I am going to look at the draft in a few different ways without analyzing the freshmen, because even though there are some, I think will be good, there is no body of work to support anything except a guess. I feel that I can make a pretty good guess as to possible freshman production based on past research but I will leave that alone for now. At the end I tally up the picks from great to bad-those numbers do not include the freshmen.
In order of drafting position (great/good picks marked with an asterisk* in front of player’s name):
The Hoop Guru
1st round: Freshman
4th round: They didn’t have another pick until the 4th round. So, let’s see…worst team in the league (as determined by drafting order) gets the first pick in the draft…which means they need multiple impact players to fill lineup positions…take a freshman…hmm…and, then they take a very good collegiate guard in Jamal Mashburn…who will not impact their lineup because he has…pretty much peaked, fantasy-wise. In averaging 19.1 ppg for New Mexico last year he put up 545 shots. That translated to a fantasy average of 17.7! He has ZERO fantasy upside. So, he’s a bench player who maybe has a good fantasy game once in a while. A good candidate to be their first drop.
5th round: They had back-to-back picks and they bookended Mashburn with another good college player with no fantasy upside in Tyler Burton. LAST year’s Burton would have been a nice pick. This year’s Burton is joining a loaded Villanova roster and his scoring average will go down, ergo, his fantasy average will also plummet.
6th round: A “maybe” as in, maybe Rienk Mast will be able to help. At first glance, not a bad pick at this stage of the draft but there were surer things out there.
7th round: Second of two consecutive picks and they got a good one in *Quinten Post. Of course, if you can get Post, which they did, then, you don’t take Mast. Bad drafting choreography. They must have valued Mast more than Post. Should have taken Post in the 6th and went with somebody else other than Mast in the 7th.
8th round: *R.J. Davis. With Caleb Love gone, I can see Davis adding a point, point+ to his fantasy average, so, I deem this a decent pick for the 8th round since Davis automatically becomes the best guard on their roster.
11th round: Interesting 11th round pick in Javon Small. I took him last year. He was a stat-stuffer (they’re rare) who did everything well at East Carolina. He was putting up big numbers as far as scoring too, until his own coach, for some reason, decided that Small going off (and he was shooting a good percentage) was somehow not in the best interest of his team and his fga’s went way down, and, subsequently, his fg pct., took a steep drop as well. Strange, I know, but true. So, Small is a talented player. Can he be that guy again at Oklahoma State? I don’t know, but in the 11th round, where you should be taking some kind of gamble, this is a worthwhile one to me.
12th round: *Ben Krikke, sr, f-Iowa. First, how does Krikke last until the 12th round? Should have gone no later than the 6th. Wow. Krikke figures to be one of Iowa’s top two scorers and their top rebounder. This is an outstanding pick for The Hoop Guru and all his disciples should rejoice!
13th round: While Andrew Taylor does not figure to do at Mississippi State what he did at Marshall, I don’t consider this a bad pick for the last round. THG was obviously trying to address his team’s guard position with this selection.
Total picks=9
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 3
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So/So-So picks: 3
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: They needed to fill 5 lineup slots. They drafted a freshman first, whom I heard Michigan State HC Tom Izzo say on a podcast will play but will need time to get stronger, etc., etc. Not good, and their first free agent was a “no-help.” I will be generous and give them a “C”
KC Warthogs
1st round: Freshman. While it’s never, as in NEVER smart to draft a freshman in the first round, just don’t compound it by drafting freshmen back-to-back. Because any team drafting 2nd in the draft was the 2nd worst team in the league and has holes to fill in their lineup. Got that?
3rd round: Guess who? An injured freshman who had foot surgery and won’t play until sometime in December…probably, and, will have his minutes managed. In other words, this is one of the most puzzling picks I have ever seen at this stage of the draft. What do they hope to accomplish?
4th round: Oh boy…Camren Hunter becomes the first upperclassman they select. I have Hunter as a tier two player in my draft listings. I have several categories. Tier two players are guys who had fantasy averages of 18+ but don’t have any statistical upside to bump those averages up. Hunter sits on that statistical fence. Being that he is going to be a junior this year, he could show some improvement, but in looking at his stats from last year, how many more fga’s can he get? Can he get way more than the 5 rebounds a game he got? His improvement will have to come from an improved field goal percentage. Good luck with that.
