Taylor, who takes the most shots on his team but is erratic. That led them to Keels. Duke’s “system” if you will, in recent times is that there are two primary players as far as getting looks. Keels is one of those two. The jury is still out on all of these moves, especially, because they are freshman, but, the positive thing is that each will have plenty of opportunity to put up numbers, the most important thing when it comes to freshmen.

    Speaking of freshmen, it looks like the Saluki YRD’s made their own “find” in taking Jacob Ognacevic, a freshman forward from Lipscomb. He can shoot it and he boards and looks like a really good get for the YRD’s.
    Not finished with frosh, they then added Jason Roche, a forward from the Citadel. You may remember the Citadel coach, his name is Dugger Baucom and he was the HC at VMI. That means his teams like to get up shots, especially three pointers. Roche can shoot the trey and appears to be a decent rebounder. I say, score two more for the YRD’s!

    The DVG’s then added senior Jamal Cain, who is now at Oakland. The Oakland HC is another guy who really lets his players play. Cain is one of the top two options on the team and is an excellent rebounder. He is a potential “stud” (25 or more fppg) fantasy player.

    Getting back to the DVG’s and that freshman chain of moves from above, they were not finished as they couldn’t resist dropping TyTy Washington and replacing him with frosh center Elijah Hutchins-Everett from Austin Peay. Washington got off to a slow start but the lack of both playing on the ball and looks made the DVG’s decide to drop a player who they still think has promise to be a productive frosh this season. Austin Peay seldom gets a recruit of Hutchins-Everett stature. EHH can shoot the ball well and is a good rebounder at around 6’11, 275. He adds good frosh depth and is the future (hopefully) at the center position.

    Psychos made a nice move in dropping an okay Dwight Wilson for Ochai Agbaji-Kansas. I’d been waiting and waiting to see if Agbaji would ever become “the man” for Kansas. That moment has arrived. I like this pick.

    Gator Bait had a freshman problem and in typical Gator Bait fashion, went and solved it. Zach Austin is a 2nd year frosh who looks to be the 2nd option on a High Point team that desperately needs one. They didn’t stop there as they later added frosh guard Taran Armstrong, a stat-stuffer in the Grayson Murphy mold.

    The Deadwood Gang got rid of same (deadwood) and added Kendal Coleman, a young center with promise, who appears to have taken over the job at Northwestern State, but, with Zach Edey and others still on the board, this is a questionable personnel decision…not necessarily a bad one, but, definitely not the player to take, looking at who’s available. On the plus side, they dropped Andre Curbelo. Curbelo’s name has been shouted from the rooftops by all the experts who expected him to blow up this season for Illinois…and, he may. However, I have been creating tiers for all available players over the years. 1st tier, Sleeper tier, Transfer tier (a new one I have added) and, Possible Breakthrough are all the top tiers. Below them are 2nd Tier and 3rd Tier. I had Curbelo as a 2nd tier, pre-draft, and you don’t take a 2nd tier until he shows he ain’t 2nd tier.

    Making a move AFTER The Deadwood Gang took Coleman, were the KC Warthogs who selected the player that TDG should have taken, in Purdue soph center Zach Edey. Edey has taken over the starting position from Trevion Williams and has got to be the leading rebounder per minute in the nation, along with possessing a remarkable FG pct. In other words, Edey could be a fantasy stud. HUGE add for KC and their underrated but way more than capable GM.

    I Did Not Like:
    The very first drop/add was guard Kameron Langley, by the Saluki YRD’s. There is nothing statistically (the math never deceives nor lies) that would indicate that Langley is a fantasy-worthy player…and, he wasn’t, as he got dropped for the freshman Roche. There are so many fantasy-worthy guards in the free agent (FA) pool…but, to their credit, they rebounded nicely…but then, they also made the very next move and added Bodie Hume. Bodie Hume! Bodie Hume? Why? Are the Saluki YRD’s fans of that movie that featured Keanu Reeves as an FBI agent gone undercover trying to locate a robbing band of surfer dudes led by Patrick Swayze-whose name was Bodie?

    I Did Not Like and/or Meh Move:
    The Hoosiers realized that the Golden Dike had too many leaks and jettisoned him for a “glue” player in Terrance Williams-Michigan. Glue is not what’s needed for fantasy success.

  8. So I was looking at possibly making another addd/drop today. I came to the site to look at the free agent pool list which Rick had so graciously added this season and it’s gone! Is that a permanent change? I have other ways of finding FA’s but that one was so easy and really democratize the Free Agent pool.

  11. State of the MMLAfter 4 Weeks!
    It’s time to take a look at what’s been “hoopening” in the MML league. I will go from the bottom to the top, using a team’s highest lineup scoring average by position, team by team and not by conference/division this time. ***Remember too, that I am not using each player’s ACTIVE scoring average (games when he was in the lineup and active for the week) but am using each player’s total average for all games played during the season.
    I am NOT listing the teams in order of who I think is worst to first. My opinion will come in future analysis. For now, I am just letting the numbers speak, although it’s obvious that in looking at the lineups that there will be a team or two, etc., etc., ranked higher than teams below them who have significantly better lineups. So, the schedule has likely been “unkind” at this point of the year. As we get deeper into the season, organic corrections will show up.
    1st Note: I am including players recently acquired who have NOT been in the lineup for the first 4 weeks, since they will be in the lineup going forward and therefore affect the analysis-and, that means that their numbers are inflating the team numbers-but again, moving forward, they will be doing that.
    Rant to note: Every year, all teams need a certain position. Every team may need a forward, a center, a freshman, a guard. But, it’s not difficult to find a forward, a center, and, even a freshman during the season. But, every single fricking year I do this I am writing about so many teams that need a guard. The thread that runs through all those teams is they drafted a freshman in the first round, and/or picked up another player who looked better at another position after the first round and come December, they don’t have a guard and their season is gone. This is why you take the best FA’s FIRST, in the draft, before even thinking about a freshman. After all, how fricking wonderful is Emoni Bates right now? And, he’s not the only one I can name. An undrafted freshman currently has the 4th highest fantasy average among freshman. Need I say more?!!!$$#$#%#&^$**$&%^(*()@(@^%$@#@!!!

    GM Asleep At The Wheel, Because It’s A Total Teardown
    #16: Psychos
    Analysis: Some GM’s appear to like the “stability” of average. The Pyschos roster defines average, fantasy-wise; below-average, actually.
    Problem: They got just about nothing. Agbaji is a good starter at guard. Kensmil a decent 6th man. That’s it.
    Need: A whole new roster. Doesn’t look like much, if anyone, is coming back next year and that’s the good news. The Psychos have all 8 moves left!!! I would use them all to take the most promising (players that will likely play another season next year) sophomores and freshmen (and I would look at them in that order). Even if all 8 turn out to be busts, it won’t be any worse than what they have now. Ouch & ouch, like Dumb & dumber only worse.
    G-Agbaji: 24.7
    G-Plowden: 19.0
    F-Kensmil: 21.6
    F-Wahab: 18.4
    C-T. Williams: 20.6
    6th-R. Davis: 18.3
    FR-Bates: 10.6
    Lineup average: 132.9

    I’m Dancing As Fast As I Can (apologies to “They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?)
    #15: Saluki YRD’s
    Analysis: They have 4 starters…but they need to have 7.
    Problem: They can’t add enough impact players to do anything serious this year and have to decide if they want to go young…now.
    Need: Maybe 3-4 players will return next year. They can start to build a nice roster for next season, now, around Ognacevic, Thomas, and, Roche-who has upside. Besides having 5 moves left, Muszynski & Davis have trade value.
    Special Note: Trades are so rare for some reason, and, the YRD’s made one with the DVG’s. On that basis alone, it’s worth mentioning.
    G-A. Davis: 22.1
    G-T. Thomas: 20.1
    F-Ognacevic: 22.5
    F-Williams: 18.7
    C-Muszynski: 24.6
    6th-Boum: 18.0
    FR-Roche: 16.3
    Lineup average: 142.3

    Time To Go Back Into Treatment…Take Two More And Call Me In The Morning
    #14: Prozac Pups
    Analysis: They must be mellow on the medication to endure this lineup.
    Problem: One stud, some 20 something scorers and two less than mediocre scorers does not a good lineup make.
    Need: They have 4 moves left. They can’t really do that much in terms of trying to get better at the frosh position. But, they can get a better guard (there were several better than Spencer in the FA pool), two forwards and a 6th man who can all put up better numbers than what they have and be a spoiler. Kinda’ like St. John’s, which apparently, will never be good again with a guy named Carnesecca coaching them.
    G-Champagnie: 27.3
    G-Spencer: 21.6
    F-Joseph: 21.2
    F-Harper: 20.3
    C-Stephens: 22.7
    6th-Battle: 17.8
    FR-Holmes: 15.0
    Lineup average: 145.9

    Too Much Deadwood In The Gang
    #13: The Deadwood Gang
    Analysis: They got Freeman & Banchero in the draft but fizzle out, otherwise and it’s hurt them.
    Problem: Like most teams, guards…teams that passed up taking guards in the draft from a plump FA pool, that is.
    Need: They are 4 positions short in terms of starters. They have 6 moves left so they are not terminal yet, but, like an anti-vaxxer on intubation, the IV drip has started and the life support apparatus is waiting in the wings.
    G-Cook: 20.1
    G-Sherfield: 19.0
    F-Freeman: 25.9
    F-Scott: 20.3
    C-Golden: 23.0
    6th-Coleman: 18.1
    FR-Banchero: 21.9
    Lineup average: 148.3

    What Are You Doing Here?!
    Michigan Finally Beat Ohio State. Are You Pro-Harbaugh?
    #12: Maize and Blue Bloods
    Analysis: Personal disclosure…In the 8th grade, something was going on with me (I didn’t and don’t know what) but I was drifting, let’s call it, in school. So, having not done very much of my homework (they gave “U’s” for that), despite having all passing grades and good marks for attitude, I was told that I needed to go to “SA,” which was Social Adjustment, instead of homeroom each morning until I showed improvement. Although I didn’t have him for a teacher, the science teacher, when reading the roll (and, I was the 3rd name called alphabetically), read my name and then repeated it loudly, and, questioningly…Benezra!? What the hell are you doing here?! I just sort of shrugged, but, that solved my “drifting” problem. I was embarassed by the fact that he knew of me, and, obviously, didn’t expect me to be there, and, also, that he had some expectation of something better from me. I “did my time” and got out of “SA” and never went back. Thank you Mr. Miller! All of that explains how shocking it is to see the MBB this low (although, obviously, they are better than their record) as I thought they did have the best lineup, post-draft, pre-season.
    Problem: They got some problems. The biggest is that Grayson Murphy, the triple-double threat, who was Mr. Consistency, is not good enough to be in the lineup. Secondly, Kinsey, who was also a stud last year is really struggling with his shooting and is now a negative spread player who doesn’t get Anthony Davis-like volume as far as FGA’s to compensate for it. That’s 50 fppg out of the lineup vs. last year. That’s a 10 point drop right there that they can’t make up. And, they are hurting at the frosh slot.
    Need: Impact forwards, yes, plural, and, an impact guard. They can also still add a better freshman than they have-but, I would keep Reid for sure. They have no depth, of course, but, they have 6 moves to get it done. Still, all that means they have a shot at being a Final Four team but will likely not be that good.
    G-K. Davis: 25.1
    G-Scheierman: 22.8
    F-Funk: 23.7
    F-Omier: 21.2
    C-McKinnis: 23.9
    6th-Lewis: 19.9
    FR-Reid: 15.5
    Lineup average: 152.1

    I Hope He Didn’t Fall In The Hole If He Went Ice Fishing
    #11: Sam Jacobson Went To Class
    Analysis: The “Sammies” have a fascination with all things Minnesota, particularly the state’s DI players and I have a fascination with the “Sammies.” He has a stud, a semi-stud, a part-time stud, a “deep roller” (apologies to Hannibal Lecter), and an underachiever or two. It’s an interesting mix.
    Problem: Has Lee finally arrived? I don’t think 24.3 is sustainable from him but he should remain 20+. M. Smith should be much better.
    Need: An impact guard or two, and, a BPA for the 6th man slot. Marfo as a depth player is the mark of a strong lineup, as a starter, not so much. They do have a real “darkhorse” lineup, however, one that could hit their stride come playoff time and have a real shot.
    G-Lee: 24.3
    G-M. Smith: 19.9
    F-Haase: 25.0
    F-Anosike: 23.9
    C-Mostafa: 27.4
    6th-Marfo: 19.7
    FR-Baldwin: 17.5
    Lineup average: 157.7

    Beverly Hills Has Softened Them Up Too Much. They Spend All Their Time Down By The Cement Pond
    #10: Hillbilly Maulers
    Analysis: They waited too long to analyze their roster and it has cost them the season despite making a real nice impact add in Devoe and a good but not great move in Shumate since there were better forwards still in the FA pool.
    Problem: The obvious, forward(s) and the 6th man slot.
    Need: They don’t have to blow it all up, but, shockingly, they too have all 8 moves available! They probably only have 2-3 returning from this roster, so, IMHO, they should try to get younger. It’s something Rick Barnes would do if he had this situation…
    G-Devoe: 30.7
    G-Barcello: 22.1
    F-Shumate: 24.7
    F-Gardner: 19.4
    C-Bacot: 24.3
    6th-Camara: 15.8
    FR-Duren: 21.6
    Lineup average: 158.6

