I don’t really make predictions; I just go where the numbers say. Having said that, I’ve been in this league since almost the beginning and I can’t ever remember seeing so many potent rosters. That translates into a high possibility of upsets, although, because there are a lot of loaded rosters, some of those upsets will not be huge upsets. I will look at the teams, going from worst to best listing the total weekly scoring average of their best lineup statistically-which is an indicator of how strong a team is, but is not necessarily what I think a team’s best lineup is.
Have to hit back-to-back snake eyes and/or boxcars to win
Vindaloos
The ‘Vins, who have a proud history, simply have only one big gun in Great Osobor. Graham Ike has a nice enough +6.0 spread, but that translates to 21.0 fppg. Duncan Powell was a nice pick up but is more likely to be a real force next year. At +7.5, Lassina Traore also has a nice spread but seems to only be up when his brother’s stats are down and hasn’t been close to the in-conference force he was last year. They simply don’t have the juice to even consider them a legitimate threat to pull off an upset in the first round.
G-Osobor
G-Derkack
F-Powell
F-L. Traore
C-Ike
6th-Townsend
Fr-Missi
Total:
NOTE: They could switch places with the Sammies, but, outside of Osobor, is Traore a guy who will suddenly average the 26+ he did last year…I mean, what happened to that dude? They’re just the Bobby Blue Bland, not band-but bland.
Are Venus & Mars aligned?
Sam Jacobson Went To Class
They have been able to have some players give performances above their performance level once in a while-which is something, but, not enough. I liked the add of Avila, although he was a non-rebounding center at the time because he was a sophomore stat-stuffer and could be great next year…well, he has discovered how to rebound all of a sudden and is really good now. Pierce was another good pickup and also a soph. But, WTF is Mason Walters still doing on the roster?!
G-Timberlake
G-Pepper
F-Pierce
F-Robertson
C-Avila
6th-Allen-Eikens
Fr-Sheppard
Total:
NOTE: They could actually be higher, but their guys are so doggone erratic. Robertson will have a 30-point fantasy game and then a 14, stopping a lot in-between, but mainly under 20. Allen-Eikens is even worse. Too many things have to lineup for them to go more than one round in the winner’s bracket and a first round upset is unlikely.
Enrique Freeman vs. the entire fantasy world and bringing a knife to a gun battle
House of Sparky
Freeman, may actually be the most consistent, along with Saint Thomas of all the studs we have this year.
G-Sharp
G-Thomas
F-Freeman
F-Ighodaro
C-Mitchell
6th-Lendeborg
Fr-Harris
Total:
NOTE: The fantasy volatility index, the VIX of fantasy basketball will have to be in their favor as they cannot win unless their two-home run/strikeout sluggers Lendeborg & Thomas step up. Lendeborg is more consistent, usually only sucking when shackled with foul trouble. Thomas is wildly erratic although he was going great guns until recently. This all means that they are more of a one and done candidate than an upset candidate.
Hillbilly Maulers
They’ve done a lot to improve the roster and have succeeded in doing so, but the climb was so steep and there was only so much they could do. They could pull an upset but would need both max performances and a couple of season highs from their people and a couple of sub double-digit performances from their opponents. Not likely to happen in the first round where they will be facing a high seed. Jevon Porter has been coming on of late, and, “KK” Robinson has had the occasional big game but they are likely a one and done.
G-Robinson
G-Kolek
F-Minix
F-Crews
C-Beagle
6th-Fiedler
Fr-Dailey
Total:
NOTE: Alluding to the title above, it’s a big hunting knife, but, a knife against automatic weapons is useless unless you have Steven Segal holding it.
Trying to get a meet with the Dalai Lama
The Hoop Guru
The Hoop Guru does not have a heavy hitter. Post is certainly having a good season but 25+ qualifies as a heavy hitter. Behind him, Sears is having a good season but everyone else is either underachieving, doing okay, or, is erratic. They don’t have a poor lineup, merely an average one, which makes them mediocre.
G-Sears
G-Davis
F-James
F-Carlson
C-Post
6th-Mast
Fr-Falslev
Total:
Don’t provoke the bear(s)
Hardwood Heroes
HH does have more than an outside chance of an upset. David Jones knows he’s the man for Memphis, and, more importantly, his coaches appear to know it-so, he’s dangerous and so is Filipowski. They also have some on and off dangerous guys that can suddenly awake from hibernation and come up with a big game. The hibernators include Brooks, Enaruna, Milton, and, Buie. And, they have a decent freshman. So, if they all “get hungry” at the same time, they could do some damage-and, what’s interesting is HH’s recent playoff history.