8th round: Finally, the Warthogs make a deft move in taking *B.J. Freeman. He is a “home run” hitter. By that, I mean he is going to have some big games. He will also have some poor games, but he is a high-volume scorer who also rebounds the ball. He is not a gamble, there is just more risk involved than with most players. But that’s great in the 8th round.
10th round: Freshman #3. KC is a true optimist. Probably believes we can have world peace, too.
11th round: The Warthogs followed the example set by The Hoop Guru and make their own, very interesting pick in *Aaron Estrada. Like Small, I had Estrada, but for all of last year. He was great for me until he hurt his ankle. As a player he’s talented. That talent will be on display at Alabama where he will start and I think he will have “some” of everything: Some great games, some good games, some okay games, and, some bad games. I do believe he is an Alabama/SEC level player. I just don’t know how that’s going to play out with Nelson, Sears, Griffen, Wrightsell, and, Stevenson, all sharing the rock as well. But, again, he can play, he has fantasy value, and, it’s a great pick for the round.
12th round: Jacobi Wood. Nice enough spread. 14.2 vs. 9.8 in con. But, even in the 12th, although I think Wood will bump up some, SOME is the operative word.
Total picks=7
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 2
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: I would be drafting to surround Edey with talent. KC obviously did not even consider that path. They did add one impact player but that’s not enough. “D”
Hardwood Heroes
1st round: I’m thinking of writing a theme song for our league, to be played prior to next year’s draft. The title will be “Seduced,” as in how GMs seem to just be seduced by the idea of drafting a freshman with their first pick. Which means that HH took one with their first pick.
2nd round: HH rebounded in the 2nd round with *Traore of BYU. BYU shares the wealth but Traore is only a junior, rebounds ferociously, should get a few more shots, will have a very good fg pct., so, he has statistical upside, and, as a bonus, he is listed as a g/f.
5th round: They had to get another freshman, of course.
8th round: Tier two player Boogie Ellis went to HH in the 8th. Boogie is another of those tier two guys on that statistical fence. With Collier being the primary ballhandler, things should be easier for Ellis. And, Ellis, could maybe get two more fga’s a game than last season. He is on the fence however, because the ability to automatically do that is far from a sure thing and that’s me being optimistic. Not a bad pick, but, I think, maybe a no help pick, sort of like a push in a card game.
9th round: They followed that up with a more interesting pick in the 9th with *Tristan Enaruna, who, I had in my “sleeper” category. He averaged 21+ fppg in conference play last year and has a more likely path to bettering that, as far as statistical upside goes. Good pick. Especially at this point in the draft.
10th round: Freshman. Oh joy!
11th round: Phillip Russell. I don’t particularly care for wire terriers and unless they are some kind of freak, 5’10 guards don’t do it for me in fantasyland. On top of that, Russell is at UT Arlington. Shemar Wilson would be on my roster if he WASN’T at UT Arlington where the coach rotates a lot of players and minutes are rationed. This is a strong thumbs down.
12th round: Boo Buie. This pick doesn’t move any needles. I say that because his real scoring average for Northwestern was 19.1 during conference play. His fantasy average during conference play was 19.05 and he got almost 15 shots per game.
Total picks=8
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 1
ANALYSIS: 2 out of 8 is a 25% success ratio but I am giving them a C+
because they added two probable starters.
Hillbilly Maulers
2nd round: Hillbilly had to wait until the 2nd round to make their first pick and chose a transfer in Rayj Dennis. While taking a transfer, especially this high in the draft, and, even more especially as one’s first pick is pretty much a never for me, it’s still not as bad as taking a freshman with one’s first pick…but, it’s close. Dennis is going from Toledo, where he was everything, to Baylor, where he will be an important piece of the puzzle, but, where his scoring average will really drop. In other words, he was most definitely NOT the guy to take here.
3rd round: HM then compounded this bad start by taking a freshman point guard.
6th round: Hmm…another frosh point guard. Really?
9th round: Moses Wood. He’s decent, transferring up and didn’t rebound it at Portland, so, I don’t see him moving the needle at Washington, or, the fantasy needle for the Maulers.
12th round: Dame Adelekun. Adelekun is transferring up from the Ivy but managed to produce a fantasy average of 23.5 vs. a scoring average of 16.8 in Ivy league conference play in just 25.8 minutes per game! That’s impressive because the Ivy is the only league where players often average less in conference play than in non-conference play, and, he got less than 26 minutes per game! His spread of 9.0 is also impressive.