    But It’s Too Late Baby, Yeah, It’s Too Late (apologies to Carole King)
    #9: The Hoop Guru
    Analysis: No true stud. They finally made some moves (did they go to the fortune teller?), and, for the most part, they were good, but, it was too late to get what they want to be a real factor this season.
    Problem: No single huge problem, it was just the time they took to try and do something about the roster. They still don’t have a real impact guard and they have no backup freshman both in case of injury and/or scheduling.
    Need: They are now a good, competitive team, just nothing special. They can’t really do much more looking at what’s left in the FA pool as far as trying to get good enough to make a run for the title. I would start wheeling and dealing for next year, now.
    G-Young: 22.0
    G-Maldonado: 22.0
    F-Horne: 24.3
    F-Ohams: 24.1
    C-Koloko: 27.2
    6th-Kirkwood: 20.6
    FR-Brown: 20.3
    Lineup average: 160.5

    Been To A Smash And Grab In The Bay Area Lately?
    #8: Hardwood Heroes
    Analysis: Schedule unkind? They do not have a bad lineup…except for one guard position.
    Problem: Being a Cal fan, I would think it’s obvious. Get rid of that suckwad Bruin, Juzang. Andre Kelly would be much better.
    Need: Get the two best guards available & get the best forward available. They have 7 moves remaining. This GM has a chance to get into the dance (Final Four) if he can step up his game.
    G-Alexander: 22.3
    G-Juzang: 16.6
    F-Nance: 26.3
    F-T. Smith: 25.3
    C-Castleton: 23.9
    6th-Mballa: 23.2
    FR-Holmgren: 24.6
    Lineup average: 162.2

    Just Put Your Big Toe In The Water (transaction pool) And Check The Temperature. There Are No Gators or Snapping Turtles In There.
    #7: Hoosiers
    Analysis: There’s some turkey and stuffing, but, the rest of the sides are just so-so.
    Problem: Guard, of course. If they had any, McGowens and his 21.3 would be in the frosh slot and we’d be talking about how they are a lock for the finals. They also have no quality depth.
    Need: Two impact guards. The Hoosiers, like most teams don’t like to trade. But, they also don’t even like to make adds from the FA pool. They made just one, to pick up a kid that they can’t play because he sucks. That’s how rusty they are! Well, they have 7 moves left and that’s enough to get it done. They missed out on the “sure-thing” impact guards, but, there are some “suspects” who could be impact players, and, are certainly better bets than they have.
    G-McGowens: 21.3
    G-Gillespie: 20.4
    F-Jackson-Davis: 30.3
    F-Assadullah: 22.8
    C-Aimaq: 31.5
    6th-Tubelis: 20.7
    FR-Mohammed: 17.5
    Lineup average: 164.5

    You Can Cover Them Up With Some Makeup, But, The Warts Are Still There
    #6: KC Warthogs
    Analysis:
    Problem: Problems…Rollins is a negative spread fantasy player, so, you can’t count on him…he ain’t Anthony Davis yet. Moore should be good all year long but will dip in ACC play. Sow, is a “meh” pickup to me. I don’t trust his numbers to stay where they are at all. Edey is going to slip. In other words, this lineup has more downside than upside come conference play time.
    Need: They still have 4 moves to make before some Missouri chef decides they are ready to be barbecued. They need a guard, a forward, and, a center, in that order. They can still be a Final Four level team.
    G-Holden: 25.0
    G-Rollins: 21.0
    F-Moore: 27.4
    F-Sow: 24.7
    C-Edey: 23.0
    6th-Butler: 24.6
    FR-Ingram: 19.3
    Lineup average: 165.0

    They Look Pretty. But Can They Fight? (apologies to the “Dirty Dozen”)
    #5: Vindaloos
    Analysis: Looks good, doesn’t it. Good spreads abound. Best center in fantasy basketball this year. Just added Slawson…that looks like a pretty good get to me. Hayden Brown will produce.
    Problem: Need a guard, and, Days could slip more and/or be more erratic come SEC play. He’s not built to be “the man,” but that’s what he is expected to be. I’m also not sure if Colby Jones (who I do really like) was really the best FA guard available. He has a phenomenal spread but the lack of fga’s per game worries me about his consistency, moving forward.
    Need: So, they only need two players and for the most part, the GM has taken guys with good spreads. Vins’ have 5 moves left to add two guards and the BPA for the 6th slot, just in case, along with a backup center. I know the Terps just had Turgeon resign, but the Vin’s have to buck up and get through this transtion period as they can be a Final Four team with the right adds.
    G-C. Jones: 24.3
    G-Stevens: 20.8
    F-Slawson: 27.1
    F-H. Brown: 23.7
    C-Tshiebwe: 34.4
    6th-Days: 21.8
    FR-Hawkins: 17.9
    Lineup average: 170.0

    It’s Slippage, Not Shrinkage I tell You (apologies to George Costanza)
    #4: North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
    Analysis: Their #1 draft pick has the 11th best fantasy average on their roster (sorry, I couldn’t resist rubbing that in-but, in my own way, I do hurt for you) and they are still formidable.
    Problem: Morales needs to get out of Covid hell. Dickinson needs to bump up 3 fppg. And, they need a 6th man because the fabulous Bean will see some serious slippage, and Martinez should see some.
    Need: I know that they are in it to win it, so, it’s absolutely confounding to me that North Pole has all 8 moves left! By the end of the 2nd week of play they should have had enough information to add two impact guards, one impact center and an impact BPA and I would be writing about how they cannot be stopped. Instead, while it is a good lineup, actually, very good, it is not great.
    G-Morales: 26.5
    G-T. Brown: 23.1
    F-Bean: 38.3
    F-Martinez: 28.0
    C-Dickinson: 19.1
    6th-Fausett: 18.7
    FR-Chandler: 19.8
    Lineup average: 173.5

    It May Taste Like chicken, But, It’s Still King Of The Swamp
    #3: Gator Bait
    Analysis: One of the stronger GM’s in the league, he not only realized early that he had a problem at the freshman position, he acted on it and he got not one, but, two impact freshman-something that’s very hard to do. He has a very strong lineup. Very strong.
    Problem: None, really, but, since I am paid (or, not paid) to be picky, I see some possible weakness at the guard position. Of course, he can always move Armstrong to a guard spot. And, he’s possibly one impact player short. I say that because while Abmas figures to be better than how he played early on, without Obanor, he is likely going to be good and/or very good but probably not the 2020-2021 version of Abmas that we saw. Crunching the numbers I am not a Randolph fan, and, that was a surprising move-although, again, not a bad one, but a move that could’ve been made way later.
    Need: If he can find an impact guard and another impact BPA, then, like a small handful of the elite, he could be the favorite. Disregard the record at this time of the year.
    G-Wright: 22.6
    G-Randolph: 22.2
    F-Prim: 31.1
    F-Liddell: 27.9
    C-O. Robinson: 29.1
    6th-Abmas: 21.9
    FR-Armstrong: 24.4
    Lineup average: 179.2

    Who Are These Guys? (Apologies To Butch & Sundance)
    #2: Deep Valley Grouchos
    Analysis: DVG’s are going to see some serious “slippage,” among their high end studs but they are still fairly loaded.
    Problem: Speaking of slippage, how far down will Seabron & Murray drop? Seabron almost literally doesn’t take an outside shot. ACC play will be more difficult for him although he will still be one of the top rebounding guards. Murray should continue to average 25+ but the Big Ten will also see him dropping unless Iowa suddenly decides to include Rebraca (who can score) more in their offense. And, in a trend that started last year, there is still a concern about their guards. Flowers, is struggling with the addition of a transfer on the LIU team, as is Eral Penn. One or both needs to get it together & be who they were.
    Need: Basile is going to bump up significantly come conference play and that can move Broome over to a forward slot if need be, since he also figures to bump up a little in conference. Robinson shows promise (again, conference play should see him bump up & be consistent), and, if A. Taylor continues a rise that has him looking like last year’s A. Taylor, then, guard is not an emergency for them, but, getting an impact guard would be huge since this is a roster that has a shot at the whole thing.
    G-Seabron: 31.6
    G-Holden: 27.3
    F-Murray: 32.4
    F-Cain: 29.4
    C-Broome: 24.0
    6th-Basile: 21.7
    FR-Hutchins-Everett: 20.3
    Lineup average: 186.3

    You Owe Me
    #1: Virginia Gentlemen
    Analysis: Like the announcer who says that so and so has made his last 19 free throws in a row and then the kid misses (announcer jinx), I always rate VG highly at the beginning of the year and am usually disappointed of late (my bad, don’t mean to jinx them). However, since they have two players that are STUDS in their lineup due to my dropping them over the past two seasons, I feel no need to apologize. These Gentlemen are loaded.
    Problem: I don’t think they have a significant one in any area. I do see some slippage, something that all of the higher-scoring teams this time of year will see. The question is how much. I think Freeman-Liberty is for real but his rebounding will dip in Big East play and his shooting percentage will come down. Let’s peg him at around 25+. That’s still a “stud” figure. It’s hard to say with Lofton, who should fall out of bed and average 25+ fppg. Dillon Jones is a great rebounder so his “floor” is still high. Even if “The Cockburn” dips to 25+, so what? My greatest concern would be Brown slipping under 20 as Wasihngton’s only real threat.
    Need: Depth is good, at forward, center, and, the frosh spot. Get a couple more guards. Might feel painful to drop somebody, but they have 2 moves to find a guard or, two, and, if they do, they will win the title.
    G-Freeman-Liberty: 31.0
    G-Roddy: 27.9
    F-Lofton: 28.3
    F-D. Jones: 25.0
    C-Cockburn: 31.4
    6th-T. Brown: 22.0
    FR-J. Smith: 23.3
    Lineup average: 188.9

  12. At The Break…A Brief Look At The MML After 7 Weeks
    An argument can certainly be made, that in using total points instead of scoring averages, as is done come playoff time, that everything is skewed. After all, all of us are chasing games (playing weaker players who have more games in a given week than a better player), so some of the better players aren’t in the lineup as much, etc., etc. Plus, you have players from smaller schools usually not scoring as much when playing vs. bigger schools in pre-conference games-while, they should score more in conference games, etc., etc. And, we still have Covid affecting the availability of players. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. So, the won-loss records don’t reall mean all that much-except for the teams that have hardly won any games and whose team averages show that they don’t have enough firepower. But trends are apparent.

    Teams with explosive ability, or, big play performers: In no particular order these would be the DVG’s, Gator Bait, and The Virginia Gentlemen. These are the teams with players in the lineup that can give an opponent pause, as in…man, I hope we can keep him from getting 30, 30+. There are other teams that have these type of players but not as many as the above teams. The DVG’s have 4-5, GB has 4-5, the VG’s have 4. Having big play guys is huge come playoff time where having a player go for 30+ can boost up another player who has had a bad game and/or bad week. Each team has an issue or two. The DVG’s look good statistically but have instability at their guard position. I would venture the same regarding the GB’s and probably a mild concern that Prim isn’t quite the Prim of 2020-2021. The VG’s actually have the steadiest lineup, no real concerns, and, some quality depth. This is why I consider these three teams as having the best chance to get to the final.

    A notch below we find: North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer, Sam Jacobson Went To Class, and, the Vindaloos. NPFR has pretty consistently gotten a good team spread each week. That counts for something come playoff time. They have one player with that explosive ability, but, they have another 4 who can occasionally go big. They have a solid lineup and a very good freshman. Depth is a question mark, as in, quality depth. The Sams? They have 3 guys who can be explosive and another 3 players who can put up good numbers. They also have a good lineup and a good freshman and some quality depth. The Vins have 3 explosive players (including the top center in fantasy basketball-28 fricking rebounds! Cowabunga man!) and a guard issue. They have a decent freshman.

    Interesting but: Hillbilly Maulers, Hoosiers, KC Warthogs, Maize And Blue Bloods. HM has 5 really good players and a very good freshman but I have concerns about 3 of those 5 players being not only as good come conference play as they are now, but, the possibility of taking some wild dips in performance. The Hoosiers have two explosive players, good freshman and some nice guys. KC has really struggled but I can’t throw them under the bus yet, as they are sprinting to try and get on the bus. MBB has one explosive player, two real nice players and three returning players who were studs or near studs, that have all been very disappointing thus far. That’s truly bad luck. One, yeah. Two, occasionally. But, three returning guys with a proven track record all falling off? That’s just bad luck.

    The rest? Well, they need to clean out their locker rooms. There is a lot of trash to be taken out. Hardwood Heroes can drop 5. Prozac Pups can cut 3. Psychos can cut 6. Saluki YRD’s can cut 5. The Deadwood Gang can cut 4. The Hoop Guru can drop 3.

    1. The Numbers Don’t Lie…But, Do They Tell All?
      A stat to note: For the past few years I have been keeping track of the total number of players put up 20 fantasy points or more in my active lineups in regular season games only. Although the sampling is still relatively small, in terms of the number of years I have recorded it, a trend (natch) has emerged.

      2017-2018 NOTE: 59.47% of all players games in starting lineup were 20+. Scored 20+ fantasy points per man in 91 out of 153 regular season games.
      2018-2019 NOTE: 58.8% of all players games in starting lineup were 20+. Scored 20+ fantasy points per man in 96 out of 163 regular season player games.
      2019-2020 NOTE: 54.81% of all players games in starting lineup were 20+. Scored 20+ fantasy points per man in 79 out of 149 regular season player games.
      2020-2021 NOTE: 50.4% of all players games in starting lineup were 20+. Scored 20+ fantasy points per man in 56 out of 117 regular season player games (9 weeks instead of 11).
      2021-2022 NOTE: 58.4% of all players games in starting lineup are 20+. Scored 20+fantasy points per man in 59 out of 101 regular season player games.

