I will try and limit my comments about freshmen, since my views on the early drafting of freshmen is well known. I am going to look at how each team’s roster appeared, pre-draft and look at the changes, positive or negative, by conference, by division, alphabetically within the division.
McGuire Conference
Olson Division
Deep Valley Grouchos
Pre-draft strength: A questionable one, in that they return Johni Broome, but he is not likely to again average 26.9 fppg after transferring to Auburn. But he should be a more than serviceable starter.
Pre-draft weakness: Lack of impact players returning, as they returned just five players. So, let’s just say the roster itself was a weakness.
How’d they draft? They drafted remarkably well, helped by the continued “frosh addiction” that left the best FA’s on the board. In fact, despite drafting 11th, the DVG’s were able to obtain one of the two top FAs statistically. However, the DVG’s made a major blunder with major repercussions down the road. Getting the top FA guard and the top FA forward in Estrada (26.1 in con) and the top FA forward in Pember (24.8 in con) with back-to-back picks is something that hasn’t been done before in MML draft history, so, that’s two impact starters added right off the bat, as they stuck to the best player available (BPA) draft strategy. They diverged from that strategy just slightly when they saw that Carry was still on the board. Guards are everything in fantasy basketball and they desperately needed another quality one. Carry was possibly overlooked due to his fppg average of just over 20, however, he averaged 22.2 in con. At this point in the draft there are very few, if any “sure things,” so, it became “spec” time, betting on upside. G/F Galette, G/F Blanton, and, surprisingly, F/C Amari Williams were all there for the taking. The “two for ones” of course, are like adding two players for one (position-wise) and really help build depth. Galette may have reached his peak and Blanton could be a “never was,” but Williams looks like a breakout fantasy player. Next, they took Jyare Davis, a great spec player, but therein lies the big blunder which was that they also wanted Murray but became fixated on Davis. I’m certain that the DVG’s could’ve gotten Davis with their next pick and/or even post-draft but they went the other way and grabbed him. Cementing their doom, as Gator Bait took Murray in the 11th round. Murray has better odds to be a stud than Davis does and leaving him to be snatched up by GB, basically handed the championship to him. This was a major tactical blunder by the DVG’s who up to that point were having an A+ draft. The Murray debacle drops it down to a B+/A-. Lastly, they took a freshman. Not because they needed one but because philosophically, they feel it’s better to take a freshman late, and, if he fails, you will be able to find a good freshman post-draft and only have to use one of the eight allotted moves instead of two-if you were to take a freshman right after the draft and he doesn’t work out and then have to use another move (hence, the two moves), a wasted move in effect, to solve the problem. Better to waste the last draft pick and still have all 8 moves left.
G-Estrada
G-Carry
F-Pember
F-Williams
C-Broome
6th-Holden/Blanton/Davis/Galette
Fr-AJ Brown
Analysis: Since it’s me talking about my team, I can say this: We’ve never had a better draft, although there will certainly be a disappointment or two among the draftees, there always is. I say that because I’ve never had to draft practically an entire lineup before, and, on paper, I got quality. However, the mind-boggling (what a dumb move!) move of not taking Murray still bothers me and most definitely will haunt us all season long as it further strengthened the strongest roster in the MML. What can I say to everybody? My bad! Doh…
Hardwood Heroes
Pre-draft strength: Easy. Colin Castleton.
Pre-draft weakness: They only returned 5. They had a decent guard in Alexander, and a good question mark in KJ Williams, as in: Will his 24.2 fppg average transfer well from Murray State to LSU?
How’d they draft? Well, of course, when you need at least 4 impact players you not only select a freshman first, but, one who won’t be playing for a while due to an injury. Hmm…Draft strategy got much better in the 2nd round when they took B.J. Mack. I had him as a strong candidate to have a breakthrough year. Their 3rd round pick brings up a question? Will Lively out-perform and out-“minute” Filipowski or the other way around? For those who are counting that makes 2 frosh from Duke, and, in case you forgot, Lively was selected as the ACC pre-season pick for freshman of the year. Duke has to play the freshmen but taking Filipowski in the 3rd seems like a huge gamble to me. I feel much better about Andre Kelly in the 4th. But again, they haven’t taken a guard yet, have they? It was time for another freshman in the 5th. Jacob Germany was the “meh” pick in the 7th-and, there was better on the board. Although it was in the 8th round, Tyger Campbell-the first guard they have selected when they badly needed an impact guard, is certainly in the top five of the worst picks in this draft. Campbell had a phenomenal season for UCLA last season. Assists, shoots the trey, more assists than to’s, double figure scoring average…all of that resulted in a fppg of 14.8 with no upside. I mean, is Campbell going to be put able to put up another 10 shots per game, half of which are three’s and hit half of those 10 in addition to somehow becoming the best rebounding point guard in the country? No. Campbell will be one of the first cuts. Wong was the last pick, a good-looking guard who has never put-up good-looking fantasy numbers.