13th round: Day Day Thomas. Good numbers at juco. But, since he is actually battling with a freshman for the job, I will simply say: “meh…”
Total picks=6
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 1
ANALYSIS: A little bit of everything with a transfer moving up being the only positive thing equals a “C”
Virginia Gentlemen
2nd round: First pick came in the 2nd round. Despite their high (drafting 5th) draft position, the VG’s have a very good roster and can afford a few mistakes-so, they decided to take a freshman. Of course, if you have a good roster, one that could compete for a championship, and, need guards, then, you really can’t afford to make a mistake, can you? So, in retrospect, I think not taking a guard here was a huge mistake considering how talented they are at the forward & center positions.
3rd round: They took Dalton Knecht, who transferred from Northern Colorado to play for one of America’s finest coaches at Tennessee. Problem is, they return 3 strong backcourt players, Rick Barnes values defense over offense, they don’t play up-tempo, so, while I don’t question Knecht’s ability to play “up” in the SEC, I wonder how many looks he will get & how consistent he can be since he definitely won’t get the same number of fga’s he got at Northern Colorado & will have to be more efficient.
7th round: They took Delaware’s Christian Ray, one of the best, if not the best, rebounding guard in college basketball. Trouble is, Ray has no offense. So, in fantasy terms, his ceiling is very limited. Another no-help whiff at their one position of need, guard. Ouch.
11th round: I like this pick. *Matthew Cleveland has left the offensive desert of Florida State and landed at Miami-FL. He had a decent spread and should be more of a weapon with the ‘Canes.
13th round: *Kevin McCullar is some more late round magic from the ‘Gents. While he is considered somewhat of a “glue player” for Kansas, he has some room for a nice bump. Looking at Kansas, he should be the #2 option and therefore, could be a great and not just a good pick.
Total picks=6
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 0
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: They took the scenic route to getting guard help, taking two questionable players first before “stealing” McCullar, who I think will likely be an MML top ten scorer at the guard position, and nabbing a potentially good one in Cleveland. So, “B” it is.
Sam Jacobson Went To Class
1st round: Sam is a noted afficionado of freshmen. So, no surprise to see him take one with his first pick.
2nd round: Of course, Sam’s MO (modus operandi for you Latin scholars) meant he had to go with back-to-back freshmen (or, instead of MO, would one substitute addiction?).
6th round: Sam then took a huge gamble (not a risk) in the 6th with the selection of Mason Walters, who is transferring up to DI to Wyoming. Too early in the draft process for this move, IMHO.
7th round: At this point, Sam says, “what the heck,” and takes his 3rd freshman.
9th round: Sam took a *Traore. There were three Traores available in this year’s draft. This Traore, the 3rd best of them, is a transfer from Auburn to UC Santa Barbara. I like his potential as a double-double dude.
13th round: Freshman.
Total picks=6
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 0
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: Traore may or may not make an impact this year after not playing much on a loaded Auburn team and it’s highly doubtful that Walters moves the needle. Sammie really gambled; poorly, I might add with every selection except for the 9th, a round where a gamble is fine-but only if you selected well earlier. He didn’t. “F”
House of Sparky
1st round: Freshman.
2nd round: HOS rebounded “sharply” in the 2nd round by selecting *DeMarcus Sharp. Now, again, I don’t like transfers, and, certainly not as high draft picks, but, Sharp, while he is transferring up from a barely DI program to an OVC program, will be playing at his new school for his previous head coach. So, I think there is minimal risk involved and I think this is a great pick. There were, after all, only 3 fantasy studs (25+ fppg) in the FA pool. Sharp was one of those three.
4th round: Erik Reynolds of St. Joseph’s went in the 4th. There is some disagreement about Reynolds. His upside appears very limited. On the other hand, as I was told, his last 10 games were highly productive, fantasy-wise, as he averaged 23+. St. Joe’s has two other productive guards who figure to take a few more jacks (shots) this year, and, Reynolds doesn’t rebound. So, will the 2023-2024 Reynolds be the Reynolds of the last 10 games, or, the Reynolds whose overall statistical analysis says that there is very little wriggle room as far as upward mobility goes? I am not a fan per say, but let’s call this an interesting pick and not a bad one for now.
