The “spread” is the point differential between what a player scores and what his fantasy score is. In other words, a player from Seton Hall scores 20 points, but, his fantasy score (when totaling everything up) is 24 points, giving him a +4.0 spread.
I’ve been doing spread on individual players since I first started playing in the league and for several years now, I’ve been keeping track of my team’s spread for each week. So, say my 7 player lineup totaled 200 “real” points during their week of play. And, let’s say that my team totaled 260 fantasy points for the week. I then take that number, 60, and, divide it by the number of games my team played that week. Let’s just say that we played 14 games, making my team spread for the week 4.28.
In general, I like a team spread of 5.0.
And, a stat I just started keeping last year was to add up each player’s scoring average for the week, like we do come playoff time. Another easy one that everybody should do as you can truly see what the future is looking like before it arrives-come playoff time. The DVG’s week 1 scoring average was 127.5. That is not going to get it done in the playoffs. Obviously, since this is how the teams are scored when it counts, I suggest you keep this stat for each week. With this stat, you are looking to average 150.0+ for the week.
Here are the weekly team spread averages for Weeks 1&2 followed by their team’s lineup average-as if it was playoff time. Look closely at the second number-the team’s playoff score for the week!
Week 1 (In order of high to low playoff avg., followed by spread)
1. Gator Bait @170.5 & 7.0
2. North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer @151.5 & 5.5
3. Saluki YRD’s @143.1 & 5.5
4. Prozac Pups @142.5 & 7.1
5. House of Sparky @133.8 & 7.2
6. Maize & Blue Bloods @132.0 & 6.8
7. Sam Jacobson Went To Class @128.5 & 4.8
7. Hardwood Heroes @128.5 & 4.5
9. Deep Valley Grouchos @127.5 & 3.0
10. Hoosiers @125.5 & 5.7
11. Virginia Gentlemen @121.5 & 5.1
12. Psychos @112.5 & 2.7
13. KC Warthogs @107.5 & 5.5
Note: So, if KC has a 5.5 spread how do they go 0-3? Easy. The fantasy college basketball bible says “Thou shalt shooteth a lot of balls.” KC did not do that. They had 14 games. Their lineup had 104 fga’s. That averages out to 7.4 fga’s per man. That’s not going to get it done, regardless of the spread. Their spread kept them from having one of the worst weeks ever. Only two players (Edey & frosh Amari Bailey) took a decent amount of fga’s, and, Bailey’s 24 “real” points translated into just 13 fantasy points, as he was a negative 5.5 spread player. Which teams got up the most FGA’s this week? Gator Bait (3-0) had 176, North Pole (2-1) had 164, Saluki YRD’s (3-0) 163, Hardwood 157 (1-2), and, DVG’s (1-2) 156. The usual culprits, Matt Bradley & Tyger Campbell killed Hardwood while lack of rebounding (5.2 per man average) crushed the DVG’s.
14. Hillbilly Maulers @102.5 & 2.5
15. Vindaloos @100.5 & 4.7 (shorthanded; were missing one player from the lineup and only fielded 6 players)
16. The Hoop Guru @94.0 & 3.3
Week 1 observations: In general, it was a “typical” first week. I’ve noticed over the years that the first week is usually a low-scoring week for most of the teams. Only Gator Bait had a great week, checking in with 341 fantasy points. North Pole was the only other team over 300 with 303. And, only two other teams scored more than 279: Saluki YRD’s with 293 & House of Sparky (welcome!) with 292. 7 teams put up 236 or less. And 4 teams ranged from 256 to 264. This is the norm. As for reaching the playoff bar of 150.0 or better, only two teams were able to accomplish that score. Regardless of the research, all of us are doing some guessing on who the best players are, and, you have the best players on the best teams often not playing too many minutes against really weak opponents and the best players on the weaker teams often playing against super strong opponents. It’s all a recipe for a “suck salad.” So, while there are some things to glean from it all, the 2nd week is where things start to come in focus…I say start. 4 weeks of play leads to more meaningful analysis and I will do one after that deadline has come and gone.
Nice moves! Starting from the earliest to the most recent during week 1 (no comment on any freshman adds).
11/10: Gator Bait beat me to the punch and added Brandin Podziemski. A moment of indecision (The Santa Clara HS is not on my “offensive” coach list) cost me. With such a small sampling, he’s in the “wait and see” category, but, he has strong fantasy fundamentals to his stats that make me think he will be an impact add.
11/11: Two interesting moves by the Virginia Gentlemen in adding Coleman Hawkins and DeShawndre Washington. One DYNAMITE move by the Saluki YRD’s! They added Foster Loyer (interesting) and Jalen Wilson…WOW!!!