      In 2017-2018 we won the championship and in 2018-2019 we got to the championship. That alone does not make the above stats conclusive, as to what percentage of your games you need to have active players scoring 20 or more fantasy points, but, in a league of numbers, like inches, everything adds up to something. We took a good tumble in 2019-2020. Due to Covid, I don’t know how real 2020-2021 was, but, still, the numbers don’t lie as went under .500, just barely getting over the 50% mark.

      So, to me, I think the above indicates that I need to have my active players scoring 20 fantasy points or more, at least 58% of the time to have a chance to be in the championship game. That corresponds to the fact that we are having a pretty good season this year and currently have had active players score 20 or more fantasy points in 58.4% of our games.

      When you add in the other stats I have put out there in other posts, like clues in a murder mystery, it all begins to add up. Remember that you are having players score more than 20 fantasy points in those active lineups. 20 is just the floor you want to stay on. If you have 58% or more, you are probably “powerhousing” in some way, if you will, because that 58% indicates that of course, you have some players giving you more than 20 fantasy points per game, which elevates any weaker players who are under 20 fppg, such as freshmen, and, that is why you can afford (although you still don’t want any) to have one player other than a freshman who is under 20, at 18-19 fppg. The “weak” player or players, is being supported, like the government does with dairy farmers. Of course, not counting the freshman, that is still a burden. And, when you look at the top scoring teams in the MML right now, all of them can put out a lineup where each player outside of the freshman can put up 20+fppg, AND, all of them have multiple studs (25+fppg) to plug in as well.

      1. A Flurry of Moves to Talk About
        There have been some interesting moves made in the last couple of weeks. Let’s focus on the better ones, or, seemingly, better: Hillbilly Maulers add Christian Braun & Kobe Brown. These are in the “seemingly” better for different reasons. Braun is a good player, whose usage (FGA’s) fluctuates, but, he does other things well and is usually a pretty efficient player (fg pct., etc. low to’s), and, he gets treys. I like the pick. Especially considering the time of year and who’s still available. As the best player on a mediocre team, Brown gets to be the man but he also gets to be targeted by teams that may want to take him out of the game early. I like the pick, though.

        KC Warthogs took “Eggs” Bennedict Mathurin and David Jones. Mathurin does not consistently play to his talent level. However, now that the new Arizona HC has had his team play a number of games, Mathurin has emerged as their go-to guy, so, while there will be some dips, I like this pick. DePaul doesn’t seem to have a clue about how to really run a good offensive scheme. Jones can be wildly up and down, based more on usage (his downs are usually due to lack of FGA’s) but is talented. An inconsistent rebounder who has shown flashes of being a great rebounder. I like this pick, although I like him much more for next season when the great gunner, Freeman-Liberty has departed and they have to rely on Jones.

        Deep Valley Grouchos (DVG’s) picked up Jordan Hall and Jonathan Davis. These were not “panic picks,” as I had been looking at them for some time, but, I did add two guards who do not fit the standards I prefer due to the time of the year and what was left in the FA pool. Hall is a “stat-stuffer,” (scores, gets treys, rebounds well, gets assists) but also a poor percentage shooter who turns it over a lot and is up and down. In my situation, what I liked about him is that he is going to get his shots and he really does run the team. With one guard currently on the roster who is in an historic shooting slump, another who doesn’t seem willing to take many shots despite being the top player on the team, and another who doesn’t shoot the trey, I felt that I needed an AGGRESSIVE shot taker who always goes with the “damn the torpedos, full speed ahead” type of philosophy. It’s up to me to use him in the optimal situations, schedule-wise. As for Davis, I like a guard to have a minimum of +4.0 spread. He does not. However, again, I wanted a high volume shooter in terms of FGA’s. Davis plays for a very young Wisconsin team and he is the man. I normally don’t take a Wisconsin perimeter player, as they just don’t let them go enough for them to be good fantasy players. But, they are letting Davis play. He gets lots of shots and takes treys. He rebounds the ball well for a guard and thus far no opponent has been able to limit his FGA’s. Again, it is up to me as the GM to make good choices, schedule-wise. And, while Hall figures to enter the draft after the season, Davis may play one more year; a possible added bonus. I was looking for gunners. If I am going to go down in the playoffs, I will go down firing instead of having better fantasy players playing passively. I NEEDED two guards like this…so, I like the picks but don’t love the picks.

        Sam Jacobson Went To Class added Isaiah Mobley and Alondes Williams. After looking like he needed a suply of lollipops to get through the season without his departed NBA younger brother, Mobley has really produced numbers. He is a double-double guy who hits a good percentage, makes the occasional three, and, while still poor, is a better FT shooter. Could possibly wind up being a great pick. Jury is out on Williams but I like this pick even more. The reason the jury is out is that I looked inside his numbers by exploring his game to game numbers. His fantasy average is greatly padded by having had big numbers vs. weak opponents. His numbers vs. quality opponents are so-so. So, why do I like this pick? Somebody has to step up for Wake Forest. They did just get LaRavia back, which while taking some “action” away from Williams will also help him because defenses should not be able to focus on him as much. He needs to improve his shooting. If he does, like Mobley, this could possibly wind up being a great pick.

        Maize and Blue Bloods made a couple of interesting adds because I don’t think they had a great need at their primary positions in taking Ryan Kalkbrenner and Walker Kessler. Kalkbrenner is a soph center who figures to be a four year player. His spread is tremendous (+9.7) and Creighton seems to be including him more in their offense. Potentially, a great pick. Kessler is also a sophomore who is also doing great, spread-wise (+10.3) DESPITE the fact that Bruce Pearl has no clue (never has, not being an offensive coach) with what to do with him to maximize his and the team’s offensive potential. Kessler also plays forward. For a minute, I thought that MBB was writing off this season and playing for next season now. However, adding Kalkbrenner to the starting center position enables him to bump McKinnis to a forward position, which is a small, but, positive improvement.

  13. Hopefully COVID will not impact our tourneys. Postponements/cancellations have gone down to just a handful or fewer a night. Instead of cancellations we’re getting finishes like IU-Purdue nightly (Nova-Marq and RI-LaSalle the night before), FSU- Duke the night before.

    thanks Grouchos for the insights. Fun reads even if Covid did suck some of the life out my college hoops December

  14. Playoff Look
    Strength In Numbers
    4 teams simply have shown more firepower this season. History shows that the champion will not necessarily be one of the highest scoring teams, but, history also shows that is a VERY strong indicator. However, as I have stated earlier this season, I think there are quite a few teams that could make a run, but, I will start with the statistical favorites. In no particular order that would be the Deep Valley Grouchos (DVG’s), Gator Bait, Maize & Blue Bloods, and Virginia Gentlemen. Let’s use the best lineups (which includes all games played, active & inactive) to see what the numbers show us.
    The Lineup averages:
    DVG’s: 177.5
    Virginia Gentlemen: 172.8

    Gator Bait: 167.0
    Maize and Blue Bloods: 165.1

    Vindaloos: 164.3
    North Pole Fightin Reindeer: 163.0
    Sam Jacobson Went To Class: 161.2
    Hardwood Heroes: 161.1

    Prozac Pups: 158.4
    Hillbilly Maulers: 157.1
    Hoosiers: 153.1
    KC Warthogs: 152.6

    Psychos: 148.9
    The Hoop Guru: 148.1
    Saluki YRD’s: 147.6
    The Deadwood Gang: 145.2

    Active points per man, per game:
    23.5-DVG’s=164.5

    21.4-Gator Bait=149.8
    21.4-Virginia Gentlemen=149.8
    21.1-Maize and Blue Bloods=147.7

    20.9-Vindaloos=146.3
    20.3-North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer=142.1
    20.1-Sam Jacobson Went To Class=140.7
    20.1-Hoosiers=140.7

    19.6-Prozac Pups=137.2

    18.8-Hardwood Heroes=131.6
    18.7-The Deadwood Gang=130.9
    18.5-KC Warthogs=129.5
    18.1-Hillbilly Maulers=126.7

    17.6-The Hoop Guru=123.2
    17.2-Saluki YRD’s=120.4

    16.9-Psychos=118.3
    What I think it all means: I am experimenting with a new way of trying to get MORE meaning out of the stats, so, bear with me. The following has not been proved out yet and I may be all wet with where I am with this, thus far. I am looking for a statistical mean to try and determine a mid-point if you will, of seeing if a team is going to score more or less than what I think is the statistical mean based on the team spread per game ( a “predictor”)-for example, the DVG’s 23.5 is a very strong stat. Despite some erratic play, it didn’t change much at all over the course of the year. And, here is how I figure this stat’s importance vs. the lineup stats. I take the 23.5 and times it by 7, the number of players in the starting lineup. Now, of course, the players in the lineup will vary, but this would produce a total of 164.5 vs. the DVG’s lineup total of 177.5. Remember that reaching that lineup total is a seldom seen thing, like a comet. However, I DO put stock in the 164.5. That is something that is more likely to happen, game in and game out. Not that exact number, but, hitting the range of 160-165 is what I am expecting. Think of it as a sort of over/under type of thing. That is a high number, even over just the 4 playoff games, but the numbers show that it’s doable for my team-certainly a more “true” number than the 177.5 I get from adding up my lineup’s scoring averages. Do I expect that to happen? No. Experience tells me that we will likely get 1-2 games under 160-but, hopefully, not too far under, and, we will likely get at least one game over 165. Another reason I think this may be a good indicator is that if you double each team’s total from this (figuring that a 7 man lineup most of the time will play 14 games), say for example, the DVG’s 164.5 would equal 329.0 (the number of points a team would score for that week by doubling the total of 164.5). On the season the DVG’s team average was 335.82 (remember, you don’t play exactly 14 games per week)-meaning I think I am onto something with this stat. I love stats, so, I am curious to see how this works out.

    Active spread average per man:
    6.97 Maize and Blue Bloods

    5.98 Vindaloos
    5.65 Deep Valley Grouchos
    5.65 Virginia Gentlemen
    5.63 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
    5.51 Prozac Pups

    5.21 Hardwood Heroes
    5.14 KC Warthogs

    4.90 Sam Jacobson Went To Class
    4.85 The Deadwood Gang
    4.74 Hillbilly Maulers
    4.62 Hoosiers

    4.41 Gator Bait

    3.81 The Hoop Guru

    2.56 Psychos
    2.39 Saluki YRD’s
    SUMMARY: Why is this stat so significant? Well, it shows why some teams are more competitive than they should be based on what their scoring averages show, and, why others, who appear strong, have some vulnerability. For instance, Gator Bait is one of the 4 highest scoring teams in the league and has the 2nd best lineup average. However, their 4.41 spread shows that this year’s version of Gator Bait has to have a good field goal percentage to win games against other top teams who are “on,” their game. It is shocking to see them under 5.0! It tells you how good they are when they are “on,” and how easy it is for them to go down if they are not on and also receiving the kindness of a poor performance from their opponent. They are the most “fragile” of the elite teams. MBB shows why they are a “tough out” every week with their staggering spread of almost 7.0. The Vindaloos show why they are capable of being in the game with anybody. North Pole & Prozac show why they are strong candidates to pull of an upset of a higher rated and higher scoring opponent.

    Guard tandems:
    Sam Jacobson Went To Class-52.6
    Virginia Gentlemen-50.0

    North Pole Fightin’ Reinder-49.4
    DVG’s-49.1
    Maize and Blue Bloods-48.4

    Saluki YRD’s-46.7

    KC Warthogs-45.9
    Vindaloos-45.8
    Gator Bait-45.3
    Hardwood Heroes-45.3
    Psychos-45.0

    The Hoop Guru-44.9
    Hillbilly Maulers-44.8
    Prozac Pups-44.0

    The Deadwood Gang-40.2

    Hoosiers-38.2

    Forward tandems:
    DVG’s-57.1
    Maize and Blue Bloods-53.2
    North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer-51.4

    Virginia Gentlemen-48.9
    Gator Bait-48.4

    Hoosiers-47.8
    Sam Jacobson-47.6
    Vindaloos-47.5

    Hardwood Heroes-46.3

    Prozac Pups-45.7
    Hillbilly Maulers-45.3

    The Hoop Guru-44.7
    KC Warthogs-44.4

    Saluki YRD’s-43.2
    The Deadwood Gang-42.5
    Psychos-42.2
    NOTE: The above averages are not the team average each week based on the number of points the team scored for a week. They are the averages of the players totaled up and that is what we will be doing for the playoffs.Averages usually drop during the playoffs. Each team will generally beat their average at least once, and, some lucky stiff or two may do it twice, but, in general, teams are going to score less. Why? Because you must remember that these are the optimal averages for each player and only once every thousand games or so are you going to see every player in the starting lineup equal or exceed his season scoring average. So, how does a team ever score more? Simple. Certain players will come up with huge games while others score less than their average, but, not significantly less. I thought it would be interesting to list the tandem averages at the guard & forward positions of each team.