5th round: Personally, I LOVE their 5th round pick, although it’s a highly speculative one. *Yaxel Lendeborg is a first-year player at UAB who is a juco transfer. Juco transfers, with very, very rare exception need a year to adjust. The reason I think Lendeborg can do something right away, is that he is a power forward (the easiest position to move up to from the juco ranks), and, he was a strong and consistent double-double machine. Of course, there is risk here, but, it’s a worthwhile risk and he could turn out to be a stud. Players do what they do at all levels and when it comes to rebounding, that is the most transferable skill.
7th round: Francis Nwaokorie from UC San Diego. He can shoot, but, again, program history and program history under a particular coach is the DNA that needs to be known before making a decision, and, I don’t see this as a good pick at all.
8th round: HOS comes back in the 8th with a “good risk” in transfer *Supreme Cook-Georgetown. He is making a massive move up from Fairfield. But, G-Town has a new coach and they need a big to step up. Cook should have every opportunity to get some numbers. He had a great spread of 6.2 at Fairfield. The question is if he will score at the same rate (13 ppg @Fairfield) at G-Town. Still, for the 8th round I like the pick. I don’t love it (but, I could), but it makes some sense.
11th round: Keshawn Williams. I have him as a tier two guy on my board because there isn’t much upside to be had.
Total picks=7
Great picks: 2
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 1
ANALYSIS: He is relying on 3 transfers, but I have to give him a solid “B+” for getting Sharp, adding a power forward who will be given every opportunity to be the double-double machine he was at juco, and a player who should be hungry to prove that he can do what he did at the low DI level for a Big East team who needs him to be that guy. And, Reynolds could be better than I think. Some of this grade is on speck, but they had a good draft with the potential to be an “A” if Lendeborg impacts like I think he can.
North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
1st round: I can’t lie. North Pole broke my heart with their first pick in the first round, *Zeke Mayo. I’d been planning on taking Mayo first for quite a while. Statistically, he was not the top FA (free agent), not even the top statistically among guards, but, since I was targeting the guard position in this draft and not the BPA (best player available), he was who I wanted. I was counting on a max of only two upperclassmen drafted (I was pretty sure that Gator Bait would take an upperclassman), so, while there was a chance that one other team would not take a freshman, I thought that with Lasina Traore (the top stud statistically) available, Mayo was safe. Anyways, finally, I can say: Great pick! NPFR was able to overcome all the freshman seduction techniques and get an impact player. Great job!
2nd round: They also DID NOT take a freshman in the 2nd round! Wow! NPFR has left the dark side and come into the light. Their pick was an interesting one. *Sadadrienne Hall from Stephen F. Austin has all the upside in the world. Which is also the question. His coach likes to play a lot of guys, and, so, he achieved what he achieved in way fewer minutes than he should have gotten, or, would have gotten in another program. So, the question is will the HC give him those minutes and make this another impact pick for North Pole, or, will it be same old, same old? See, interesting.
3rd round: I think NPFR “whiffed” in the 3rd round. Chris Youngblood was the man at Kennesaw State, got a ton of fga’s, tons of treys, high fg pct., and still couldn’t do better than 18.8 fppg vs. 14.7 as the man. All of that means he has ZERO fantasy upside as he moves UP to South Florida. I don’t see it happening, but good luck.
4th round: In the 4th they took their first freshman.
7th round: I can’t really give a strong opinion on 7th round pick Jacob Ognacevic one way or the other. I do wish that at his size he was a better rebounder. He’s had two years to show that he is and hasn’t done so yet. But, at 4.9 rpg, he’s not horrible. Still, rebounding is his path to any true fantasy success. So, I’m curious, and, he’s interesting.
8th round: Freshman.
10th round: Seems like Tulane’s Kevin Cross has been playing college basketball forever, and, I’ve been waiting for him to become a real good fantasy prospect for about 3 years now…and, he still doesn’t rebound, nor, does he assert himself enough offensively. He remains a “usual suspect” as far as fantasy potential. So, I would have just waited until the season started and checked a few Tulane box scores to see if anything has changed with him instead of picking him, even if it is in the 10th round.
13th round: Jaylin Hunter was the last pick of the 2023 MML draft, making him our Mr. Irrelevant…and, he is.
Total picks=8
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 0
Questionable So-So picks: 3
Bad/poor picks: 1
ANALYSIS: Getting an impact guard automatically makes the grading floor a “B.” Hall has the numbers and just needs his college coach to give him the minutes. Ognacevic can be better than he is, ditto for Cross-although I think that Cross is what he is…a semi-talented underachiever. “B” it is.