Problem? Guards are everything. Not forwards and centers and you can only have so many f/c’s in the lineup at one time. They are lacking one and the other is not an impact player.
G-Alexander
G-
F-Mack
F-Williams
C-Castleton
6th-Kelly
Fr-Phillips
Analysis: They had their pick of Estrada, Carry, or, Massner, etc., etc. As much as I see this and say this year after year after year, it was astounding to not only see them take a freshman with the first pick but one who is on the IR to start the season when there were so many quality frosh available.
KC Warthogs
Pre-draft strength: A difficult thing to assess. I think Zach Edey is going to kill, but, beyond that, well…
Pre-draft weakness: IMHO, similar to the Maize and Blue Bloods, I think that KC is overrating his returnees and believes they will all do the same and/or better when it does not appear so on the surface.
How’d they draft? Looking at the above the answer is obvious, isn’t it? Take freshman “maybes” with the first two picks. Now, eventually, I’m going to be wrong about this, but you have an IDGAD (I don’t give a damn) HC at UCLA and if you have seen their games, you know that each player is basically on his own out there offensively. So, despite his talent, Amari Bailey would not be the choice as the first freshman I would take in the draft. They then doubled down with Duke frosh Mark Mitchell, who better average at least 5 steals and 10 boards a game to get any fantasy points because he doesn’t figure to get a lot of jacks up. G/F Traore from Long Beach State averaged 22 fppg in con, but, is that who he is, or, has he reached his ceiling? No trouble with the pick at all, I just find it interesting. Omari Moore is intriguing, I’ll grant you that, but, still a heckuva reach since he is really a watch and see if he can gain a staggering minimum of 5 fantasy points just to average 21 fppg this coming season-which has seldom ever happened before. Naturally, they selected their best freshman, last. Anthony Black is a stat-stuffer type of player and possibly the best (him & Walsh), fantasy-wise of the three Arkansas frosh.
Problem? The same as before. The guard room is suspect. Not bereft of talent, but, highly suspect.
G-Holden
G-McKnight
F-Quinn
F-Jones
C-Edey
6th-Traore
Fr-Black
Analysis: A fascinating collection of maybes, possibly’s, could be’s, and, what if’s. Holden should actually impact at Ohio State. But, after not being a three-point shooter for all of his career, can he suddenly shoot it well enough to impact his own fantasy numbers? His very good “real” stats at Wright State still only translated into a 22.9 fppg. How will that transfer to the Big Ten? McKnight has more upside than Holden, whom he out-assists by a 2 to 1 ratio, and, is in range of, rebounding-wise. He needs to shoot it more consistently and cut down on to’s-which is more doable. He could bump up. Quinn is a nice player but will find out quickly that Richmond’s league isn’t like the Patriot League, so, he’s going down. I loved Jones as the rising stud of the DePaul team, not so much at St. John’s even though he has a point guard who will distribute. I see a push or a downward path. Jalen Moore is Jalen Moore. Ingram under another HC could really blossom. I think he will improve his numbers; Stanford needs him to do so and he needs to do so since he’s planning on coming out after this season, but, under that HC…KC is a good looking middle of the pack and/or slightly worse team at this point.
Saluki YRD’s
Pre-draft strength: Guards. Unlike most of the league, they had a quality backcourt returning-which means drafting around that and sticking to the best player available (BPA) strategy shoulda been a can of corn, right?
Pre-draft weakness: Not much of one. Having to draft just two impact FA’s put them in a good position.