    DVG’s
    Emergence: Flowers has finally gotten himself into a groove and is playing like he has over the prior two years which is a real plus come playoff time.
    Concern #1: Despite his being in the top 10 all season and mostly in the top 5 for freshman scorers, Taylor’s low’s can be really low.
    Concern #2: Despite the averages, there are issues with all 3 guards. Seabron hardly attempts treys and teams stack their defenses to stop his scorching dribble drives to the basket-which means NC State sees a lot of zones and that Seabron sometimes can’t get FGA’s. Fortunately, he is a “stat-stuffer,” but, he can be slowed down. Davis has no spread to speak of. While he leads Wisconsin in rebounding and gets some assists, he takes a lot of shots (good) but if he’s off, particularly in making trey’s, he can be in the teen’s more than the 20’s and teams really try to bottle him up every time out, even more so than Seabron. Holden, for a long time was not getting enough FGA’s. Now he is, but, their team has no rhythm and while he is the most consistent of the three guards he is also the most likely to get 15-20 fppg, instead of 21-25 fppg.
    Strength: Forwards & centers. DVG’s are loaded at those two positions.
    G-Seabron-25.6
    G-Davis-23.5
    F-Flowers-26.8
    F-Murray-30.3
    C-Broome-26.5
    6th-Cain-26.6
    FR-Taylor-18.2
    Total AVG: 177.5
    Key subs: F/C-Basile-22.4; G-Holden-21.7
    COMMENT: This is my team and in a good way, I am actually not sure of my best lineup. Davis had a plus spread of just 1.6-so, depending on the opponent and place he is the most vulnerable. Basile is also very solid and does a lot of things well and could easily replace Cain-the most “mercurial” of the starters. The DVG’s get consistency from Flowers, Murray & Broome, so, they do get that.

    Gator Bait
    Emergence: Pride has been way better since, I don’t know, mid-December and is now a strength.
    Disappointment: Prim…he’s just way too “proper” this year. Prim was a stud last year, and, now, at 21.6 fppg, GB has to think about when to play him. His scoring average is way down and it’s almost as if his college coach has decided that he shouldn’t be the man for some reasons. Also, John Michael-Wright. Wright is a high volume scorer (has to take & make a lot of shots to get fantasy points, can be a negative spread guy, etc., etc.), but, I thought a good one. However, he is averaging less than 20 fppg, lower this his output from last year and is a “risk.”
    My Bad: I got no problem in saying I was wrong. I was not a huge fan of Liddell, because he had never been a decent rebounder. I would still like to see more than 7.3 rpg from him, but, that’s good enough and he’s making his “pro drive” and is legit.
    Strength: Robinson at center is tough to stop, night in and night out and makes up for Timme.
    Best addition: Austin, by far! What a great frosh add, and, again, GB beat me by minutes as I had decided that I was going to add him.
    Acquisitions: I loved their addition of Akec. I know he’s not doing quite as well of late but he is a strong pickup. Better yet, showing his concern over the center position, GB has just picked up center Sukhmail Mathon. For those of you NOT keeping score (how was he still available?!) he slots in as the 3rd leading scorer on their roster, meaning he will impact for them.
    G-Abmas-22.5
    G-Pride-22.2
    F-Liddell-26.4
    F-Mushila-23.7
    C-Robinson-26.7
    6th-Mathon-24.6
    FR-Austin-21.3
    Total AVG: 167.0
    Key subs: F-Prim-21.6; F/C-Timme-20.9; G-Randolph-20.9; Akec-20.8
    COMMENT: When I do these analysis “thingies,” I’m not doing it to get into anybody’s head. Again, I look at each lineup as if it were mine. I take frequent looks at every team’s roster during the course of the season to be familiar with them, their perceived strengths and weaknesses. GB has the most possible starting lineups, as far as quality goes (based on what teams they are playing, giving him some interesting lineup choices he can make. While GB’s best lineup averages roughly 10 fppg less than the DVG’s, they are a little less erratic, not so much of an “E” ticket ride. Similar to just about every team in the league, their guard play will make the difference for them in the playoffs.

    Maize & Blue Bloods
    Lineup stabilizing moves: While none are “heavy-hitters,” adding Kalkbrenner and Kessler were huge moves for MBB.
    Emergence: “The Pearl” while still scratching his head at what to do with Kessler on offense, at least has players who know what to do and with Kessler seeing the ball a little more, combining those few extra fga’s with his rebounds and blocks, means that he is scoring more than his season average tells us.
    Strength: Production and consistency from the best guard tandem in all of fantasy basketball. Scheierman recently went 3-5 from the field and still produced 25 fantasy points! Davis is always on. Unlike every other team in the league, MBB has guards they can count on.
    Team strength: Consistency is the strength of this team as these guys usually get pretty close to their averages and when they don’t, the drop isn’t nearly as steep as we see on all the other teams.
    Adversity: MBB had to overcome the loss of two of their best players in Kinsey (has really struggled for most of the year) and Grayson Murphy. Both were productive and consistent and both are hardly ever in the lineup now.
    Discovery: MBB found one of the top 5 frosh when they added Traore, who has really stabilized their lineup as their frosh play was killing them.
    G-Scheierman-24.5
    G-Davis-23.9
    F-Omier-29.6
    F-McKinnis-23.6
    C-Kalkbrenner-22.6
    6th-Kessler-22.5
    FR-Traore-18.5
    Total AVG: 165.1
    Key subs: F-Funk-21.8, F-Lewis-20.8, G/F Kinsey-19.6. It’s been a horrible shooting year for Kinsey, but of late, he has been more good than bad and may be battling back. A year ago he was a 25+fppg stud.
    COMMENT: In the pre-season I said that nobody had a better lineup…and, nobody did…until they started playing the games. Who knew that after two years Grayson Murphy would become a “can’t play him,” and practically ditto for Taevion Kinsey. And, with bad frosh scoring, they looked very average. But the GM did a yeoman’s job of finding good bodies and here they are. No, they don’t have the most talented lineup, but, I think that they may have the best lineup because the one bad week and you’re out playoffs is a format that values consistency and I don’t see another team that has a lineup that is as consistent as they are week in and week out. They are also HOT!

    Virginia Gentlemen
    Question: VG has had a pretty darn good roster that I’ve been trumpeting for awhile (not just this year) and has underachieved to my way of thinking. Am I jinxing him?
    Disappointment? Let’s just get this out of the way right now…I don’t think they really have any.
    Concerns: Freeman-Liberty has been good way more than not, but, is still capable of some duds. LaRavia, who does a lot of things well, doesn’t rebound like he should at his size and doesn’t get a lot of shots, so, he has to usually hit a high percentage to get good numbers.
    How about an acknowledgement…or, two: Last year I gave up on Roddy too soon (bad, bad move) and dropped him. Did I at least get a two pound box of assorted Sees chocolates? No. A 1 pound plus dark chocolate bar from Trader Joe’s? No. Nada, zilch, zero. This year, I dropped Lofton (not because he was bad but because his coach was truly inhibiting his ability to put up big numbers-so while it was a bad move, I knew that Lofton was a stud but couldn’t wait to see if his own college coach knew…call me impatient at worst). Do I find a gift card in the mail? No. Even a crappy medium one topping pizza from Dominoe’s delivered? No. Geesh, what does a guy have to do to get some appreciation!
    Strengths: Outside of LaRavia it’s a very strong rebounding lineup and that is the absolute bedrock foundation of every outstanding fantasy team.
    G-Roddy-25.7
    G-Freeman-Liberty-24.3
    F-Lofton-25.9
    F-Dillon Jones-24.1
    C-“The Cockburn”-29.3
    6th-LaRavia-23.6
    FR-J. Smith-19.9
    Total AVG: 172.8
    Key subs: F/C-Painter-22.7, G-Bouyea-22.0
    COMMENT: What is there not to like, would be my answer in question form! They have depth where it is most crucial, at center, guard, and, the frosh position.They have 3 studs (25+ is a stud) and two just a point below that standard. In my mind, they are the most dangerous team in the league, certainly much better than their season record (remember that season records don’t really mean all that much), and seldom, seldom stink up the joint! If I had to name a favorite for the championship this year, the Gentlemen would get my vote.
    Group Summary: The Maize and Blue Bloods are hot, and, while their lineup is not particularly exciting or explosive, they just do what they do; which is slowly add up those points and before you know it you are saying, it doesn’t look like they have that many points. Gator Bait while very potent and a strong contender for the crown is not getting the week in, week out performances from many of their players that have been accustomed to. Again, while they could win it all, they are also an upset waiting to happen…as are the DVG’s, who despite having more firepower also have the capability of putting up a lot of low games in any given week. Statistically, they look strong, and, they are strong-no doubt about that, but, like GB, they could see a fairly early exit and are no lock for the Final Four. Besides MBB, I do like the Virginia Gentlemen as a strong play to make the Final Four. They have some consistent performers who are also higher end fantasy scorers and that makes them dangerous.

    The Team That Nobody Wants To See In The Playoffs
    Vindaloos
    Late to the party: The Vin’s could’ve had Mushila, Alondes Williams, Isaiah Mobley, Walker Kessler, Johnny Davis, Akec, and/or Mathon, and it could bite them in the you know what. Especially at the guard position.
    Concern #1: Yes, guard. Their guards, like anyone else’s are capable of having some big games, but, when you look at their season averages, you can see that they can be vulnerable at the position.
    Weakness: Not just guard, but, obviously, the depth at the guard position although Trammell (not a fan) at 19.8 is very close to Colby Jones’ anemic (for a starter) 20.4.
    Strength #1: The Vindaloos are the lowest scoring of all 5 teams listed in this section. But, they have also had the best spread all year and spread (as in real mayo and NOT Best Foods…please!) counts even more come playoff time.
    Strength #2: Having the best player in the league in Tshiewbe, counts for a lot, especially when he is a center. Hear ye, hear ye, I hereby pronounce Tshiewbe the best player in all of fantasy college basketball for the 2021-2022 season!!!
    Incognito: So, you say, frosh Payton Sparks is only averaging 17.2 fppg. Why is that a big deal? Because Sparks has been averaging more than 17.2 for a few weeks now. Think of him as a 20+ freshman. In other words, he is a weapon.
    Coming on? Ike, another whose scoring average doesn’t reflect the fact that he has finally learned that rebounding is an imperative when you have a big strong body. Thus, he has been better in conference play.
    G-Mosley-23.4
    G-C. Jones-20.4
    F-Slawson-24.3
    F-H. Brown-23.2
    C-Tshiebwe-33.7
    6th-Ike-21.9
    FR-Sparks-17.4
    Total AVG: 164.3
    Key subs: F-Townsend-21.5
    COMMENT: As mentioned, barring one bad week (if I remember correctly), they have consistently had a good spread week after week and finished 2nd in this team statistic. Couple that with the fact that they are HOT right now, and, that they have “Every center has to give way to Tshiebwe,” and they are an underdog to the other 4 teams in the above section but also a serious darkhorse.

    Contenders or Pretenders?
    Sam Jacobson Went To Class (yes, he went to class, but, after all these years I want to know if he graduated) and the North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer are the two teams that fit the bill.

    Sam Jacobson Went To Class
    Did Their Homework: The reason they are here is that while everyone (I included, who over-analyzed myself out of taking him) passed on Alondes Williams, they didn’t, and, they grabbed Isaiah Mobley. That’s 50.2 fppg for those of you counting at home.
    The Playoffs could be their time: Williams got to do more when a key Wake Forest player went down with an injury. And the coaching staff has been smart enough to let him keep doing more even with the roster back at full strength. Haase, Mostafa, and, Anosike should benefit from weak conference play. Smith & Mobley have been good all year.
    Strength: Great guard tandem & center depth.
    Concern: 15.6 is not horrible at all for a frosh, but, the position is a possible Achilles heel for them-and, just to be clear, Achilles did not wear stilettos…
    G-M. Smith-26.5
    G-A. Williams-26.1
    F-Mobley-24.1
    F-Haase-23.5
    C-Mostafa-22.6
    6th-Anosike-22.8
    FR-Baldwin-15.6
    Total AVG: 161.2
    Key subs: F/C-Osunniyi-21.8, F-Marfo-21.1
    COMMENT: They’ve had the best season in their history and have a higher lineup total than the Vindaloos, so, why are they here? Good question. They are all those things, yet, I think that they haven’t really clicked and why they aren’t more imposing given their bonafidas. However, they are one of those talented teams just below the first tier above that I wouldn’t want to face before the semi’s. But, that’s just me. Contender or pretender? Contender!

    North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
    Did Their Homework: The reason they are here is that while everyone (I included, who over-analyzed myself out of taking him) passed on Alondes Williams, they didn’t, and, they grabbed Isaiah Mobley. That’s 50.2 fppg for those of you counting at home.
    The Playoffs could be their time: Williams got to do more when a key Wake Forest player went down with an injury. And the coaching staff has been smart enough to let him keep doing more even with the roster back at full strength. Haase, Mostafa, and, Anosike should benefit from weak conference play. Smith & Mobley have been good all year.
    Strength: Great guard tandem & center depth.
    Concern: 15.6 is not horrible at all for a frosh, but, the position is a possible Achilles heel for them-and, just to be clear, Achilles did not wear stilettos…
    G-Morales-25.8
    G-T. Brown-23.6
    F-Bean-29.1
    F-Burton-22.3
    C-Dickinson-24.4
    6th-Fausett-21.7
    FR-Chandler-16.1
    Total AVG: 163.0
    Key subs: F/C-Osunniyi-21.8, F-Marfo-21.1
    COMMENT: I think that they haven’t really clicked and why they aren’t more imposing given their bonafidas. However, they are one of those talented teams just below the first tier above that I wouldn’t want to face before the semi’s. But, that’s just me. Contender or pretender? Contender!