Hoosiers
1st round: Freshman
2nd round: Jace Carter-who I loved-BEFORE he transferred to the offensive Death Valley known as Texas A&M. In their summer tour, he didn’t even start. Regardless, he will get minutes but he’s not going to get anything resembling the fga’s that a proven scorer should get. Like Knecht, this will be an early drop.
3rd round: Frankie Policelli is better than either of their first two picks, but, likely a “no-help” pick. Frankie is a strong rebounder and should lead his new team in that stat but Charleston has players and even if Frankie hadn’t transferred his prior numbers didn’t show any statistical upside. So, to me, this is an 0-3 start to the draft.
5th round: Freshman
6th round: They take a player I like. While the jury is still out on *Robbie Avila, his stats show a lot of upside. So, I think he’s a keeper and it will be 2024 that should be a really good season for this current soph.
7th round: *Anton Watson in the 7th is a great pick. While I don’t know if Watson (21+ fppg in conference play) will become “the man” for the Zags or continue to be Robin to whomever the new Batman is, it’s a solid pick. If he stays the same, that’s fine, and, if he gets more looks and bumps up a point or two, great. Good, solid pick.
9th round: It’s the 9th round, if in doubt, who do you call? Ghostbusters? Hardly. You grab another freshman.
10th round: The jury (mine) is still out on Aidan Mahaney. Not as a player, but as a fantasy player. The only good thing I can say for sure is it didn’t hurt them to take him in the 10th. He’s going to be the leading scorer for St. Mary’s. My concern with him being a viable fantasy player is rebounding. I don’t think he does much of that and it’s hard to be a good fantasy player without that stat unless you can overcompensate with a huge number of assists.
Total picks=9
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks:
ANALYSIS: Watson & Avila still don’t save this draft from being a “C” at best.
Psychos
1st round: Freshman
2nd round: Senior *Charles Thompson. The “Chucker” has improved his real stats every single year, but, again, while I wouldn’t bet against him continuing to do that, he does not have much, if any, fantasy upside, so, I don’t see him as an impact pick-which is fine if you want a solid guy for depth and get him in the 5th or 6th round.
4th round: Senior Trey Calvin. Calvin gets good real stats but not good fantasy stats. He is a 2nd tier prospect to me, as he has hit his fantasy ceiling.
6th round: I like senior *Matt Rogers. I have him as a sleeper/breakout type of fantasy prospect. I think he gets more minutes and more jacks this year.
7th round: Senior Jordan Johnson cannot go up, fantasy-wise-the numbers don’t lie. So, he is a likely candidate to be the first drop.
8th round: Senior P.J. Hall. If he can stay healthy, he is one of those “interesting” guys I have mentioned, in that I think that he personally, has some upside, I don’t know if he has much fantasy upside based on how Clemson plays offensively. And, his ability to rebound is in question. So, let’s wait and see.
9th round: Senior Spencer Jones from Stanford. He should be the go-to guy for Stanford but what does that mean when looking at his stats? It means that while there is roughly a 20% chance that he could have a big fantasy season, the likelihood is that he won’t.
10th round: Senior Isaiah Cozart, taken in the 10th has a great spread but also no upside as Eastern Kentucky is not changing his role as far as him getting some looks. You may notice a trend here. Outside of the freshmen, the Psychos have taken all seniors and their GM prefers seniors. Pre-draft I thought there were ONLY 5 impact FA’s available. Two were seniors. That meant that looking at only seniors, you would already have lost 60% of the available impact players. The Psychos could have had both of those impact seniors but they passed. Bad drafting choreography.
11th round: Freshman.
Total picks=8
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 3
Questionable So-So picks: 2
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: I don’t care that the Psychos GM prefers seniors. That’s his philosophy and even if I don’t agree with limiting one’s draft choices, I can respect that, but, of course, you then have to “hit” with tremendous accuracy on what available impact seniors there are in the FA pool. IMHO, they did not. Rogers could go off but that is not enough to save them from a “C-“
Vindaloos
1st round: They hit a home run with their first pick in getting *Lasina Traore, the top FA available! Boo-ya!