G-Milton
G-Ellis
F-D. Jones
F-Brooks
C-Filipowski
6th-Mitchell
Fr-Williams
Total:
NOTE: HH is doing what they have been doing in recent years-and, I might add, have had success at doing-making moves at the 25th hour to see if they can get it done. Most notably adding rebounding machine Frank Mitchell. Guards are the issue here. Milton is up and down. Will probably be great next year but is a week-to-week roller-coaster ride now. Ellis has an occasional big game but is also erratic. Assuming that Filipowski & Jones are at their peak, if the guards are both on, they can win. So, I list them here, near the bottom, but with this caveat: They could go down right away, they could definitely upset their first-round opponent, they could go a few rounds in the winner’s bracket-they are a team that you do not want to face.
Gator Bait
Yes, it’s true they don’t have a stud (or, do they-see below) and the better teams seem to have at least three this year. However, they do have seven players averaging between 22-24 and a good freshman. They have increasingly shown signs of life over the last 4 weeks or so and if their opponent sees a few guys take a dip, they could have a shot at a first round upset.
G-Davis
G-Devries
F-McGlothan
F-Petraitis
C-Tainamo
6th-Alexis
Fr-G. Johnson
Total:
Note: They wisely added Knecht, who was dropped, and, rightfully so, by another team but rebounded when Rick Barnes told him the Vols needed him to be the man as they lacked scoring. To their credit, Gator Bait was watching and swooped him up. He’s been putting it up ever since and doing so with pretty damn good consistency. You may consider him a pseudo-stud, but all that matters is that he seems to be dropping 30 or more fantasy points just about every time out. He will replace one of the above in the lineup (probably Petraitis and/or Alexis) and give them a guy who can put up a big number-something they have lacked all season since Charles seems to have lost his Pride. Knecht is the only reason they are ranked above HH.
Saluki YRD’s
Saint Thomas is a week in-week out stud! Ojiako is consistently good at center. Durogordon & Ajayi can be explosive-if also erratic. Shannon is back and they have a decent freshman. Again, that’s not enough
G-Durogordon
G-Shannon
F-Thomas
F-Ajayi
C-Ojiako
6th-West
Fr-Perkins
Total:
NOTE: The YRD’s are maybe the best positioned of these teams to pull off an upset since they have a consistent stud, a consistently good center and a couple of guys who can go off. Thomas & Ojiako are better (IMHO) because of their consistency than anybody on HH or GB, hence, they are slightly above them.
Guards are like a box of Cracker Jacks-you never know what you’re going to get
Psychos
The sum of their parts is more impressive than the individual pieces although they are the first team listed here to have 3 studs (25+ fppg) on their roster.
G-Newton
G-Stevens
F-Cozart
F-Ledee
C-Hall
6th-Cohen (but it will likely be Smith)
Fr-Dillingham
Total:
NOTE: They have gone through a lot. Cohen was somewhat of a disappointment but when his UMass teammate Matt Cross, went down with an injury, he became the Josh Cohen we all thought he was. Then, Cross comes back and voila! Cohen suddenly sucked. That’s why I think it’s more likely that Tolu Smith-who was a nice add, will fill that spot. But, as always (and, I empathize), it’s about the guards. Newton & Stevens are starting to be a little less reliable and the two previous starting guards are now where they belong-on the bench. Despite having three studs, this team is no sure bet to go more than two rounds. But, if all three studs are on, the guards just have to be average and they could be a force.
The Edey factor looms large
KC Warthogs
Again, I must remind you that Edey counts for one and a half players; meaning that a player who registers a single digit or low double digit game averages out to 20 or more when combined with what Edey tallies. It would not be unusual if Edey, during the playoffs, should average more than his 33+fppg regular season average.
G-Simpson
G-Traore
F-Wolf
F-Karaban/Shumate
C-Edey
6th-Lee
Fr-Buchanan
Total:
NOTE: The GM has done a nice job. Simpson has been a surprise. Traore is better than he was last year. Wolf is having a nice season. Shumate has picked up as of late. Surprisingly, it’s Buchanan who gives them an edge in a tight matchup. For the last two years Bishop took every shot he could for George Washington. Now, that’s changed and Buchanan, as a freshman, is the man and he rebounds. Alexander & Freeman, while erratic, provide quality depth at the guard position.
Trending up and we have Woolbright and you don’t
Prozac Pups
Woolbright…that’s all I should need to say. And, don’t sleep on Holmes-he has become a stud.