    Hey, We’re Not Just Chopped Chicken Liver!
    Prozac Pups
    GM grade: F. Made some poor decisions, IMHO, while a lot of free agent (FA) talent was still around and did not surround the talent they had with enough to become an elite team.
    Strength: The GM did beat me in getting to Stephens last year and he is one of the top 5 centers while Champagnie, while not champagne, is the real thing at guard or forward.
    Nice move: Holmes is a very good freshman.
    A very good producer but…also a disappointment: Champagnie, who, unlike a fine wine, has not aged well. 23.7 is a very, very good average. But, from him, one would certainly expect 25+.
    Disappointing: Harper. He has too much going for him to not be in the starting lineup but just doesn’t assert himself like he should to be a 23+ fppg player.
    Concern: Guards are okay, not great, but, they are very erratic-especially Allen, although he can go “big.” Samuel is having a “rebound year” if you will, after his transfer to a lower level DI school but it’s not great if he has to be in the starting lineup. He would hold more value as a key sub.
    G-Spencer-22.6
    G-Allen-21.4
    F-Champagnie-23.7
    F-Joseph-22.0
    C-Stephens-28.0
    6th-Samuel-22.5
    FR-Holmes-18.2
    Total AVG: 158.4
    Key subs: G-Harper-21.1
    COMMENT: They’re good but not great, so, yes, they are more than just chopped chicken liver, but, I can’t classify them as pate. So, more despite being just a point+ under that 160 level, I say pretender more than contender. A pretender to my way of thinking can upset a stronger team but would need each team they play to have one of their worst weeks of the year to win 4 straight and the title. Not a team you look forward to playing but also not a team that puts the fear of God into you, either.

    Fly In The Ointment
    Hillbilly Maulers
    They have a stud: Bacot is for real.
    Good sign: Sears picking up his numbers.
    Disappointment: Devoe, who came in scoring a ton of points vs. a weak non-con schedule, but has since slipped dramatically as the “marked man” by ACC opponents.
    Disappointment: Barcello. I still like him, but he was around 22 fppg last year. 19 just doesn’t cut it.
    Disappointment #2: Not by me, because I questioned his “studliness,” but to their GM, who expected a lot more from Brown, who is a good player, but, nothing special. Maybe if he stays for one more year he can be that guy.
    G-Sears-23.1
    G-Braun-21.7
    F-Shumate-23.5
    F-Eason-21.8
    C-Bacot-27.6
    6th-Devoe-21.3
    FR-Duren-18.7
    Total AVG: 157.1
    Key subs: F-K. Brown-21.0, G-Barcello-19.0
    COMMENT: Interesting lineup. I like Sears, who has been much better in conference play. I questioned Braun, who I like, due to how he would likely fare in conference play-and, he has been dipping. Eason has also taken a dip in conference play. Devoe has taken a huge slide down from about a month ago. They have guys who are capable of big games, but, it’s just not enough to be more than a one upset and done type of team unless everybody catches fire at the same time.
    SPECIAL NOTE: They drafted a freshman with their first pick. Since they also wound up adding Sears, Braun, Shumate, Eason, Devoe, and, K. Brown, that would indicate that they needed at least 5 starters prior to the draft…kind of makes me go…hmm…

    Hanging Around
    Hoosiers
    Fire the GM: You have two studs at center & forward. You mean to tell me that the ownership didn’t think they had a chance to win a championship and decided to not add 4 good players? Yes, I think so. The two studs are bringing home 53.5 fppg while they don’t have another player on the roster who averages 22 or greater, all the while still sitting on 5 moves they CAN’T make now.
    Take out the trash: They finished with 5 available moves and have 4 dudes that can’t play on their roster.
    Nice move: There were better players available, but Oduro has upside. Mohammed is a good freshman.
    Disappointing: Asadullah has just been okay at 20 fppg, when he was expected to go 23+.
    G-Gillespie-20.4
    G-J. Holmes-17.9
    F-Jackson-Davis-25.9
    F-Oduro-21.9
    C-Aimaq-27.6
    6th-Asadullah-20.1
    FR-Mohammed-18.9
    Total AVG: 153.1
    Key subs: F-Tubelis-19.6
    COMMENT: Not much more to say, is there? Ownership wasn’t involved and they let the GM sit on the couch, eat potato chips and drink cheap beer while the season was rolling towards its inevitable climax. Career “winning” percentage of 36.6% (2nd lowest in MML history) says it all…Change the GM and become a player!
    SPECIAL NOTE: They drafted a freshman with their first pick. Since they have a lineup that has 4 players averaging between 17 & 21.9-which is not good, that would indicate that they needed at least 4 starters prior to the draft…kind of makes me go…hmm…

    Grits, But No Bacon
    KC Warthogs
    Consistency doesn’t always get it done: KC has 7 players averaging between 21.7 & 23.4, and a good freshman. They needed a couple of heavy hitters.
    Good sign: Rollins, a high-volume player, has been raising his level of late.
    Slipping: Wendell Moore has been very good but has been having some struggle games of late in ACC play.
    Disappointment: Butler, at just 19.4. He should be a 23+ guy but he doesn’t get enough jacks.
    Biggest disappointment in the entire MML: Jalen Moore. Moore averaged just a tick under 21 fppg last year. This year, between making even more turnovers than last year and horrific shooting, he’s at 16.7 fppg! Ouch, that hurts!
    I like: Edey. Good chance he doesn’t come out for the draft and if he stays, look for him to be a 25+ fppg player.
    G-Holden-23.4
    G-Rollins-22.5
    F-Sow-22.2
    F-Quinn-22.2
    C-Edey-22.3
    6th-W. Moore-22.1
    FR-Ingram-17.8
    Total AVG: 152.6
    Key subs: G-Mathurin-21.7, G-McKnight-20.6
    COMMENT: This is a good lineup. But, in today’s MML, good just doesn’t cut it. They have gotten an occasional huge game from Holden, Rollins, Edey, and, prior to conference play, W. Moore. But their forwards are not good enough, Rollins is not a consistent 20+producer, Mathurin plays to less than his potential, etc., etc., etc. This team could upset a better team that is having a struggle weak but will struggle to elevate it’s scoring over what you see. They’re in a pretty good position to be a serious contender NEXT year but this is about now.

    Mystery Meat
    Hardwood Heroes
    Use it or lose it: Hardwood “woke up” and made 4 moves just before the deadline. That’s positive.
    One wonders: What if they had “awakened” much earlier when there was real talent available in the FA pool?
    I don’t understand: Their GM must be the greatest in the world or he has something on the commissioner because he was able to drop Tolu Smith, not once, but twice!
    Not to make them feel bad…but: With the talent that was available, they could have added some real championship-caliber talent.
    Disappointment: What the heck happened to Mballa. Thought he was a real Balla’! Huge drop in his production from last year.
    G-D. Lee-24.1
    G-Alexander-21.2
    F-K.J. Williams-23.7
    F-Nance-22.6
    C-Castleton-23.5
    6th-M. Williams-20.6
    FR-Holmgren-25.4
    Total AVG: 161.1
    Key subs: F-Mballa-19.3
    COMMENT: They haven’t had Lee, Williams, and, Williams for the entire season so even though their 161.1 is higher than a couple teams above them, I have placed them here. More than some other teams, they need multiple (at least 3) players to get hot, but, they now have an interesting lineup they can trot out that has a little bit of an outsider/darkhorse quality to it.
    SPECIAL NOTE: They drafted a freshman with their first pick. Since they also wound up adding 3 players late in the year, that would indicate that they needed at least 3 starters prior to the draft…kind of makes me go…hmm…

    We are now falling off the cliff, beginning the descent into the abyss…
    Average Is As Average Does…
    The Hoop Guru
    At least they tried: I will give the HG’s credit. At least they made moves early on and tried to improve the roster.
    Analytics: They need to revamp that department. They made some really questionable (dare I say bad) choices in adding players who were not remotely close to the real talent that was still in the FA pool. Some bad misses.
    Roster: There is almost zero upside on the roster for next year as well. Seems to me that they could have gotten better talent and mixed in some probable returnees with talent as well.
    Strengths: None. No horrible players in the starting lineup but no real studs.
    I like: Koloko. I hope he comes back for another year. Would give them an anchor position to build around.
    G-Kirkwood-22.5
    G-Young-22.4
    F-Ohams-23.0
    F-Maldonado-21.7
    C-Koloko-22.2
    6th-Horne-20.8
    FR-K. Brown-15.5
    Total AVG: 148.1
    Key subs: Nada de particular.
    COMMENT: Not likely to pull off a big playoff upset, although it’s possible since they have a lot of “Plain Janes” and no horrible players in their best lineup.
    SPECIAL NOTE: They drafted a freshman with their first pick. They only needed at least 5 starters prior to the draft…kind of makes me go…hmm…

    Who Should I Drop, Who Should I Add, Oh, What Should I Do?
    Saluki YRD’s
    Twins can work: Now that they are in conference play, taking McGhee is a good move, although both him and Davis have to shoot a lot and shoot well to get their fantasy numbers.
    Disappointment: I thought that Aluma would be a 22-23 fppg player this year. Boy was I wrong.
    Question: They made 3 moves the last day possible, and still have another two left. What were they doing all season while they were sucking?
    G-A. Davis-23.4
    G-McGhee-23.3
    F-Sanogo-22.5
    F-J. Brown-20.7
    C-Muszynski-19.7
    6th-Aluma-20.5
    FR-Roche-17.5
    Total AVG: 147.6
    Key subs: F-Ognacevic-18.0
    COMMENT: Also not a team that has much of a chance at an upset.
    SPECIAL NOTE: They didn’t have a pick until the 5th round. So, naturally , their first pick was a freshman-who is not even the best freshman on their roster as of now. They only needed at least 5 starters prior to the draft…kind of makes me go…hmm…

    Guards, We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Guards!…Wait, Do We?
    The Deadwood Gang
    Time for a change: Once proud franchise has really fallen off the cliff. Ownership needs to make a move at the GM position.
    Disappointment: That after 4 years Golden is still one of their best players. That tells you something about the roster.
    Disappointment #2: That there really is nothing to even get disappointed about. It’s a stinko roster.
    Question: The guards. Really?
    One good thing: They took Freeman. Hallelujah!
    G-Sherfield-20.3
    G-Cook-19.9
    F-Freeman-23.1
    F-Scott-19.4
    C-Coleman-20.6
    6th-Golden-18.4
    FR-Banchero-23.4
    Total AVG: 145.2
    Key subs: Just none. Slim never showed up.
    COMMENT: Unlike every one of the previous teams reviewed, the Gang doesn’t have a chance in hell of pulling an upset.
    SPECIAL NOTE: They drafted a freshman with their first pick. Since they have ZERO guard play, only one forward, average center play and inadequate numbers from the 6h man, that would indicate that they needed at least 5 starters prior to the draft…kind of makes me go…hmm…

    If This Team Is Schizo, We Need The “Good” Schizo To Show Up…
    Psychos
    Disappointment: Kensmil came in at about 23 fppg and is now just under 19. Still a good guy to bring off the bench as he is capable of getting 22, 23, but, he didn’t do what it was expected he would do.
    Disappointment #2: The GM waited too long to make moves and they left 4 moves on the board.
    Good news: They can build around Richard for next year.
    Bad news: They will need 5 starters going into next year’s draft.
    G-Agbaji-23.5
    G-Flagg-21.5
    F-R. Davis-21.1
    F-T. Williams-21.1
    C-Massalski-22.3
    6th-Plowden-20.3
    FR-Richard-19.1
    Total AVG: 148.9
    Key subs: F-Kensmil-18.9
    COMMENT: The Psychos don’t look like they have an “upset special” among their hole cards, because they have no hole cards.
    SPECIAL NOTE: They drafted a freshman with their first pick. They needed at least 4 starters prior to the draft…kind of makes me go…hmm…

    This And That (Trivia, Opinions, Little Known Facts)
    1. You may notice that the last 5 teams listed, or, the bottom 5 for you sticklers, all share something in common. All 5, all of whom needed multiple starters, all drafted a freshman with their first pick. One of whom has been riding the bench for a long while, another of whom is no longer with his team…kind of makes you go…hmm…doesn’t it? It should…

    2. I never have understood why it’s so hard to make a trade. But, I digress. I will tell you that I offered my top forward, Keegan Murray, you know, the guy who has been averaging over 30 fppg, all season. Not only were there no takers, there were NO COUNTER OFFERS. Wow! If there’s no interest in a consistent top 3 scorer, a guy who AVERAGES 30, I think everybody should check their pulse…just to make sure you still have one…

    3. Although, who knows, he may have another season of eligibility granted due to Covid, I find it fascinating that in a league where it’s so difficult to get good guards, that Peter Kiss, sr, g-Bryant, is still sitting in the FA pool. Hell, I wanted him myself…Kiss would be better than probably all but maybe 6-8 guards in the league and there were 16 teams in the MML the last I looked…do the math…

    4. It’s playoff time. What that means is that all of us will have one or more of our best players have the worst game of their season. We will also likely have one of our, shall we say, “under-performing” players have some of their best games, or, best game of the season. And, when I mean worst game, I am talking about how you have a guy that has been really consistent, whose worst games of the year were 15 or higher-and, not many under 20 fppg, and, he registers a single digit game. Bound to happen. Happens every single year. It’s the playoffs! To me, that’s the fun of the playoffs. I love to analyze all these numbers to try and make my roster better each year, but anything can and does happen. Gotta’ just roll with it. For me, that means a Jack Daniels and Pepsi, or, something really good and fattening to put in my mouth. There’s more tension. More disappointment. More exhilaration, etc., etc. Just more. Enjoy the 4 weeks!

    5. I like to have some fun in what I write, so, while I can get a little acerbic at times, and definitely sarcastic a lot of times, I don’t mean it with any meanness and I appreciate the fact that everybody is trying to win. My goal is to make the league so tough from top to bottom, that we see different teams doing well from year to year. For me, that makes it fun, as it makes it more challenging. Best of luck to everyone in the playoffs!