3rd round: In the 3rd, they meekly grounded out to third in taking Walter Clayton. He’s not only transferring up, but to a Florida team loaded in guards. His numbers will be going down-and, he wasn’t a worthy 2nd round pick even if he had not transferred.
9th round: Freshman.
10th round: The daily double! Freshman.
Total picks=4
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 0
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: Well, they only had 4 picks and wasted two on freshmen, but in getting a guy (Traore) who averaged 26+ fppg in conference play last year they added a stud. On an annual basis, there is usually less than one stud per team to go around, that automatically gives them a grade of “B.”
Prozac Pups
2nd round: Pick was their first and they went…freshman…
3rd round: *Vonterius Woolbright. His fantasy average at 20.9 in conference play and his spread of 5.2 is more than respectable. He was in my sleeper category. Good pick, maybe a round or two, too high, but still a good pick. IF he can improve his shooting this becomes a great pick. I used to believe that improving one’s shooting was not that difficult to do…and, it isn’t, or, shouldn’t be. What concerns me with Woolbright is that he is going to be a senior, meaning he has had 3 collegiate off seasons to get that done. So, I don’t know if he can do that, but he is a good guard to have.
5th round: They went guard again with Ajay Mitchell from UC Santa Barbara. A good player, but one without any fantasy upside. A “no-help” pick.
8th round: Freshman.
10th round: They made an interesting pick in f/c *Maxime Raynaud from Stanford who had an impressive bunch of games this summer when they played overseas. That should mean an increased role for him. So, while it’s Stanford and the Haase’s ass coaching them, I see upside here.
12th round: Freshman
Total picks=6
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 0
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: Woolbright is good…for a guard. Raynaud could be an effective starting level fantasy player this year…could. So, a “C” is the grade here.
Maize and Blue Bloods
1st round: Freshman.
2nd round: Another daily double! Freshman.
3rd round: *Grant Nelson-Alabama. Statistically, Nelson, in conference play, had the highest fppg average of all the FA’s. But, transferring up from North Dakota State to Alabama hurt his value. I can tell you that Nelson isn’t going to average anything close to the 27 or so fppg he did, but I can see him as a 21-22 guy, with the inconsistency that moving to the SEC, and, playing with more talented teammates can bring. The thing is that to get that 21-22 fppg average, he has to rebound well. I don’t think he is going to get as many fga’s, so, he must be a constantly good rebounder. I think he will get a few more treys and hit a higher percentage of those treys which can make up for a few less fga’s per game. So, again, an interesting pick.
4th round: I actually like the selection of *Jahsean Corbett better than that of Nelson. Corbett figures to bump up his fantasy average this year, which was 19.8 last year. The only question is how much. A 2-3 point bump is not unreasonable.
6th round: Their likely first cut from their draft will be 6th round pick Kellen Tynes. At first glance it would appear that coming off of the soph season he had, there should be plenty of room to grow. But, again, when you crunch the numbers, there just isn’t much more that is likely to happen for Tynes.
10th round: The 10th round was the perfect spot to get a “sleeper” like *Nico Galette. I drafted Galette last year. It was his first year being the man for his team. He couldn’t handle the pressure and I wound up dropping him. However, now that he has gone through it and returns as the man, this g/f could wind up getting that 23 fppg average I thought he was capable of getting. I like this pick for the MBB’s.
11th round: Freshman
Total picks=7
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 3
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 0
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: “B-.” This can be a strong “B” if Galette averages 22+fppg. Corbett should be at least 21+ while Nelson could be all over the board as far as performance. So, there’s potential for this trio to be better and/or worse.
Saluki YRD’s
3rd round: They did not get to pick until the 3rd round. They went with Jalen Cook-LSU. He’s transferring up and will get plenty of opps to do what he previously did-shoot, but he wasn’t a great fantasy option at his old school. So, for a first pick, I didn’t like it.
>POST-ANALYSIS NOTE: Bad luck for the YRD’s as they see their top choice refused a waiver allowing him to play this year. It’s not over as LSU will appeal but it doesn’t look good.
4th round: Freshman.
5th round: The becoming-not-so-rare daily double! Freshman.
6th round: Jordan Minor has transferred up to Virginia and they took him. My question: What has been happening at Virginia, offensively, since Tony Bennett (an excellent coach) assumed the head job? Answer: Not much of anything. They go deep in the clock and distribute the ball. I don’t think that Virginia has had even one player average as much as 18 ppg during his tenure. So, I don’t see why Minor was a priority here.
