2022-2023 MML Post-Draft Analysis – PART I

I will try and limit my comments about freshmen, since my views on the early drafting of freshmen is well known. I am going to look at how each team’s roster appeared, pre-draft and look at the changes, positive or negative, by conference, by division, alphabetically within the division.

Big “O” Robertson Conference

Driesell Division

Hoosiers

Pre-draft strength: Hoosiers had a high-quality group of forwards & centers in Aimaq, Jackson-Davis, Asadullah, Oduro.

Pre-draft weakness: Are the Hoosiers the “anti-guard?” They had none that could play a lick.

How would they draft? Well, of course, having enough frontline guys to compete for a championship if they only had a couple of guards, they of course, selected a freshman with their first pick. A potentially, very good one, but, in terms of value relative to their roster, not a good pick at the time. They then selected Julian Strawther, g. This was a highly speculative, or “spec” pick. There were “proven” guards, statistically, still on the board. Strawther may be a pro, and, he certainly has upside, but expecting him to get big fantasy numbers on this year’s Gonzaga team does not seem likely at this point. After that, they had to select another freshman, and, got one that probably won’t do dick, fantasy pointwise; oh, I meant they took Gradey Dick. In the 6th round they took Gerrale Gates. Gates has been a fantasy myth during his years in college. Averaging 16.2+8 rpg, still only produced 19.2 fppg. Gates is the Moby Dick (there is that name again) of fantasy basketball. Only, in this case, instead of trying to find Moby Dick (Gates), they are hoping that Gates can somehow turn his real stats into worthwhile fantasy stats. Double down? How about triple down in the 8th round with another freshman? Yeah, baby…Hoosiers are not going for an MML championship, they are after worldwide domination of the freshman class!

Problem? They only have two guards who AREN’T freshmen on the roster, and neither is certain to be an impact player.

G-Strawther

G-Bates

F-Jackson-Davis

F-Oduro

C-Aimaq

6th-Asadullah

Fr-Hood-Schifino

Analysis: It is obvious that Hoosier management is not going to go in and get therapy for its “guard-avoidance” issue, which, is a serious one. Luckily, for them, even post-draft, there are some interesting guards with the potential to be so much more than they have shown. If they can man up and admit they have a problem (the first step in getting mentally healthier, just like in AA), then they can make a few moves and turn into a true contender. They truly have a formidable foursome to fill the forward, center, and 6th man spots. I say that even though Aimaq’s numbers will take a dip but should still be very good-and I think Oduro will counter some of that by raising his average. The current lineup makes them a promising team.

North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer

Pre-draft strength: Two strong centers and a forward who should become a “stud” fantasy-wise, this year

Pre-draft weakness: No guards. However, I do not think they should join with the Hoosiers and make it group therapy, as I do not think they share the same aversion to guards. They just did not have any. Guards can be hard to find sometimes…I know, from personal experience.

How would they draft? Interestingly, is the word that comes to mind. The best guard on the board was gone, and they took Kountz. Unless Kountz can get another 5 FGAs per game, he has no fantasy upside. He is a negative spread fantasy player (averaged 21.2 but that translated to a 20.4 fppg average). So, while they did try to address the glaring need on their team, they knowingly took a guard who is going to get them a little over 20 fantasy points per game-not good enough for a starting guard on a roster that intends to contend for the title. He would be a good 3rd guard. They did the same thing with their next pick, “Jelly” Walker, whose 20.3 worked out to a 19.2 fppg average. But Walker did better in conference play. I prefer Walker to Kountz, so, they had a slight rebound here. If you look at Francis Okoro, you see he has a spread of +8.3, which sounds great, but there is a point where a super high spread indicates a problem, and, for Okoro it is usage. He is a good rebounder but only averaged 10.8, meaning his team is not looking to him on the offensive end, so, I do not believe he has any upside. The pick I liked is guard Isaiah Wilkins. 6.0 spread, and I think he is certain to increase his scoring average, meaning that while he may have only averaged 18.7 fppg last year, he could easily bring that up to 21, 21+fppg.  