G-Woolbright
G-Mitchell
F-Holmes
F-Raynaud
C-Dante
6th-Dixon/Reneau
Fr-Toppin
Total:
NOTE: Woolbright is the scariest player in the league not named Edey or Dickinson because of the possibility that he can get a triple-double. Best fantasy guard this year by far! Mitchell has become the Mitchell he has always been which is not good news while the return of healthy starters to the New Mexico lineup is affecting Toppin-who is a stud, in a not so good way for the Pups-in other words, if they had an ace in the hole it was Toppin; now, there is some slippage. Holmes & Raynaud have been on an upswing & Dante is back. The 3 teams above them may all be better…or, not…but just because the PP’s have Woolbright, I have to rank them a little higher. He lifts every player’s performance in the lineup. Of course, they did get burned on impulse buying in regards to Battle & Gross-Bullock or they coulda’ been like Brando…they coulda’ been a contender!
In no particular order: The next four are not only in it to win it, but are more than capable
North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
Hunter Dickinson is “Edey-esque,” and that’s huge in the playoffs. Recent add Mikeal Brown-Jones & Kevin Cross are both statistical studs. So, they have 3 studs. Drew Cisse is a mini-stud and they have a high-quality freshman in Ndongo. What’s not to like?
G-Lipsey
G-Mayo
F-Brown-Jones
F-K. Cross
C-Dickinson
6th-Cisse
Fr-Ndongo
Total:
NOTE: Cross occasionally reverts to the non-rebounding Cross but he’s had a very good season and the only real fly in their ointment, and, it’s not usually a big problem is the volatility of their guards. Mayo has been coming on but they never know what Lipsey is going to produce. Milicic gives them a much steadier option if they choose to go to their bench. They can hunt the big game. The question is, depending on their guards, can they just wound their prey, or, can they finish the beast off? Stats don’t lie, so the Hoosiers definitely have the most firepower but to me, NPFR may have the scariest lineup.
Maize and Blue Bloods
It’s nice to have the most underrated of the elite players in Scheierman. Scheierman can have 3 fantasy points at the half and wind up with 30. Scheierman can go 4-17 and wind up with 25 fantasy points. He just finds a way to get it done. I wanted him but MMB snagged him just as I was going to pull the trigger (sigh). They did the same with Chaplin this year. Omier is a stud. Kalkbrenner is pretty consistent as well.
G-Chaplin
G-Scheierman
F-Omier
F-Bickerstaff
C-Kalkbrenner
6th-I. Jones
Fr-Haggerty
Total:
NOTE: They have some guys peaking at just the right time. Bickerstaff is alternately good or kind of disappears, but Jones could take his place as Jones is one of those who is ascending. As is their freshman, Haggerty…and, there may be no position that it is better to see someone ascending at than…freshman. If they had somebody better than Bickerstaff, they would be number one or two.
Virginia Gentlemen
The numbers and the names, to me, are scary good. It’s just that they haven’t had enough of their best guys consistently playing within one to two points of their averages all the time. However, besides the two studs, they also have a large collection of “mini-studs.”
G-X. Johnson
G-Carter
F-D. Jones
F-M. Cross
C-Bacot
6th-Ford
Fr-Wilborn
Total:
NOTE: Well, there have been some surprises with the players listed. Johnson is still one of the best guards not named Woolbright but has shown that he is mortal, as of late (but still a stud). On the other hand, although you would think that with his Providence teammate Hopkins out for the year that the remaining top scorer would see stacked defenses and struggle. On the contrary, Carter has upped his game. Great guard duo. Dillon Jones remains Dillon Jones, stud extraordinaire. Cross was injured, but, has returned and at 24.9 is a stud in every way except for not averaging 25.0. The UNC HC, Hubert Davis doesn’t seem to understand that if Bacot and not R.J. Davis had the ball more, UNC might not fall to any opponent. So, Bacot is still a force, but, an up and down one. Ford is the “X” factor. He can disappear, but can also go big. Evans wasn’t the freshman answer but to their GM’s credit he found Wilborn from St. Francis-PA, who is ascending like Carter. They definitely have the pieces.
Deep Valley Grouchos
Nobody is going to feel sorry for the DVG guard troubles. It’s a talented group, but, like most guards/guard groups, they can suddenly struggle. Focusing on the positive, they do lineup 3 studs.