    1. I truly enjoy Grouchos commentary. So thanks for these. I was literally watching the Bryant highlights and wondering if Kiss was on anyone’s team. I get very hesitant to cut a decent player for one who seems better. I’ve been burned with that on more than 1 occasion.

      Selfishly I just didn’t want 2 Bryant guards.

      I didn’t see any Keegan Murray offers to me but maybe I was out of the loop for a bit with the Covid struggles in the NCAA. We got it here in my house and that led to a shitty Christmas but otherwise fine. I can tell you if people aren’t reading Groucho they should. I FINALLY learned not to take a Freshman round 1. It does add some stress in the early FA period but otherwise works out nicely. Even Devries who I took much later would’ve been a fine freshman start some weeks. Good luck everyone Now on to reading yesterday’s post.

      1. Didn’t see this until last night. Interesting about taking two guys from the same team who also play the same position. I have always had the same philosophy myself, until deciding this past season that it was time for me to take another look at that. That was what cost me the “great” Eral Penn last season (I already had his LIU teammate forward Tyrn Flowers), when the Virginia Gentlemen nabbed him. Incidentally, I did not add Penn through free agency this year to be a factor for me. Penn, while still posting a pretty good plus spread is struggling with his shooting, but, in case it came around I did not want to leave him out there for one of the stronger teams to add so I added him to keep him off a good team’s roster just in case he regained his shooting touch.

        I too, caught it, tested positive on 12-26, but, fortunately it was milder than any cold I’ve ever had due to being both vaccinated & boostered. Glad to hear you and yours came through just fine.

  15. Sweet 16 (1st round) Playoff Update (as of 7:25 PST, 1-30-22)
    #1 Deep Valley Grouchos vs. #16 Psychos
    DVG’s got a first game of 1 fantasy point from Dereon Seabron (25+fppg average), who only played 23 minutes and may or may not be injured. A score of 1 can be very difficult to overcome in the playoffs, but, fortunately for the DVG’s, the rest of the lineup stepped up. They also had something else of interest happen. Flowers totaled 26 fantasy points, also in just 23 minutes of play as he received 2 technical fouls and was ejected. That was looking like a possible 40 pointer…For the Psychos Agbaji registered just 8, Flagg just 11 and in a bit of bad luck for the them, frosh Will Richard registered 17 fantasy points but only played 14 minutes as Belmont was routing their opponent. This one is not over as it remains to be seen if Seabron can make his next game. If he plays, just about anything he puts up will of course, increase his scoring average and the DVG’s prevail. If he can’t play, the DVG’s have more players who figure to score less in their second game while the Psychos have more players who figure to score more, so, stay tuned. Advantage DVG’s but that means nothing right now.

    #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer vs. #9 The Deadwood Gang
    The Reindeer are giving the Gang a great opportunity for the upset. North Pole has received a 5 from Venters and a 6 from frosh Chandler. Justin Bean who is a strong spread guy, scored 19 points for just 19 fantasy points. Due to this, the DG’s can survive a -5 from Sherfield, who has 2 games to raise that up, and a 4 from Jaquez. BTW, I don’t understand how The Deadwood Gang can be seeded 9th, but…it still looks like NPFR.

    #4 Virginia Gentlemen vs. #13 The Hoop Guru
    If Maldonado can put up at least 20 in his first game, The Hoop Guru will actually have a chance to win this thing. That’s a chance. Not a lock. VG needs strong first games from Freeman-Liberty & Roddy, who should comebine for about 50. Also, THG will see more movement “down” in second games, besides which, can a #13 seed that has Gilyard in the lineup come out with a win? That was rhetorical. They can’t. VG should wind up pulling away.

    #5 Sam Jacobson Went To Class vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes
    This is looking like an upset. Of course, the Heroes are using unfair tactics. They are starting not one, not two, but, three players with the last name of Williams! That’s never been done in the history of fantasy college basketball! I think you can use ink instead of pencil in scheduling their next round game.

    #2 Gator Bait vs. #15 Saluki YRD’s
    Keve Aluma scored 1. Jason Roche scored -1. YRD’s are dead. GB will be advancing to the Elite 8.

    #7 Prozac Pups vs. #10 Hoosiers
    This looked like a real interesting game until Josh Oduro put in just 7 in his first game for the Hoosiers. Newly acquired Teddy Allen put up 43 for Prozac, who will be advancing to the Elite 8 vs. Gator Bait.

    #3 Maize and Blue Bloods vs. #14 Hillbilly Maulers
    Even with Kendric Davis just getting 6 and the frosh Traore just getting 8, the MBB will be moving on to the Elite 8. I say that although Hillbilly still has 3 players who have not yet played their first round game.

    #6 Vindaloos vs. #11 KC Warthogs
    This was the other interesting first round matchup and it’s also the most even one so far, with each team having just one player who has not yet played, they are only 3 points apart. The Vins’ got just 9 from Hayden Brown, who figures to raise that the second time around. Ditto for Wendell Moore for KC, who got just 12. Frosh Harrison Ingram registered just a 2, which is way below his average, so, that should be another nice boost. The Vindaloos still have the edge here, IMHO, but, it’s too close to call.

  16. Sweet 16 (1st round) Update (as of 7:51 PST, 2-1-22)
    #1 Deep Valley Grouchos vs. #16 Psychos
    Well, Covid has reared its head. For the DVG’s, Rayshawn Taylor was a DNP in his 2nd or middle game of his 3 scheduled games. Whether this is a positive or a negative is up in the air. Taylor had 31 in his first game. For the Psychos, Ochai Agbaji was a DNP in his 2nd and last game of the week. That locks in the 8 points Agbaji scored in his first game. On top of which, Plowden followed up his first game 32 with just 13 for a drop-off of 9.5. Flagg figures to score more but Kensmil figures to score less. With the score now 163.5-133.0 & Agbaji’s 8 locked in, it looks like the DVG’s are advancing to the winner’s round of the Elite 8.

    #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer vs. #9 The Deadwood Gang
    North Pole made a classic mistake that everybody has made (yes, even me-many times) and that was in not going with his best. That means that Tyler Burton, who has a good spread on the year and rebounds the ball was NOT in the lineup and Steele Venters, who does not have a good spread and does not rebound the ball was in the forward position in place of Burton. Venters is done, and finished with a 7.5 for his two games. Burton snagged 12 rebounds on his way to a 28 fantasy point performance. While Kennedy Chandler should be able to improve upon his 6 points in his 2nd game, it doesn’t figure to really move the needle that much. Bean, Dickinson, and, Tevin Brown are all capable of coming up with big games, but, it’s not looking wonderful for NPFR right now. Sherfield has two games to change his -5; and, that should be a nice boost. There’s a lot of “play” left in the DG’s lineup, and this one is now anybody’s to win or lose.

    #4 Virginia Gentlemen vs. #13 The Hoop Guru
    Remember what I stated in the first look at this matchup? “If Maldonado can put up at least 20 in his first game, The Hoop Guru will actually have a chance to win this thing.” Well, Maldonado went for 31. HG is up 162.5 to 136.5 over the VG. However, Freeman-Liberty has yet to check in and that should make this matchup very, very close. VG now needs LaRavia to take a big bump up from his first game score of 8, and, for Dillon Jones to have another strong game in his 3rd game of the week. “The Cockburn” could also bump his 21 up. Frosh Jabari Smith figures to drop a little from his first game 31. Young & Ohams should be able to bump up for HG, however, they should see a drop from Horne, Koloko, and, Maldonado. How much is the question. Edge to the Virginia Gentlemen, but, it’s surprisingly tight.

    #5 Sam Jacobson Went To Class vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes
    The Sam’s are in trouble. The “Williams strategem” is working for HH. For the Sam’s, Alondes Williams should improve on his first game 11 but Haase laid another egg and is now locked in for the week at 8.0-a huge, huge problem for Sammy since you would normally expect to get 18-22 from Haase. Only A. Williams figures to bump up, so, this will go to the Heroes, proving that 3 Williams in the lineup always beats the team with just 1 Williams in the lineup.

    #2 Gator Bait vs. #15 Saluki YRD’s
    It gets worse. YRD’s had first round games of 8, 1, and, -1 from J. Brown, Aluma, and, Roche. GB can rest his starters.

    #7 Prozac Pups vs. #10 Hoosiers
    PP is up 135.0-119.0 and has two players and has one player who has not yet checked in. They also got a 0 from Ron Harper. Teddy Allen will probably not get another 43 and Jake Stephens will probably not put up 38 again; so, both of them will drop somewhat, while Harper will go up. The Hoosiers are waiting for Aimaq to play, so, let’s say he gets around 25 or so. That puts them up and only a few points behind when Prozac’s frosh, Daron Holmes gets his first game score-which, by the way, he only has one game. Oduro, who scored just 7 but has one more game remaining, and, the freshman Mohammed, who had 15 but has two games remaining are actually the keys to this matchup, which is a toss-up right now. Slight, slight lean to the Pups, but, all in all, a toss-up.
    LATE NOTE: Harper came back with a 21 in his 2nd game to raise his average from 0 to 10.5, giving Prozac a total of 145.

    #3 Maize and Blue Bloods vs. #14 Hillbilly Maulers
    Sears scored 15 in his first game and Shumate put in 33 to get Hillbilly up to 129.0 and they still have the frosh Duren waiting to play. Kalkbrenner went from a first game of 20 to a second game of just 10 but has a 3rd game remaining for Maize and Blue Bloods. HM is not out of it yet. Duren has just one game and has to hit 18, 18+. If that happens, they are capable of getting big games from Braun & Eason, and Devoe could bump up his disappointing first game 14. But MBB has a 26.5 & a 28.0 locked in already and while it could get close, all signs strongly favor MBB.

    #6 Vindaloos vs. #11 KC Warthogs
    The Vin’s are looking good since KC’s Wendell Moore (Duke) decided that this would be his worst fantasy week since…ever. Moore is locked in with a 9.0 for the week. That pretty much kills KC. Rollins has yet to play and could go big, and, frosh Harrison Ingram has two games to lift up his 2.0 from his first game. But the Vin’s actually have more “growth potential” with their players who still have 2nd games. Vindaloos should be moving on.

  17. Sweet 16 (1st round) 2nd Update (as of 8:51 pm, PST, 2-2-22)
    #1 Deep Valley Grouchos vs. #16 Psychos
    This is over. Seabron bounced back from his 1 with 28 and Johnny Davis put in 27 despite going 5-19 from the field. It’s 179.5 to 128.5 and their is no path the Psychos can take to get on top. DVG’s move to play the winner of North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer vs. The Deadwood Gang, which is looking like NPFR.

    #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer vs. #9 The Deadwood Gang
    NPFR was up 126.5 to 101.0 over TDG prior to Wednesday’s games. Jalen Cook went for just 4 after 21 the first time around for an 8.5 drop, making TDW drop to 92.5. This is now a PROBABLE for NPFR as they have a 34 point edge despite the fact that they have two players locked in with 7.5 & 12.0. NPFR vs. DVG’s.

    #4 Virginia Gentlemen vs. #13 The Hoop Guru
    VG is up 152.0 to 151.0 over the THG. The VG are missing a player at the guard position in the lineup. I don’t know if that’s just a typo, or, if Freeman-Liberty, who was the guard, has Covid and there will be a replacement. In any event, that is an open slot still to receive it’s first score for VG and that’s huge, of course. In the meantime, VG got a nice bounce back (from a first game of 8) from LaRavia, who went for 32-bumping his average for the week up from 8 to 20. “The Cockburn” however, went absolutely frickin’ off and went for 43 vs. Wisconsin, to bump his average up from 21.0 to 32.0! Statistically, THG still has a shot as Jahmir Young could go off and raise up from his current 12.0, but Koloko will be hard-pressed to get anything close to his first game 36 and ditto for Maldonado and his 31-and, remember that VG still has not had one player register his average. So, The Hoop Guru made them sweat, but it’s all over but the shouting. Prediction: Virginia Gentlemen will advance to the winner’s round of the Elite 8.

    #5 Sam Jacobson Went To Class vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes
    HH 158.5 – Sam Jacobson Went To Class 110.5. Finito! HH will move on to play Gator Bait in the winner’s round of the Elite 8. By seed, the first big upset, but, with a revamped roster, I would call it a small upset.

    #2 Gator Bait vs. #15 Saluki YRD’s
    With frosh disappointment Max Christie having to start at one of the guard positions, this one was over before it began. GB will move on to play the Hardwood Heroes in the winner’s round of the Elite 8.

    #7 Prozac Pups vs. #10 Hoosiers
    PP is up 174.5-122.5. Oduro bumped his average up 10.5 and still the Hoosiers trail by more than 50 as frosh DaRon Holmes played his one and only game of the week and locked in a 29 for the Prozac Pups, meaning this one is history. The Pups move on to the winner’s bracket of the Elite 8.

    #3 Maize and Blue Bloods vs. #14 Hillbilly Maulers
    Maize and Blue Bloods-151.5 to 149.0 for the Hillbilly Maulers. HM has just two games left, both in the MAC. MBB has 4 games left, but one is Kendric Davis who will surely improve on his first game total of 6-so, that’s a bump up. Frosh Traore should also get a bump up from his first game total of 8. With the score so close, anything can happen, but, again, there is more upward mobility possible for MBB and I am going to call this one-yes, prematurely, for MBB.