11/15: Vindaloos add Maxwell Lewis. Maize & Blue Bloods add Taylor Funk and, even better, Aziz Bandaogo, a possible future Tshiebwe type!
11-18: Chris Brandon, possibly the best rebounder not named Tshiebwe added by the Warthogs.
Week 2 (In order of high to low playoff avg., followed by spread)
1. Gator Bait @194.6 & 9.4
Comment: While a 9.4 spread is likely not sustainable, GB could very well fall in between a low of 6.5 & 8.0 when all is said and done.
2. Deep Valley Grouchos @167.5 & 5.85
Comment: Nice rebound from week one, which had an unbelievable amount of single digit games; in week two they had way too many under 20 point games by players and were saved by 4 huge games. Not sustainable.
3. Saluki YRD’s @164.6 & 5.06
Comment: YRD’s are legit and likely the 2nd best team in the league at the moment.
4. House of Sparky @147.8 & 5.7
5. Sam Jacobson Went To Class @144.0 & 5.36
6. Vindaloos @140.6 & 7.46
Comment: Got Tshiebwe back. Addition of Maxwell Lewis bolsters their frontcourt until Graham Ike can return, and, hopefully, return to form. Grabbing Towt was a smart move as they needed another center and his presence means that either he or Tshiebwe can play the forward spot. Guards are a question spot and I don’t feel that Dean is the answer to their freshman spot. So, they are not yet who I thought they were in the pre-season.
7. Maize & Blue Bloods @137.5 & 4.6
8. North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer @135.0 & 6.0
9. Hardwood Heroes @133.3 & 2.64
10. Hillbilly Maulers @132.0 & 5.58
11. The Hoop Guru @130.5 & 4.07
12. Psychos @128.3 & 3.93
13. Hoosiers @127.3 & 2.28
14. Prozac Pups @107.8 & 4.3
Comment: Long season…no guards…long, long, long season…
15. KC Warthogs @94.2 & 2.6
Comment: The Warthogs were almost put out of business because, quite frankly, nobody wants what they were selling. They stayed “old tech,” when the smart guys went “new tech.” In other words, as mentioned in the pre-season piece I did, they over-valued their roster, in particular, the guys who transferred “up” to bigger programs. They have Edey. And, on the good side of things, Jones has been better than I expected. They just made two nice additions, but they still lack guards and likely have a freshman issue, despite taking THREE. They will get better…
16. Virginia Gentlemen @82.3 & 4.18
Comment: Okafor & Killen cannot be in the starting lineup if they are playing to win. They also jumped on that Schieffelin train way too soon. They have 4 players. ‘Nuff said.
Week 2 observations: The gap is growing! Not the generation gap, or, the economic gap but the gap between the “have” (there is only one), the “have somethings,” the, “could have somethings,” the, “something is better than nothings,” and, finally, the “have nothing.” As I said before the season, Gator Bait is the class of this league. To be special in fantasy college basketball you have to have the “holy trinity.” That would be, in no particular order: Rebounding, guys who get a lot of shots up, and, spread. They are the DOMINANT rebounding team, by far. That’s not going to change. The DVG’s “gave” them Murray, and, the rest of you “gave” him Bannan in the 3rd, so, everybody will need a tremendous amount of luck. Right now, you can mail this year’s championship to GB. Everyone else is playing to get into the championship game, that’s all…barring the unforseen-and, I’m not talking about any of Gator Bait’s players taking a huge slide. He has 3 players averaging 30+ and another 3 averaging 25+. That’s 6 STUDS!!! He has two other players averaging 24+ and his freshman is also averaging 24+. Do I see any corrections? Podziemski’s 32.5 will drop. Probably to 22-25. In general, roster quality is up and only The Hoop Guru (practically bereft of talent-should do a Grand Funk Railroad and burn the hotel down), is in dire straits (my apologies to Mark Knopfler and the band). Sam Jacobson Went To Class (has some talent but not enough-just not really going to do anything with the current roster so they’re going through the motions like Milli Vanilli). So, it promises to be a very interesting season for everyone concerned about second place.
Another meaningful stat is knowing the percentage of games played by your team that had a player score 20 or 20+ fantasy points. So, if you had 14 games in a week and 6 players had games of 20 fantasy points or more, just divide 6 by 14 to get the percentage. I’ve been keeping this for my team since the 2017-2018 season when I realized how much it helped to be aware of this stat. The number to note is 58%. As in you want to have 58% of your player’s fantasy game points equal 20 or higher, not 20 points or lower. The DVG high since that first season was 62.4%. We’ve also had a 59.4%. In our less competitive seasons we only hit 50.4% and 54.8%. This is an easy stat to keep if you already keep your own weekly box score on your computer.