How’d they draft? Strangely. Or not, if you get my drift. They selected a freshman first. A probable one and done from Oregon, of all places. Oregon has consistently shown that while they start a big, they don’t use them much on offense. They have played small ball. This year they are talking about playing two bigs. The kid that came in last year that they didn’t know what to do with and Ware, the big kid coming in this year that they will not know what to do with. Isn’t that just ducky?! That was huge because they didn’t draft again until the 4th round. Remember, they only needed two impact FA’s and the best of the FA’s don’t stick around for long. So, they took another freshman in the 4th round. So now, it’s apparent they don’t really care about trying to win it all, they are just fans of the highest-hyped freshmen, collectors, if you will. Next, they added a big-name transfer in Pack, but, while he can certainly play at the same level, he was asked to carry K-State and he won’t be asked to do the same at Miami-so, how much help will he be? Even as the man in Manhattan, KS, he could only muster 19.8 fppg. Antonio Reeves is going to take and make a lot of threes and may lead Kentucky in scoring but he has always been a negative spread guy and won’t be the man in the Commonwealth. Finally, in the 7th they took a player with great upside in Emoni Bates. Their last pick was Diarra, who should make a jump, but he’s jumping from 14.2. How high can he fly?
Problem? They were sitting in a very good position; pre-draft and they totally blew the draft. Just wasted the opportunity for me to be writing about them as a Final Four type of team.
G-McGhee
G-Davis
F-J. Brown
F-Bates
C-Sanogo
6th-Pack
Fr-J. Walker
Analysis: Brown & Sanogo are nice pieces who both have upside to bump up this year. They have a really nice backcourt. Did they not see this? How could they not just take the BPA on the board the first two times around and then keep taking the BPA and wait until later for a freshman? I don’t know. Someone deep in management is sabotaging the team; that’s the only answer I can think of. YRD’s need to do a thorough investigation and get to the bottom of this.
Tark Division
House of Sparky
Pre-draft strength: Enrique Freeman and not much else. They didn’t get a great “inheritance” from The Deadwood Gang, whom, I suppose lost everything when they were waylaid in a shoot-out somewhere in one of those crazy “F.A.T.” states (Florida, Arizona, Texas) where anybody can get shot any day of the week for any reason.
Pre-draft weakness: Being a rookie and having to draft at least 4 impact players.
How’d they draft? Com si, com sa. They took a really good freshman in Keyonte George with their first pick. Guard Trenton Massner was their next pick. He has the numbers. His supporting cast graduated and I wonder if he is good enough to repeat those numbers without their help-but, all in all, certainly a good pick. I don’t see Marcus Sasser as a good fantasy pick, so, no, I don’t think Sasser will help him. I did like their 13th round pick, F/C P.J. Hall.
Problem? They got a lot of research to do and they need to do it quick and get at least two of the best remaining FA’s before they are snapped up by a savvy veteran GM.
G-Massner
G-Sasser
F-Freeman
F-Withers
C-Coleman
6th-Sherfield/Hall
Fr-George
Analysis: They do have a returning “sleeper” in Withers. Looking at Louisville’s first scrimmage, it appears that Withers is going to play a much larger role than he did previously. That’s not cemented in stone, but, it’s promising and that’s why I have him in as the other starting forward. Can Coleman even approach his old numbers at his new school (LSU)? That’s a lot to ask for, but I still like him. Maybe Sherfield gets up to 20 fppg. There’s just no oomph in this lineup.
The Hoop Guru
Pre-draft strength: G/F Maldonado really arrived last year.
Pre-draft weakness: No horrible weakness.
How’d they draft? You know how this story goes…they needed a lot of impact guys, so, they took a guy they think can impact…a freshman. Ta-da! In the 2nd round they took a name. The question is which Mark Sears did they get? The one who averaged 23 fppg in the MAC, the one who could be in range of that during the first half of the season for Alabama, or, the one who will be struggling to get a rhythm when Jahvon Quinerly returns from his injury. I’m serious. Quinerly is a real obstacle for success for Sears, in addition to the fact that he is now in the SEC and will be asked to share the ball more. So, while I don’t hate or even dislike the pick, I don’t think it was the place to pull the trigger, especially, after going with a freshman in the first round…no matter how good, because there are more able-bodied freshmen than impact FAs out there. Ledlum’s okay in the 3rd. I like Spear in the 6th. Good player, has some upside, and, a good place to get a player like him. Seneca Knight has talent, but I don’t know about taking him before seeing how it goes at Illinois State in their first two games. I love Dawson Garcia in the 8th. Amazed he lasted that long. He has shown production already at the high DI level and left UNC because he wants to be the man. He will be one of the two “men” at Minnesota. Dylan Penn? Meh…Eral Penn, now if one has to choose between Penns, and, I’m not talking about Bic vs. Lindy, Eral Penn is the way to go. DePaul needs a player and I think he has enough juice, despite moving up from LIU-but it still remains to be seen. However, as an 11th round pick, he’s actually a value pick.