    #6 Vindaloos vs. #11 KC Warthogs
    KC Warthogs 146.5-Vindaloos 140.5…Bad luck for the Vindaloos! Hayden Brown, who had an unusally poor game with just 9 in his first contest, did not play (DNP) vs. Furman and his 9.0 is now locked in. Vin’s still have 4 games left but little wiggle room as far as significantly bumping up their score while KC should see McKnight’s first round 35 take a tumble down but could see frosh Ingram move up slightly. Rollins must get 23 or better. If McKnight can have another really good game to mitigate the drop-off, KC has a chance, but the odds slightly favor the Vindaloos. But, I have to call this a TOSS-UP at the moment.

  18. Late Update…For the Vin’s, Tshiebwe dropped two points and Colby Jones put up a horrendous 10 after a not so very good 14 to drop another 2 points, a net loss of 4 making the score: KC 146.5-Vindaloos 136.5. Vin’s are choking and the Warthogs can taste victory (wine of course, a nice pinot noir).

  21. Elite 8 Preview (as of 8:51 pm, PST, 2-2-22)
    #1 Deep Valley Grouchos vs. #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
    Naturally, I am going to favor moi! But, seriously, NPFR has some players to worry about. Plus, while not always true, teams that had a good season and have a low scoring week generally follow that up with a much, much better week. Also, my sources tell me that Steele Venters will NOT be in their starting lineup and that we can expect to see Tyler Burton…Hmm…Alex Morales figures to improve on his 19.0 first week. Dickinson & Bean figure to be quite productive again. It doesn’t sound like enough, but, if Burton has a good week and frosh Kennedy Chandler picks up…and…well, you get the idea. NPFR needs some players to hit their averages, some to go big, and, some to go a little better than expected AND have the DVG’s get some more strikeouts such as Seabron getting just 1 point in his first game last week. For the DVG’s, their lineup will remain the same except that Cain will be sitting out to be replaced by Keegan Murray-which, average-wise, is an improvement-or, is it? Oakland has 3 games and all 3 are on the road and I don’t like those odds as far as Cain performing well are concerend, although again, it’s the playoffs and anything and everything does seem to happen in one way or another at least once. I don’t expect to see the DVG’s average 185.5 again, but, they shouldn’t have to.
    EDGE: DVG’s. Greatest edge in firepower (jinx alert!!) among the four Elite 8 winner’s bracket games goes to the DVG’s vs. NPFR, but, as duly noted by yours truly, several of the DVG’s have ridden the statistical see-saw this year. Should that happen (and it would need to), then, if NPFR can hit somewhere north of 160.0 they would have an opportunity at the upset.

    #4 Virginia Gentlemen vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes
    VG took awhile to get “warmed up,” but finished up at 174.2…not too shabby as the saying goes. Bouyea stepped in (Covid sub) at one guard spot and did what he needs to do for this team, don’t have any stinkers. In this case, having a reserve come in and average 20.5 is just fine. VG’s loaded lineup took care of the rest with LaRavia coming back strong in his 2nd game to avenge his first game stinker. They also have Freeman-Liberty (was the starting guard, pre-Covid) and Painter who they can put in the starting lineup. For HH, their first round game was a mixed bag, although mostly good. Posh Alexander played over his head, but, he can play close to what he did, IMHO, pretty much all the time. Darius Lee, a late acquisition I liked, also played over his head, but, again, is capable of being somewhat close to that. Nance was substantially under, and, in Big Ten conference play, that has to be a concern. Everybody else was more or less in their range with Duke’s Mark Williams (who has been scoring more of late) having perhaps his best fantasy week, and, super frosh Holmgren, also perhaps having his best fantasy week. VG needs to be sharp (heavy hitters need to hit dingers to support one or even two disappointing performances) vs. surging Heroes.
    EDGE: VG. Just too much firepower for the Heroes, although HH is capable of getting some “sneaky points,” as I like to call them. However, HH had a great week and still averaged “just” (actually, an excellent number, normally) 160.0. They figure to go down some and VG having a “down” week should be 160, 160+.

    #2 Gator Bait vs. #7 Prozac Pups
    GB “cruised” to their first round average of 177.5 in crushing the YRD’s. However, Prozac racked up a 167.0 average themselves. The difference however, is that the Pups received a couple of performances not likely to be duplicated, such as Samuel averaging 25.5. Frosh Holmes only had one game and locked in a 29.0-also, not likely. Ron Harper and his 10.5 will probably not be in the lineup and Julian Champagnie and his 23.7 (season average including active & inactive games) should be unless he’s injured and if he is, I missed that. Jake Stephens CAN continue to go big and Teddy Allen can go either way. So, there’s enough balance between the highs and lows for me to say that Prozac should still score north of 150.0. Can that be enough? On paper, no. GB also had a “mixed bag,” as far as performances go, but, their ceiling is higher. Pride is good but doesn’t figure to average anything close to 36.5. Abmas can average another 29.5 but figures to dip a little. Orlando Robinson should be able to bump quite a bit from his so-so week. Mushila finally looks “comfortable,” so I expect him to continue to average around 25.0 fppg. That leaves Austin, the freshman I love and he can certainly not only continue to put up 18.5, but, he should better that. So, the “dips” are navigable for GB, or, shall I say “manageable,” while there are all sorts of probable “highs” for a team as talented as they are.
    EDGE: GB. While GB could average less, I think PP will need to be around 165.0 AGAIN, and, I think that’s going to be difficult for them.

    #3 Maize and Blue Bloods vs. #6 Vindaloos
    MBB survived a horrible, horrible game (he lost a “make-up game” to Covid) from Kendric Davis to win, and, also, despite that low of lows, still managed to put up 160.0! That speaks volumes about how strong (yet underrated by many I feel) they are. While I like Kalkbrenner, I do see him as a possible “vulnerability,” and, while Traore has been pretty damn good since being added, having not one, but TWO single digit games in the same week scares me; makes me worry that he has hit the “freshman wall,” where certain frosh get tired legs at this time of the year. The Vindaloos have to be “on,” to win, but are certainly capable of it. I don’t think they need a monster score of 165.0+ or anything, but, their first round 142.0 likely won’t cut it. 155.0-160.0 should put them right there. Tshiebwe is simply the surest thing there is. He recently had a “bad game” of 25! So, you never have to “pencil in” what he will score. He’s a 30. Payton Sparks is a pretty damn good freshman, and, pretty reliable. Mosley is solid. So is Slawson. Despite an ugly game of 9, Hayden Brown is a 20+ performer. Their “vulnerability” is Colby Jones. I like Jones, but, again, I always worry about guys who just don’t get enough shots. If he doesn’t have a good rebounding game, or, misses some ft’s, or, makes a few more to’s than usual, and, gets 5 jacks, that’s a problem.
    EDGE: Slight lean to MBB. The difference should lie with the heavy hitters. You say, tell me something I don’t already know! Well, for the “wisenheimers” out there, that is not always the case. But in this case, I count 4 sluggers for MBB, and, just 1 for the Vindaloos, although the Vin’s have a lot of guys who can get 22-25. So, it’s the big play capability of the MBB’s vs. the consistency that the Vindaloos will need. True to the seedings, this match appears to be the most interesting because on paper it should be the closest.

  22. Elite 8 Winner’s Bracket…Where upsets reign!
    #1 Deep Valley Grouchos (98.0) vs. #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer (189.0)
    Game, set, match, after the first day to North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer! Statistically, of course, there is still a chance, but, forget that. The DVG’s have two players who have not yet played their first game. Even if those two players were able to put up 50 between them, that would still leave them 41 below NPFR-which is still waiting for Tyler Burton to arrive at the party! NPFR should be well over 200. Morales, Bean, and Edwards all went way over their max. Even if they drop, it won’t matter. Dickinson was slightly over his max. Frosh Chandler was over his max and Tevin Brown did his average. In other words, the “perfect storm” that I said had to happen, of NPFR getting some HUGE games and the DVG’s getting some poor games (Davis-7, Flowers-10) happened and NPFR will be advancing to the Final Four to play the winner of the game between the Virginia Gentlemen & Hardwood Heroes.

    #4 Virginia Gentlemen (139.0) vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes (181.0)
    Similar to the DVG-Reindeer prediction, the Heroes needed some help from the VG’s and they got it in the first round of games. Dillon Jones’ 11 rebounds were wasted by his getting just 6 fga’s, 0-2 fta’s and 3 to’s as he totaled 13. “The Cockburn” was held to 19, and, frosh Jabari Smith charted a measly 10. Roddy has yet to play, so, the VG’s are in much better shape than the DVG’s, but they do have an uphill climb. As for HH, Darius Lee continues to be unreal. Lee was a 21 to an occasional 25 during the regular season as he didn’t get a ton of fga’s. He was efficient with what he got and rebounded well. Now, he’s getting fga’s and he’s making the most of it. He got 17 fga’s on his way to a 42 point fantasy game. Super frosh Holmgren went for 45 fantasy points. Again, they both figure to drop, but, not enough to hurt HH. I think that VG will have to have a strong game from Roddy, and strong bounceback games from Jones & Smith since LaRavia doesn’t figure to get anywhere close to his first round 39. They need to get north of 160, probably 165.0+ to have a chance to advance. HH again started the three Williams’ and will need all three to remain stable, relative to their first round totals to pull it off. HH Has the edge but this should be an interesting contest if Roddy gets his 25, 25+…and, it all hinges on him doing that.

    #2 Gator Bait (113.0) vs. #7 Prozac Pups (109.0)
    Despite the meager 4 point margin, GB enjoys a slight edge here. GB has 3 players who have not yet played their first game while Prozac has just 2. However, the GB’s Max Abmas decided to be “December” Max Abmas and totaled just 15 in his only scheduled game of the week. Ouch! On the other hand, Charley Pride is playing with pride and remains on a tear and checked in with 37. Frosh Austin had 38. Of course, they figure to drop in their 2nd games. Liddell should do what he does, leaving the final outcome likely to be determined by Orlando Robinson and, most importantly, Mushila, because Mushila, who has been great, has just one game and has to nail it. The Pups will get just one game from Jake Stephens and he has to (very likely to do so) nail his one game. The keys for PP will be if freshman Holmes can significantly bump up his 9 fantasy points he scored the first time around, and, if Samuel-who has been producing over his head of late, can come in with something close to his first game 27. To summarize, GB looks good for 165, 165+. Prozac looks more like 160, trying to squeeze out 165, 165+. So, this is another good match with a chance for the lower rated seed to advance, but, I see PP as having the tougher climb.

    #3 Maize and Blue Bloods (106.0) vs. #6 Vindaloos (108.0)
    With just one player having not played his first game of the week, the Maize and Blue Bloods check in with an anemic 106.0. Meanwhile, the Vindaloos have 3 players yet to play and still lead by 2. Similar to the DVG-NPFR game, this is all over but the shouting. Of all people, Kendric Davis AGAIN, had a real suckwad game, totaling just 7 fantasy points. Taylor Funk totaled just 10 and the frosh Traore, who, apparently has hit the “freshman wall,” struggled to get 12. They could bump up around 17 points from better 2nd game performances from those 3 players, plus, get maybe 25 from McKinnis, but all that and more just means that MBB is looking at totaling around 150 or so for the week. The Vins’ are likely to get at least 56 from the three players who have not yet played, putting them around 165. Hayden Brown will drop but Slawson figures to do better, as does Tshiebwe, who had a ridiculously low (for him) first game of just 22 fantasy points! In other words, it will take just short of a miracle for MBB, and, it definitely looks like the Vindaloos will be moving on. They are the best “spread team” (Slawson scored 19 fantasy points despite shooting just 3-14 from the field/Tshiebwe got 22 but was 4-13) and it’s what’s going to make them formidable in every round.

  23. Oh DVG, you got absolutely hosed by the 1 and done format. Losing Ray’Sean Taylor won’t matter but man it didn’t help. Thanks for all the updates. good luck in the Big 64

  24. Elite 8 Update as of 2-8-22 (5:08 PSZT)
    #1 Deep Valley Grouchos 145.5 vs. #8 North Pole Fightin’ 204.0 Reindeer
    Still over, more than over with frosh Taylor not getting any games due to a season-ending ACL injury. DVG’s can only move up about 23 fantasy points.

    #4 Virginia Gentlemen 139.0 vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes 181.5
    VG still waiting for Roddy. HH could drop about 20 points, into the low 160 range, so, this isn’t as bad as it looks although Jones, “The Cockburn,” and, Smith, all have to upgrade.

    #2 Gator Bait 162.0 vs. #7 Prozac Pups 124.0
    Each team is still waiting for a high scoring option to play their one and only game, so, the margin is real. Prozac has a decent mathematical chance but will need help from some under-achieving players (cough, cough…Orlando…cough, cough…Robinson) to advance. GB looking real good for the semi’s.

    #3 Maize and Blue Bloods 131.0 vs. #6 Vindaloos 128.0
    Vindaloos are “short” one game as they wait for frosh Payton Sparks to log in, meaning, they are actually winning. The Vindaloos do have some bad news however, in that Slawson is done for the week at just 19.0. Mosley (“…picked a bad week to stop smoking.” “I came to Casablanca for the water.”) scored just 5 in his first game and might be “bad” Mosley this week. Colby Jones did manage to get 6 fga’s in his first game on his way to 18 fantasy points in the world famous fantasy soap opera: “How The Colby Turns.” The Vins will have to sweat through 2 more of his games to see how that winds up. They should get a nice boost from Tshiebwe to help balance a downward diff from Hayden Brown. All in all, MBB is in better shape, odds-wise to advance. 60-40 in their favor, in the most interesting matchup this round.

  25. Be odd to play MBB back to back weeks if we both win this week. Playing MBB in the Big 64 right now.

    Thanks for the update Groucho. I guess we’ll truly get some independent analysis of the final 2 weeks.

