Stats Don’t Lie
We (the Deep Valley Grouchos, AKA DVG’s) have been pretty successful in the history of the MML. We’ve won the most titles. But, since I started giving out what I think are some of the secrets to fantasy college basketball success, Gator Bait (IMHO) has supplanted us as the top franchise, or, to me, the one I have to worry about the most. But I willingly gave up my “secrets” to make the league more competitive than it was already, which, to me, made it more fun and made me keep sharpening my skills of observation. So, while I may or may not have talked about some of these things before, here are some things to think about, statistically, when putting a team together.
Rebounds & FGA’s are the Most Important Stats
There is no doubt in my mind, and, to verify that, how many of you have looked at the career team statistics for our league? The DVG’s have totaled 16,257 rebounds. No other team has even reached 15,000. Who’s the closest to the DVG’s? Gator Bait with 14,488. That’s a STAGGERING differential of 1,769 rebounds. And, let me add that Gator Bait has 2 titles. Offensive rebounding is also very important. How does that shake out? The DVG’s have the most at 4,771 with Gator Bait next at 4,282. Basically, it’s the teams that rebound the ball the best that finish with the best record. Ditto in regards to the offensive rebounding stats. FGA’s you say? Aren’t makes more important than misses? Ah…no. Because high volume beats out percentage when it comes to shots producing fantasy points. Again, take the DVG’s, who have 25,747 FGA’s. That’s nearly 1000 more FGA’s than the next closest team, the Vindaloos. The DVG’s FG Pct., however is just 48.1%, which places them just 9th in league history. But, taking more shots means you can afford to not be that accurate and still get production as shown by the fact that despite being 9th in FG Pct., the DVG’s are first in FGM with 12,380, which is way more than the next closest team. Now, don’t get me wrong, I wish my guys were hitting a higher percentage, but, the main thing is GETTING SHOTS. What about the three, since there are so many more being shot now? Well, the DVG’s are sitting right in the middle of the pack with the 8th most three-point FGA’s, and, have the 2nd WORST three-point FG Pct., but it hasn’t hurt us…yet. That IS a stat that I am going to start looking at more going forward.
On The Negative Side
I hate turnovers. Really do. And, with good reason. Guess whose number one in terms of having made the most turnovers in MML history? Yes, the DVG’s! With 5,186 to’s, we are far and away the biggest TO machine since McDonald’s! Only one other team has more than 5,000, the Vindaloos. Only two other teams have as many as 4900, Gator Bait & Virginia Gentlemen. So, TO’s are not a huge problem. And, since these are winning teams, we are mentioning here, it just shows that you really do have to break some eggs to enjoy that omelet. So, while I am constantly upset when a player makes a lot of turnovers (2 being okay, 2.5 and up is NOT OKAY!), and, it may cost a game here and a game there, over the long run it does not impact a team’s success.
What About The Other Stats?
Well, the DVG’s are first in most career assists and steals, and, second in blocks. And, that’s all good and do contribute to a winning team, but I don’t scout for that, per say. I do like “stat-stuffers.” My definition of a stat-stuffer depends on the position. For a guard, that means at least 5 rebounds a game and 4 assists per game. If he scores a lot, it can be 3 assists per game but he must still get at least 5 rebounds per game. For a forward-and, in general I am talking about a forward who is putting up 15, 15+ real points, I want at least 8 rebounds, with 9 being better, and, 3 assists per game. The benefit of having stat-stuffers, is that when they are either off in scoring whether due to lack of FGA’s, or, missing shots, their other stats “float” them enough to give you a decent fantasy total from them. The players who basically just score, when they are off your lineup really takes a hit. The DVG’s are just 14th in career free throw shooting percentage. What about that stat? Well, again, it pisses me off, since we are taking the best players, I don’t understand why my guys can’t collectively shoot in the 73 percentiles, but, again, due to high volume in regards to free throws attempted and free throws made, it has not hurt us over the long run to have the 3rd worst FT Pct., in the league at 71.1%. Only one team has attempted more FT’s than us and of course, it’s Gator Bait. And, only one team has made more FT’s than us, guess who? YES, Gator Bait. So high volume shooting in both FG’s and FT’s is a major stat to look at when putting a team together along with rebounding.