Problem? Even if all the aforementioned guards ball out, they do not have enough lineup punch, as they are also short a forward. They are a good team but not a great one with a championship future unless they get an impact guard, via free agency or trade.

G-Walker

G-Wilkins

F-Burton

F-Fausett/Okoro/Venters

C-Dickinson

6th-Edwards

Fr-Wallace

Analysis: It is extremely difficult to make a trade in this league, which is unfortunate as trading is always so much fun and I was in baseball & football leagues where a lot of trades were made. But there are 8 moves allowed. And, of course, they should go that route first. However, if they cannot find an impact forward and an impact guard, Edwards would be a nice piece to offer to a center-starved team.

Vindaloos

Pre-draft strength: Probably, the pre-draft trio of Tshiebwe, Ike & Slawson. A stronger trio than Peter, Paul & Mary (no disrespect to Peter), or, the Manny Trillo, or even the Three Stooges. They also have a dang good roster.

Pre-draft weakness: None, really. Yes, they will have some “falling returns” from guys who changed schools such as Mosley and Brown, but it really will not hurt them that much.

How would they draft? They only had one and that was not until the last round, so, they selected a freshman…WHICH I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH!    

Problem? None. But adding a for-sure impact guard would not hurt.

G-Mosley

G-Jones

F-Ike

F-Slauson

C-Tshiebwe

6th-Sparks

Fr-Hunter

Analysis: This is an outstanding team. They have impact players, they have quality depth, they have some guys with interesting upside such as Sparks, Townsend, and Martin. If they can add that impact guard…

Virginia Gentlemen

Pre-draft strength: Dillon Jones.

Pre-draft weakness: Their roster. They only had 3 returning players. They needed to draft an entire starting lineup.

How would they draft? Pretty good. If I gave out a grade, it would be a strong “B,”, possibly with a +. Minor was one of just 5 free agents I had listed as “elite,” prior to the draft and he is a f/c. They got a promising guard in Miller. Rienk Mast (22+fppg in conference play) was a steal in the 7th and he is also a f/c. Jacobs & Davis are interesting picks.     

Problem? They still need at least two impact players (22+fppg). I think they are out there, but, in “hiding,” as I believe there are more “sleeper” candidates than usual, capable of becoming impact players. They just must consistently track the prospects.

G-Greene

G-M. Miller

F-Minor

F-Jones

C-Mast

6th-Davis/Jacobs in that order

Fr-Starling/Bona

Analysis: No, I did not forget Tykei Greene, whose fantasy average of 23.8 in conference play (conference play is what really counts) should make him an elite draft pick, no? No. He did that at Binghamton and Kansas State has loaded up. I am sure they brought him in to be a starter/impact player, but, fantasy-wise, I do not expect him to be that guy. So, while I put him in as a starter, they lack a guard. They have a lot of interesting ones on the roster with good spreads, but all are good backup guards. They need an impact guard. They are a better than average team going nowhere as of now. One impact guard probably puts them in the top 8 of the league. Another impact player would put them in the top 4.

Crum Division

Gator Bait

Pre-draft strength: Their roster. Quality & quantity.

Pre-draft weakness: None

How would they draft? Superbly, but not perfectly. Nitpicking a little here, let me explain. Every pick they made was good, hell, usually, better than good. I am only referring to their first pick of Evbuomwan, and only because in conference play his fppg average went down from 23.5 to 22.0 because that is what usually happens in Ivy League play, in particular. But, like I said, that is nitpicking because how many teams were able to draft a guy who averaged 22.0 fppg in this draft? Not many. He just would not have been my first pick if I were Gator Bait, but he is still an excellent pick, and, if Princeton decides that he should shoot it a little bit more, there is definitely room for him to take a few more jacks each game, so, he has upside. So, to sum up, it was the placement of his selection as the first pick and not the player that I am talking about. Having said all that, he is going to be a strong player for them. Question? How does Josh Bannan and his 22.25 fppg average in con stay on the board until the 7th round? If Gator Bait wins it all I blame all of you for letting Bannan stay on the board AND myself-which I will get to in my evaluation of my own team. Bannan, a first round FA talent was a major steal! Wanna’ talk about steals? How about nabbing Omoruyi in the 8th! And then, the steal of steals (shame on everybody-me included) as he was able to get a probable elite producer in the 11th round when he grabbed Kris Murray. To quote GB: “Well, I thought, what the heck, I gave everybody else 10+ rounds, if nobody wants a guy who gets shots, scores, gets treys, rebounds, assists, and, even gets steals & a few blocks while making few to’s, I guess I have no choice. They forced me to do it!” Good grief Charlie Brown! I do not think that Kam Jones will amount to much and I think that there were better frosh prospects fantasy-wise than Hendricks on the board, but by this time it did not matter. He killed the draft!