  26. Final 4 (as of 8:51 pm, PST, 2-2-22)
    Well, for awhile, in this crazy Covid era, it looked as if all the top seeded teams were going to be out of the running. But, some form of normalacy prevailed as Gator Bait and the Maize and Blue Bloods both advanced. Although the final four teams fighting for the title aren’t what I would’ve envisioned, I do recall saying in the pre-season review that there were more teams capable of winning it this year and that has panned out. With more players coming back via the extra year, which also meant more returning, teams that had some sort of nucleus didn’t need to add a lot and when they did, warm bodies were still out there.

    #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes
    On the “underdog card” we have NPFR and HH. That’s a tough choice. NPFR has 3 players averaging over 25 fppg and after that, 3 averaging over 21 fppg, so, they are a little “top heavy.” HH has 2 players averaging over 25, 2 over 23, and 2 averaging 21. So, statistically, HH actually has an “easier path,” but it was those “heavy hitters” that just came through big and propelled NPFR to their Elite 8 upset over the DVG’s. Trends? Well, for NPFR, Justin Bean is being Justin Bean. I haven’t looked at his schedule, but, he’s certainly capable of turning out a 30 point per week effort. Dickinson just had the week of his life vs. just about the best competition he could face, so, I would say he can certainly get 25-30 fppg also. Their 3rd 25+ producer, Alex Morales, just had a super week, and, may be ready to replicate that type of production. Frosh Kennedy Chandler also had the best fantasy week of his life last week. He is unlikely to duplicate that, but, should also be a plus compared to his season average. Center Jesse Edwards is out for the season with his injury and that presents a question mark about the lineup for NPFR. Fausett, Martinez, or, Venters? I think it’s between the usual steadiness of Fausett, or, the possibility (just had a great game) that the Martinez they thought they were getting is back. For HH, frosh Holmgren has upped his game and I think it’s sustainable. Darius Lee IS the question mark, but, seems to be embracing taking more fga’s than usual, and, he still rebounds, so I think that Lee’s roll is also for real. K.J. Williams remains the “mystery meat” of the lineup. A good player who is a career fantasy “underachiever,” K.J. had his best week of the season last week. I do NOT think that is sustainable, although how he does not get 22-23 fantasy points just falling out of bed continues to confound me. He may be the determinant in how HH does in this matchup. They haven’t been using Castleton, which is baffling to me. Will they continue to go “3 Williams,” in an unprecedented, all-out Williams front? This is a very even match up. If there’s an edge it’s that NPFR has been the better spread team this season and that means it can handle the lows better, but, remember, too many lows in the lineup at one time, and that positive spread factor becomes meaningless.
    Post-note: I have now seen the lineups for this week. NPFR is starting Fausett, opting for that “steadiness,” and Bean gets just one game and has to get 25+ or it could be over for NPFR. HH is starting Bradley. Bradley just had the best week of his life and I’m afraid that HH is being “sucked in” by that factor. Bradley in the starting lineup is almost always the “kiss of death.” Darius Lee also has just one game and like Bean, must get 25+ or it’s likely all over for HH. HH is also going away from what’s been working as they are going with 2 Williams and not 3. With all of these factors, there is now a lot more that has to go right for HH and the odds have shifted sharply in favor of NPFR.

    #2 Gator Bait vs. #3 Maize and Blue Bloods
    Not to be demeaning, since, anything can and has happened historically, but, this semi is really the final as these two teams, if playing to form, are far superior to the two teams in the other bracket, and, both are Crum Division rivals, so, this will be their 4th time playing each other this season. GB is getting consistently high play from Liddell (26+ fppg) and the frosh Austin (just under 22 fppg). They are also seeing Charley Pride killing it of late (25 fppg), a trend that should continue. They are getting a wilder “kind of ride” from Orlando Robinson, who is still a 25+ fppg scorer, and, even more so from Abmas (just under 223 fppg). They don’t really have a bench to speak of, as those bench guys, while they have, or, had strong credentials have either underachieved and/or been wildly erratic, but, he does have a choice to make, lineup-wise. A difficult one, but, it’s good to have choices. Gage Prim, a 2020-2021 stud, is showing signs of life. Prim, or, Mushila is the choice, as far as I’m concerned. Mathon is steady if usually not spectacular and a nice “steady” is good to have in the playoffs. 3 over 25, 1 at 24, 1 over 23, 1 at just under 23. Freshman just under 22. A lot of firepower. MBB has some weapons as well. At 30+, Omier has shown no signs of slippage. Scheierman has been steady at just under 25. Kessler has been on a spectacular tear and is now also just under 25. He figures to have at least one huge game. McKinnis, at 24+ is having his best season. Kendric Davis has gone through his “tough patch,” and is still just under 23. And, the freshman Traore, bounced back with a strong week and may have found his “sea legs,” for the stretch run. But, they are one player short of having a complete lineup and need both huge games and steadiness from the above named players and then need to have whoever the final starter is to get around 20. I favor Gator Bait in what should be a tightly contested match because they have more wiggle room since they can put out a good 7 players vs. MBB having 6 and a question mark.
    Post-note: GB is staying the course with Mushila. MBB’s lineup is not yet posted.

  27. Final 4 (as of 11:05 am, PST, 2-13-22)
    #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes
    Well, I said that with the “Bradley factor” in play (Bradley has sucked as a fantasy option his entire life except for last week), and, with Darius Lee only having one game and that he had to kill it, that the advantage before tip-off had shifted strongly to NPFR. Boy, was I wrong! For NPFR, Morales had one of his worst games with a 14, Dickinson, after coming off of a 3 game superweek turned in a 10, and, frosh Kennedy Chandler, also coming off of his best or one of his top two weeks of the year, only managed to put up a 4. The boringly steady Tevin Brown turned in a 5!Naturally, this all occurred AFTER all three had out-performed their seasonal averages vs. yours truly…grumble…grumble…but, that’s what makes this single elimination format so wonderful. Any dog can have it’s day. After a seasonal max lineup score, NPFR is now looking at perhaps a seasonal low. They are waiting for Justin Bean’s game and Morales, Dickinson, Chandler, and, Brown all figure to raise their scores the 2nd time around. However, despite both teams not torching the fantasy nets, even if Bean goes and locks in a 30 they will still be 30 fantasy points behind. I think that NPFR can statistically pull it out, but they will need some really serious help from Bradley-who had 18 but usually doesn’t even put that much up and can really reach low on occasion when it comes to sucking. K.J. Williams had 34 and is capable of being in that area again but figures to drop. If he has a 14, that would be a drop of 10 points. But, all in all, HH’s lineup shouldn’t see huge drop offs from the other players.
    Advantage: Edge to Hardwood Heroes

    #2 Gator Bait vs. #3 Maize and Blue Bloods
    Well, well, well, Walker Kessler got a triple-double the hard way (points-rebounds-blocks) and gave the MBB an extra 10 bonus points as he went for a first round 46! That and perhaps a season-best 32 from Marquette’s Justin Lewis offset a below norm 19 from Scheierman, another God-awful 9 from the usually sound and great Kendric Davis, and, a shocking 14 from Omier. MBB is still waiting on two players to register their first scores of the round. For GB? Well, I praised Charley Pride, so, of course, he goes and gets just 16. But wait, he got 16 while going 3-21 from the field! That shows you how good he has gotten as a fantasy option as he had 15 rebounds and 6 assists. Unfortuantely, that, combined with an 11 from the peripatetic Max Abmas, put them in the hole. Frosh Zach Austin also had an 11 but has two games to do something about that. GB’s chance of advancing now hinges almost entirely on how Orlando Robinson does, since he only has one game. If he gets 25 or more, he’ still in it with a chance to win it. But, he is a decided underdog because Davis & Omier figure to come back strong and raise that hurdle that GB has to climb over.
    Advantage: Edge to Maize and Blue Bloods

  28. Final Fourski (as of 7:59 pm, PST, 2-16-22)
    #8 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer (119.5) vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes (156.0)
    Well…let’s see who’s doing well…Fausett? Check. Locked in with a 25.0 for the week. Bean? Check. Put up 26 in his one game. Chandler? Check. 16.5 is near his season average. So, at 36.5 points behind, what has to happen? Morales has to go from a 14 to a 20, which means getting 26 his next time out. That’s doable. Tevin Brown needs to go from a 5 to a 20, which means he would need 35. Possible, but, not likely. More likely is he gets maybe 25, which puts him up to 15. That’s a 20 point gain right there from two good players who can do that. Burton needs to maintain something close to his 23 and that leaves Dickinson who needs to get 25 to bump his 10 point game up 7.5 The additional 27.5 would put them at 147. Does that do anything? K.J. Williams would need to take a hard tumble down from his first game 34. And, Nsoseme already only put up 16 his first time around, so, any movement there figures to up. Strong advantage: Hardwood Heroes

    #2 Gator Bait (106.0) vs. #3 Maize and Blue Bloods (120.0)
    This is now an almost impossible hill to climb for GB, which, unfortunately has thus far turned in its most anemic week of the year. They are waiting on Orlando Robinson, who has just one game. Maybe he scores 30 and that puts them up by 16, and both Pride and Abmas could easily both score in the mid-20’s+ to give them another 10+ points. However, MBB is waiting on two players to play their first games of the week and will get a “bounce back” game from Kendric Davis and Norchad Omier. Scheierman figures to bump up while Kessler & Lewis should drop. All of this means that MBB has a little more upside to move the needle up and that having one more player not having yet played to GB, gives them an advantage. GB needs some really big performances from their studs.
    Advantage: Edge to Maize and Blue Bloods

  29. UPDATE @8:09 PST: Kendric Davis DID NOT PLAY his game (Covid positive?) and his 9 point game is now LOCKED IN! This changes everything even though MBB still has an extra game left. Mathon just put in a career high and totaled 34 fantasy points, giving him & GB a 7 point bump UP! For MBB, Lewis went for 20 but that means a 6 point drop for him &MBB. This thing is turning around!

  30. So, it looked like something was happening and then Orlando Robinson DIDN’T HAPPEN for Gator Bait, posting a MINUS 1! GB still has 4 players who should all be able to bump up their averages and they are only 24 points behind Maize and Blue Bloods, but, the should see Omier and Scheierman bump up and still have points to get from the freshman, Traore. Not promising for GB…

  31. It’s over. Abmas went for 10 while Omier & Scheierman both upped their averages. Final is Maize and Blue Bloods-the team I originally thought had the best lineup in the MML vs. the surprising and rising Hardwood Heroes. Should be an interesting final…

  33. Championship Game
    #3 Maize and Blue Bloods (26-10) vs. #12 Hardwood Heroes (15-21)
    Well, here we are. This is an interesting matchup because the Hardwood Heroes were able to totall transform their starting lineup, exceptionally late in the season. Adding 3 starters who are impacting the lineup as late as after January 27 has, to my mind, never happened before. They also picked up a part-time starter as well. So, this team is not just a lousy team that got hot suddenly. It’s like a brand new team. They capitalized in addition to getting lucky in that the Arkansas coach realized what he had wasn’t working and decided to expand Jaylin Williams’ role. K.J. Williams, a talented, career-long underachiever is killing it. It appears that somebody got in his ear and explained that athletically talented 6’9 guys who don’t rebound and seem to maybe play hard every other game will have no NBA future. Darius Lee was sometimes good, sometimes so-so, occasionally bad. Then, his light went on and he became a stud. And, Mark Williams, the part-time starter for HH has been pretty damn consistent. So, there’s all that, and…they’re HOT! The higher-seeded Maize and Blue Bloods have weathered quite a storm this season as major players in the past, reliable STUDS, became unreliable and/or just plain sucked and they had to re-tool their lineup from what I thought in the pre-season was the best lineup in the MML, through a ho-hum period where Kinsey, in particular, was killing them, through some interesting acquisitions of their own, in addition to having had a freshman position problem just about all season until they were finally able to do something about that. Sort of like a boxing match between two battered journeymen that have somehow managed to get to a title bout. You have to disregard the records. This is anybody’s match. HH is once again going to roll the dice and start Matt Bradley, bucking the odds that he won’t suck enough to 86 the whole shebang. Kendrick Davis is coming off two weeks where he actually had two single digit games, something that can’t happen again if MBB is to win. They are going to roll with Kalkbrenner, a bit of a risk, but their achilles heel could be the frosh spot where they are sticking with Traore. I think Traore is on a downslide and I myself would opt for Malachi Smith from Dayton for this round where I don’t want to “go for it” with the higher scoring freshman who has been dragging his butt the last couple of weeks. I just want some steadiness.
    Early update: Looking at that frosh position, Holmgren put up 23 for HH while Traore garnered just 5 for MBB. Already, that one disparity at just one position is going to be difficult to overcome for MBB. Add to that the fact that Kessler tallied just 11 in an actual head to head vs. HH’s Castleton who went for 28 and HH is rolling early! Oh ho, HH’s Bradley at his suckwad best with just 8, is trying to keep MBB in it! Mballa, a player who should be a big-time fantasy “balla,” put in 29-which is huge for HH because you never know what you are going to get with Mballa. Darius Lee locked in an 8 last week but has bounced back with a 29! Finally, some good news for MBB as Scheierman checked in with 39! Not to be outdone, Omier, who was off last week, also gets a 39 and MMB is in a pickle but still alive! Hardwood has the edge!

  34. GB, I feel for you. While a minus anything is rare to see at the Final Four level, seeing it from a guy you are thinking is going to go out and get 23-26 is terribly discouraging, and, in this case, deadly, since he only had the one game.

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