Hoop Guru, please don’t worry about starting the draft process prematurely.
Any time you want to get the party started, just put your hands up in the air like you just don’t care and pick!
Yowza!
YES! Way to go! The Hoop Guru has finally got this thing started. Hillbilly is now at the plate!
Always interesting DVG. I really do love sorting guards by rebounds. A guard who boards is one of my favorites. Sure I’ll make an exception for a Max Abmas but I generally don’t like 1 category guys. Thanks for all the compliments by the way. You and sadly teams like Mayemura and Deadwood really made me step up my game after getting beaten up my 1st few years.
DVG, I always enjoy your posts, whether I agree or not. I have a question I’d like to ask. We try to simulate the college as best we can in our scoring system. You have expressed your thoughts on turnovers, but our scoring system ignores one source of turnovers, fouls. Correct me if I’m wrong, but a foul results in a loss of possession or at least accumulates to the point where a team is awarded foul shots at some point in the game. My point is, fouls have consequences in the game and we don”t account for them. Is there a correlation between number of fould committed and overall team success? I know an argument against is intentional fouls at the end of the game, but even then teams opt out of fouling and play on. Anyway, you get my point. Your thoughts?
Thanks Hoop Daddy!
Interesting…I hadn’t thought about it that much until I read your post. There is probably a way to do the fouls, but, I would think it would have to relate to bonus only because it is a non-shooting foul that gets a player free throws. A player in the act of shooting is already shooting so I don’t think you can really do much of anything to keep it real there except leave the status quo in place.
But, remember that the offensive player does get ft’s for a non-shooting foul if it’s bonus…so, off the top of my head I would say that if the player shooting a 1 and 1 misses the first, meaning he does not get a 2nd free throw, that maybe he could be penalized a point because his miss didn’t give his team a chance at another free throw/point…
…I would have to think more about it, but on the face of it, while you make a good point, to me, statistically it’s getting into murky water.
As far as the fouling, only a player control foul and/or illegal pick, illegal screen, etc., etc., results in a loss of possession. I could see us taking away a half a point for each of those-a whole point seems a bit stiff; but, that would be a stat-keeping nightmare for the commish! I don’t like the idea of penalizing players a point maybe for every foul over their third, or, for fouling out. They are already usually being penalized with reduced minutes because of their foul trouble and also playing with more restraint.
I don’t have any documentation, but, I would guess that to a point, the teams that commit more fouls are usually on the losing end because that means one team is playing more aggressively on offense, whether it’s going inside and/or driving the ball more, forcing the action and putting a lot of pressure on the defense.
Of course, I have always believed that fouls could be a terrific “leveler” that can neutralize to an extent, a team with a superior athletic advantage. But, no coach has every really employed what I call the “foul strategy.” The foul strategy, in my mind means that as a coach I would automatically play everybody that suits up for a game, including the walk-ons. The walk-ons may only play 1-2 minutes but they are valuable because each has 5 fouls to give. Counting the 13 scholarship players plus say, 3 walk-ons, that is 80 fouls available.
I wouldn’t be fouling on every possession, but it the other team has a tremendous athletic advantage, I may have our center play behind their center to both keep him from the offensive glass and encourage the other team to pass it to him if he’s a poor free throw shooter. We will get to bonus and foul him every single time he is trying to catch it for a 1 and 1. That would be to our advantage. We would do the same in regards to alternately denying and fouling before bonus on their best perimeter player and leaving their weakest perimeter player open so he can receive the ball. In those circumstances I would also probably foul on almost every single defensive possession if we were in a two possession game, ahead or behind, in the last 5 minutes of both halves.
But, no coach has yet come along with the balls to do that. I am talking about HC’s at the low DI and the weaker mid majors. It would not be a crowd pleaser. But, again, while I don’t have documentation to support it, I think that an inferior team could probably win 3-4 games employing that strategy that they would otherwise lose.
Just my two cents…