G-Wells
G-Tyson
F-Pember
F-Broome
C-Soriano
6th-McCullar/Noel
Fr-Freeman
Total:
NOTE: Watch out for collegiate head coaches whose last names start with a “P.” As on the other teams, there has been and is, interesting drama with the lineup. While Broome does get a few more minutes now that Auburn is in conference play, HC Pearl still likes to play 10 guys, so, Broome has to be really efficient because there is no guarantee that he will get more than say, 25 minutes a game. He has been great, but there is that concern. Pember is not rebounding like he did last year but he is their “guy,” the one that can most be counted on to produce. Pitino doesn’t seem to understand that when Soriano is in and doesn’t get touches, they start losing as their poor shooting guards just jack it up. But, it’s also on Soriano, as he is not rebounding as well as last year despite being in the best shape of his life. Still really good but not consistently a stud despite his 27+ fppg. It’s a non, or, mini-stud, Shahada Wells, who often plays like a stud that will be the key for the Grouchos. They have been getting really good numbers from Noel & Broome of late, which they will need going forward.
The Orcas of the MML
Hoosiers
I don’t have to go back to tell you that this is the best lineup & the best roster the Hoosiers have ever had. By definition, just two studs, but a bunch of big game players. It’s the consistency of the players, seemingly any players, that are in the lineup each week that puts them in my top spot.
G-Dubar
G-Spencer
F-Mogbo
F-Daniels
C-Aimaq
6th-Ware
Fr-Mack
Total:
NOTE: Mogbo/Daniels/Aimaq is as scary a frontline as there is in fantasy basketball. Mogbo, because he is so efficient that he can pull 30+ at any time. Daniels is more erratic, but at 24.8 is a mini-stud and there may not be a more efficient center not named Edey/Dickinson than Aimaq who seemingly, can put together 23–25-point fantasy games out of thin air, looking at how, many of his first halves go. Dubar, who emerged practically out of thin air has seldom wavered this season (26+), while Spencer, surrounded by talent has actually had an easier time putting up good fantasy games at UConn than he did at Rutgers. Concerns? Two. While the guards have not been a problem, it would be the somewhat suspect position for the Hoosiers. The other would be at the freshman position, where they lost Allette-who was suspended for the rest of the season by ODU. Their top frosh is now Malik Mack, who is averaging over 20 fppg, but, has begun to stumble a little in conference play. Hence, just in case, they added Dukie frosh McCain as insurance. But the starters seldom take a serious dip and they have a deep bench. Not to jinx them but the Hoosiers are the favorite to make it to the championship game and then pop the cork. Remember that Orcas sit at the top of the food chain.
7 teams have separated from the pack since week 7, as you can see below:
Average weekly score for weeks 7-11 (total number of games played during those weeks in parentheses)
Hoosiers=328.6 (65)
Prozac Pups=317.0 (70)
DVG’s=313.8 (69)
KC Warthogs=306.4 (67)
NPFR=306.0 (67)
Virginia Gentlemen=306.0 (68)
Maize and Blue Blood=301.6 (68)
Now, look at their average points per game, derived from adding up the total number of points scored in weeks 7-11, and dividing that total by the number of games they played during those weeks.
Hoosiers: 1,643 points=25.2 over 65 games
KC Warthogs: 1,532 points=22.8 over 67 games
NPFR: 1,530 points=22.8 over 67 games
DVG’s: 1,569 points=22.7 over 69 games
Prozac Pups: 1,585 points=22.6 over 70 games
Virginia Gentlemen: 1,530 points=22.5 over 68 games
Maize and Blue Blood: 1,508 points=22.1 over 68 games
The Hoosiers have firepower, consistency, and they rebound the ball-that makes them the runaway top choice. The DVG’s do not rebound like they have in just about every year past but they have a lot of guys who can score-but consistency on the order of what the Hoosiers players do is a question. That’s ditto for the Virginia Gentlemen. The DVG’s & the VG’s are basically interchangeable as far as who has the better lineup. Behind them, although they have averaged considerably less over the same time period comes Maize and Blue Blood because of their consistency. They are like the tortoise in the fable about the tortoise and the hare. While other teams may have a couple of players put up a horrendous game or two, that is less likely to happen with MBB, which makes them more dangerous than their weekly average would indicate-as they are less likely to have any serious dips. A dip or two, yes, of course, but, not gigantic floparoos. And, that leaves KC, NPFR & Prozac. All of them are on the upswing. KC has had one stinker during that time but they have that “Edey factor” thing going for them-which gives them a darkhorse’s chance. NPFR has been the most consistent during that time, indicating they are peaking at the right time and are for real. During the last 3 weeks Prozac has been skyrocketing up, so, they are hot.
It’s going to be one heckuva tournament!