G-Maldonado
G-Young/Sears
F-Ledlum
F-Garcia
C-Carlson
6th-Spear
Fr-Lively
Analysis: Again, not a terrible lineup, but, no real juice. Young may be able to approximate his numbers at Maryland-and, that would be a big plus. Sears will dip. The answer is how much. I also think there’s a decent chance that Carlson’s numbers will go up. This lineup could get hot at the right time and win a playoff game-but they need more to go deep.
Prozac Pups
Pre-draft strength: Frontline guys. Stephens, Samuel, Joseph, and, Holmes.
Pre-draft weakness: The guards.
How’d they draft? When you have just one pick in the first five round, you prioritize it and make it the BPA, right? Wrong. You take a freshman so you can watch 90% of the impact FA’s come off the board. In the 6th they took a nice player with a nice spread in Vescovi, the Tennessee guard. Not much fantasy upside however. You don’t draft a guard (you don’t even consider it) who averaged 15.8 ppg-which translated into 15.9 fppg-that means he’s dead to you. Dead guys don’t do well in fantasy basketball. That is/was Blacksher. Max Jones in the 12th? Who knows?
G-Vescovi
G-
F-Holmes
F-Joseph
C-Stephens
6th-Samuel
Fr-Walsh/Mitchell in that order
Analysis: They’re not garbage, but one of the worst three drafts (conservatively) doesn’t help. They need Holmes to raise up big (he can), Joseph score a little more, Stephens not drop too much, etc., etc. So, they do have some potential juice, but they need to have all of that happen and get an impact guard who is better than Vescovi. Vescovi’s 19.8 is sub-par for a starting guard in the MML>
Sam Jacobson Went To Class
Pre-draft strength: Well, they have Mostafa & Robertson, both of whom show potential to raise their fantasy averages from last year. Is that a strength?
Pre-draft weakness: The returnees.
How’d they draft? Looking at the draft I have to say that Sam over-values his returnees and also has a frosh addiction. I may start a clinic to deal with that…lots of potential clients…Freshman Reneau is going to be a stud-if he stays in school long enough-but, with Jackson-Davis still there, he will get minutes but how much opportunity to put up numbers this year? He followed that up with something much, much, worse. Sammy took Jaiden Delaire with his next pick. A former starter at Stanford who doesn’t rebound the ball. He is now at USD with a host of other transfers under Steve Lavin. Oh boy! I think, without exaggerating that Delaire is the worst 2nd round pick in recent memory. Now, that is ground-breaking, twerking worthy even. Frosh Mike Sharavjamts is receiving a lot of hype. But at 6’8, 6’8+ and 180 pounds, he will make some shots but not much else. Waste of a pick. Finally, in the 8th round, an interesting pick. The much-travelled Earl Timberlake has landed at Bryant with an offensive coach and may be an 8th round steal. Good luck with freshman Eaglestaff, or, Eaglescout, or, whatever. Same with Brandon Johns in the 13th.
G-Robertson
G-Timberlake
F-
F-
C-Mostafa
6th-
Fr-Reneau
Analysis: After a few years of slow, steady progress, the Sams have slipped down into the abyss, again. Malachi Smith put up 24.5 fppg last year. He came off the bench in Gonzaga’s game with Tennessee and got about 15 minutes. Scratch him. It is highly unlikely that Osunniyi will duplicate his numbers from last season after transferring to Iowa State. Ditto for Haase moving from Mercer to Southern Miss-although he has the best chance of the three to be close to last season’s numbers. Harrison averaged 17.1 ppg, but only 14.8 fppg-no upside. It’s a bleak picture. They need at least 3 impact players, POST-DRAFT! That’s not good. They’re at the bottom of the barrel right now.