Problem? Deciding who to start each week.

G-Pride

G-Abmas

F-Evbuomwan

F-Murray

C-Timme

6th-Austin/Bannan/Mushila

Fr-Hendricks

Analysis: We are all having to swim against the tide this year because Gator Bait is the tide. I can see them running the table from start to finish. They are that deep. They can withstand an injury to any position, even more than one position if it comes to that. I did not even mention Devries & Armstrong who are both capable of going big this year. They are not top-heavy with studs (25 fppg) but so loaded in players of quality at each position, that it will take some tremendous free agent pulls even for another loaded team such as the Vindaloos to beat them. And do not forget, as he has shown in the past, if Hendricks is not the answer at the frosh spot, he will find one who is.

Hillbilly Maulers

Pre-draft strength: They have a real stud in Bacote.

Pre-draft weakness: A lack of quality starters, in particular at the guard positions.

How would they draft? In this case I would like to be wrong, but they did not have a first-round pick and spent their first pick in the 2nd round on Grant Basile, who was excellent at Wright State-where he was one of the two “men.” But he is now at Virginia Tech, and, while I do not mean to imply that he has become a turkey, there is no denying that he will not approach the numbers he had as a Gobbler. Known as Hokies to most of you. In the 4th round they made, IMHO, a worse pick, venturing down the same path as they took another transfer in Ethan Wright, who put up big numbers at Princeton but may not even start at Colorado, and certainly will not score as much nor rebound as much. His fantasy game is toast. Just a “never should’ve been picked” pick. If Khalif Battle can return to form from his injury, then they may have themselves a guard. Keshawn Justice has upside to raise his fppg average. I am not a Boum fan. And, of course, since nobody (including myself in this category) knows much about the freshmen until they have actually played a game, he may have taken the most promising NBA prospect of the Arkansas trio in Nick Smith, but also the worst fantasy prospect of the three…oh boy…

G-Battle

G-Brown

F-Shumate

F-Justice

C-Bacot

6th-Boum

Fr-N. Smith

Analysis: On paper, there are good names here. But in the “real world” of fantasy basketball, this is an average/OK lineup that is really hoping that Battle, Brown, Justice, and, Boum (not to mention the freshman-who, by the way, in 3 games-scrimmage & exhibitions has had a negative spread, which included scoring 22 real points in the scrimmage and winding up with just 9 fantasy points) can all do at least 2, 2+ fppg higher than the previous year. 2 points does not sound like much, but that depends on each player’s upside. Brown & Justice may have the best shot at achieving that. Also, besides Bacot, Shumate is a “mini-stud” who is a really strong fantasy player to have. It is not a bad lineup at all, but there’s just not enough firepower to really do something. Maybe Camara can step up big, who knows?

Maize and Blue Bloods

Pre-draft strength: Kalkbrenner. Remember, Its strength, not “possible” strength.

Pre-draft weakness: Maybe none, maybe a lot. This team was hit hard by “transfer-up-itis.”

How would they draft? Strangely to me. Well, not so strange if you can get into their head, and, I think I can. They rate their returning players much higher than I do. If they are right, they are at a Final Four level with the returning roster. That is the gamble, and, obviously, they did not see it that way. So, they had 5 draft choices. The first four were all freshmen. I mean, c’mon, if you are going to try to win the lottery, better to take 4 stabs at it than one, right? The last pick was Plitzuweit, who, I wanted to take with my first pick a year ago, but he got hurt. His team, South Dakota, played an exhibition the other day. Plitzuweit did not suit up. My point? They could have gotten him after the draft. He may be a steal. Or he may not, but why not take someone who is ready to help now? I think it is because he has over-valued his returning players.