7th round: They went for another transfer with Isaac Mushila, now at New Mexico-which returns two guards who WERE the offense & have Nely Joseph also transferring in. Mushila has a better probability than Minor of putting up some numbers, but, he’s not likely to produce anything close to what he had for Gator Bait last year.
8th round: Sticking with the transfer theme, they next took Connor Vanover, a frequent traveler, now at Missouri. Vanover has however, always managed to have a very strong spread and if you are getting desperate in the 8th round, not a bad choice at all.
9th round: Next transfer up: Terrion Murdix. Somehow, while putting up 23+ as Mushila’s college teammate last year, he managed to not get picked up by anybody. And, now, he has transferred up to Western Kentucky. He is interesting. I think he can play at the higher level, but I don’t know about him being a strong fantasy pickup at his new school-even though he is playing for his former coach. He’s worth a shot in the 9th round, but I just don’t know.
10th round: they chose Bonke (“Bonk,” “Bon-key,” “Bon-kee?”) Maring, an interesting f/c prospect from Houston Christian. Interesting because statistically, it looks like he can do a lot more. But, also interesting because despite his positive stats, both real & fantasy, the HC didn’t give him the minutes you would think he should get, nor, the fga’s. So, my guess (haven’t see him or Houston Christian play) is that he gets putbacks and is a rim runner, and maybe gets an occasional look in the post. If that changes, this could become a great pick. If it doesn’t, he provides some depth during the regular season when a player only has one game and he has two.
11th round: Tyzhaun Claude. This is no sure thing because Claude has transferred up, but he had a good fantasy season last year and with Georgia Tech being down he will surely be given every opportunity to produce, so, I like this pick for the slot.
Total picks=9
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 5
Questionable So-So picks: 2
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: Too many question marks here to give them a “B.” In fact, “C+” is a little generous perhaps, but I try to be an optimist. However, they could hit on Vanover, Murdix & Claude, which would result in a solid “B.”
Deep Valley Grouchos
1st round: As I mentioned earlier, NPFR broke my heart when they took my Mayo. I always choreograph my draft. I don’t just list a bunch of guys I want more than the others. I try to predict who may go early to mid to late and I incorporate that into my draft strategy. This year I went against my BPA philosophy since I was loaded at the forward/center spots and really wanted to avoid, if possible, the guard anxiety one feels during the season and the playoffs. Guard, or, I should say quality guards, are always in the shortest of supply relative to the other positions. Fortunately, IMHO, there were 4 elite FA guards. With Mayo gone, I actually did not take my #2 guard pick as I felt that with some luck, he could be on the board when I made my second selection, although that meant having to wait 24 picks to get him. So, I took *Tyler Kolek. Kolek averaged 22.9 fppg last season in conference play and somehow nobody added him last season. I don’t see him really being able to bump that up much, if at all, unless he suddenly starts looking to score more, but, that’s okay. The number is just fine.
4th round: My 2nd best guard, that I waited for? That would be *Roger McFarlane-Southeastern Louisiana, who, I hoped was flying under the radar. He was, and, I got him. 23.8 fppg in conference play last season. His first after transferring from jc. That was impressive and means he has upside to do even better and crack the 25+ fppg studline.
9th round: My third pick was also taken, and, that just merely made me decide to bump up my fourth and final pick to that slot in the 9th round where I took Payton Sandfort, g/f-Iowa. Iowa plays up-tempo. They have a HC who is an aggressive offensive coach that players like to play for. Iowa will have good scoring balance but the transfer, Krikke, and, Sandfort figure to be the top two scorers and my guess is that Sandfort will average around 16+ & maybe 7 boards as they will play “small” most of the time with him at the four which will increase his rebounding chances. He makes treys, hits a high percentage and doesn’t turn it over much and will get a few assists per game. Getting the 7th most minutes on the team last year as a soph, he was still 4th in scoring. He’s ready to take a leap forward in his game. A big leap, I would wager. But he is still a Questionable So-So pick, although one that is worth the risk asa 9th rounder.