G-Scheierman

G-Davis

F-Omier

F-F. Traore

C-Kalkbrenner

6th-Kinsey

Fr-Y. Traore (no relation)/Howard

Analysis: This is a very good-looking lineup. In the exhibition, Scheierman rebounded like a madman. And, he will have to. He did not get as many shots as he was getting at his previous school. I think he will be good, make no mistake about it, but his 24.9 figures to go down, especially in con play. Davis is Davis and while this Memphis team will be sharing the ball a lot more than in the past, he should be close to his 21.3 fppg. Miami-FL will be playing a lot of “small ball” and that will mean that Omier will have to continue to rebound like a beast-which, is what he does. I think he will do just fine with the move “up,” but, that 30.6 fppg average is coming down. Could he still do 25? That is certainly possible. You will notice that McKinnis and his 23.3 fppg average is nowhere to be found. That is because he is at Ole’ Miss and nowhere to be found. Played something like 17 minutes off the bench in their exhibition game. Keep him for now in case of emergency, but he is a lineup scratch. Notice the theme? They are all dipping. How much of a dip is the question. You cannot dip too much of a good guacamole or onion/bacon but scoring averages can certainly dip too much. Now, Kinsey, should he improve his shooting, he could go up. But that is it. That is why this lineup of great fantasy names is now more fluff than substance. Still good. You still have to beat them. But they are not who they present themselves as. I do not think they had a “stand pat” roster. Only time will tell.

Psychos

Pre-draft strength: None, bupkes, zero, zilch, nada…

Pre-draft weakness: Their roster. They returned four and they all suck.

How would they draft? If you are a fan and liked the Indiana Jones movie where Sean Connery is his father, you might say that “he chose wisely,” I would add, in spots. He took a winding road. First off, I cannot help it. When you need to add a complete lineup of 6 players, why, why in the hell would you take two freshmen with your first two picks? There is absolutely NO VALUE in doing that. Now, if a loaded team such as the Vindaloos, or Gator Bait did it-I could see it. Those teams have PLAYERS! So, after that, they went with Jack Nunge, who showed that when healthy he is a heckuva player. GOOD PICK! Next, they reached for Doherty. There was way better on the board. They then took their starting center in Sharp, another good pick. They then needed guards. Guards should always be the first parts of the lineup you go for over forwards as there are always fewer. And, as such, they were SEDUCED by two guard with great spreads (at least we know that the Psychos do the math), in Sturtz & Gaines. Neither of whom is a bad pick, let me make that clear. But there were better on the board, and, when I say seduced, while I love the positive spreads, I do not know how much fantasy upside either of these guys have-and that is based more on the teams and style of play than on the two players themselves. Cohen was a “meh” pick, but then they dug deep and STOLE Joe Bryant, whose 18.8 fppg average is deceiving. In conference play, the mini “Jelly Bean” averaged 23+fppg! So, a mixed bag. I will add that both of the freshmen they selected should have major roles for their team and both are likely one and done…so, the Psychos will be drafting at least in the top 5 next year and will have that year to re-think their draft strategy, besides hopefully, improving the roster as far as returnees for the 2023-2024 season goes.

G-Bryant

G-Gaines/Sturtz

F-Nunge

F-Doherty

C-Sharp

6th-Sturtz/Gaines

Fr-Miller and/or Jackson

Analysis: Very average lineup. As noted in the analysis of Gator Bait, Kris Murray did not go until the 11th round. Nunge & Murray would have been a huge difference for the lineup you see. As would have others that I will not go into. Maybe they can pull a “Hardwood Heroes,” and make some FA adds that propel them to greatness, but the odds are very long on that happening. The current roster is one and done (a lot of seniors and the two one & done freshman) and he needs to make his 8 moves, all 8 of them with next year in mind, building a base of mainly current sophs or rising juniors who look like they will stick around for another year of college. If they had just, say, 3-4 good returning players prior to next season’s draft that would change their fortunes markedly for the better.