10th round: Freshman. Lastly, with my fourth and final pick, I re-thought it after moving Sandfort up a draft slot. While there are plenty of interesting players that I will be tracking, I thought: Why take a gamble on an upperclassman here? If I am going to take a gamble, take on one a freshman. Why? Well, like just about everybody, I like having two freshmen on my roster. It can easily take 4 tries to get the two, right freshmen. So, since I am not sure yet about any of the remaining upperclassmen, if I am going to take a player on spec, make it a freshman. That means I can take my time and scout the upperclassmen that I like as well as the other freshmen that I like. Most of my top ten rated fantasy freshmen prospects were not selected in the draft. And, I now have 8 moves to get it right.
Total picks=4
Great picks: 2
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 0
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: Kolek & McFarlane are proven, and, they are guards, the position that always has the fewest proven fantasy players making this a “B+” draft because they will both impact. I like Sandfort, or, I wouldn’t have taken him but he is a spec who still has to prove his bonafides.
Gator Bait
1st round: I thought Gator Bait had the most “interesting” draft of all the teams. That’s both interesting “maybe,” interesting “good,” and, interesting “not so good.” Put together, since he had the last pick of the first round and the first pick of the second round, back-to-back picks, I did not like his first two picks. I do like *Keegan Records, but not as a first pick. I’m pretty sure that GB & I look at things the same way. Records stat line reads like a guy who is going to have a breakout season. But, since he is at Colgate, under the Colgate system, I don’t think so. I see him doing just slightly better. I reserve the right to be wrong, but I don’t think so. What does all of this mean? It means I like Keegan a lot if you’re picking him in the 5th of 6th round. He should not be the first selection of the draft when there are some sure things still on the board.
2nd round: The second of the two consecutive picks is even more interesting. I do not like players from the SWAC, MEAC, or, the service academies. Rytis Petraitis had a heckuva freshman season for Air Force. And, if he were anywhere else, I would love this pick. Because normally, when you see his stat line you say, this kid should explode as a soph. But he’s running the Princeton offense, coached by Joe Scott, and, Joe has never featured a player…EVER. So, guys have good seasons but they usually can’t go off the next season even though they should because he’s not only not drawing up anything for them, but he’s not telling them to go hunt a little bit more, not telling his guard to find them a little more, etc., etc. So, I really do want to be wrong about this, but I don’t see Petraitis doing much more than he did last year. A little bump, I would think, but, not significant. So, as a number two pick, I don’t like him. I would love him as a 9th or 10th round pick. Again, I reserve the right to be wrong. Maybe Joe Scott says to himself: “I have never had a player like this at Air Force and I probably won’t ever have one like him again. I’m going to run the offense through him.” Who knows? Stranger things have happened.
3rd round: Similar, but, for a different reason is the selection of Florida guard Riley Kugel in the 3rd. Riley had a great freshman season and should be primed to go off this year. But Florida brought in two transfer guards in addition to have another really good guard on the roster. How many more jacks can Kugel get? How many more rebounds? I just don’t see a career path to statistical advancement for him.
4th round: Going back-to-back again, GB went with the most puzzling pick (to me) of the first four in choosing Terrence Edwards of James Madison. Edwards has talent, but, again, the numbers, and the roster don’t indicate to me that he can take a big leap and he wasn’t a great spread guy either. So, his selection just doesn’t look good to me.
8th round: This is more like it! *Jermaine Marshall is a great get in the 8th round! He was 20+ fppg in conference and should be able to manage a nice bump up.
9th round: Meh…Malevy Leons is not a bad player, but, again, I don’t know how much he can bump up his fantasy average. I actually would’ve taken a bigger gamble in this slot with a player who is high reward/high risk.
10th round: Now this is more like it! How about possible high reward with very low risk? *Kyreese Mullins is your man. A brilliant pick, especially considering the round by Gator Bait. Mullins is in my sleeper tier but is also a breakout candidate. He gets a rebound every 3 minutes and he should score more this year. Fabulous get. Shows that GB does his homework.
11th round: Freshman.
Total picks=8
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 3
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 2
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: The most interesting draft group this year. I have to give them a “B-.” They don’t get a “B” because, again, there are too many questions about Records & Marshall, and, even Mullins. I like all three but will Keegans be given a real opportunity to get at least 3 more fga’s per game? In regards to the system at Samford, will that coach hand Marshall the keys to the car and give him more fga’s? Mullins may be the best bet. One would have to think they are going to give him about 8 more minutes which is 2+rebounds and, as a 2nd year player, at least another 3 fga’s per game. Of course, if they all “hit,” this becomes a solid “B,” possibly a “B+.”