NCAA Playoff Time: Sweet 16 After The Fact

This is not a playoff preview like I did for the MML. I am taking a look at the first-round matchups and speculating into the future past the first round.

#1 South Austin Horns vs. #16 Gators

The much-maligned Gators (maligned by me I must add) did finally take steps to improve their roster. However, it was the old case of too little and too late. The Horns should easily prevail…but wait, not so fast. The Horns have some issues. I previously shared my concerns with Lipsey. He registered a 12 in his first game. Even worse, Kimani Hamilton went for a fiver. They have played two more games than the Gators and only have a 32-point advantage-hardly insurmountable. The Horns only have one game from Edey, so, conservatively, that’s 25+ that they will be able to lock in. Conversely, the Gators freshman Owen Freeman will only have one game. Unless there’s no other way around it, I don’t want to have a freshman with just one game in my playoff lineup. I too, own Freeman and he’s been great except when he gets in early foul trouble. Iowa is at Penn State-that too, scares me. Edey must not go off (no 33+) and Freeman must be respectable (minimum of 15) and even then, it may wind up being close but it looks like the Gators could be DOA and going to the leather goods factory after the first round.

Verdict: South Austin Horns move up to the Elite Eight.

#8 T-N-T vs. #9 Hog Wild

This shaped up as one of those great 8 vs. 9 matchups but T-N-T had what I call unbelievably bad luck (of course, it always seems to happen in a playoff game for some cosmic kind of reason) when the usually steady Sam Alexis registered a 3 ball. They could normally overcome that, but since their freshman Seydou Traore went for a 4 ball today (Sunday), it doesn’t look good for them. The only positive is that both should substantially improve in their 2nd round game. But Lendeborg hasn’t yet checked in for Hog Wild, and, while he’s capable of putting up a stinker, he’s more likely to put up a double-double, and, I don’t mean an In-N-Out double-double. Hog Wild got just 7 from Tainamo, who also figures to do much better in his 2nd game. Besides all of those facts/factors, Hog Wild is up 30 points. It would take a miracle of sorts for T-N-T to overcome all of that.

Verdict: Hog Wild moves up to the Elite Eight

#4 Fore Sons & A Doctor vs. #13 Yoder Dame Fighting Irish

Fore Sons definitely has the stronger roster, and ergo, the stronger lineup this week. All of Fore Sons players have had their first game and they are up 48 points over Yoder Dame, who has two games still to play. Caden Pierce had just one game this round and registered a 28, so that’s locked in for FSAD and is a huge factor going forward. Chaplin registered a so-so 19 but will have two more chances to better it-although he has not been as strong as he was about a month ago. Their freshman, Schwieger is on the rise and put up a first round 22-another plus. Not having Karaban available pushed Saxen into the starting lineup-their only soft spot. As for Yodel, er, Yoder, He is still waiting on games from Brown-Jones & Holmes, and, those games should be pretty damn good. I also           understand that he has a guard problem, but keeping McGlothan on the bench and playing Christian Ray in a first round matchup vs. superior forces is like surrendering before the first bullet has been fired, hoping to be shown mercy for not competing. Geesh!

Verdict: It’s too early to call with Brown-Jones & Holmes still not on the board for their first-round games but it’s leaning to Fore Sons & A Doctor         

#5 Pirate’s Raiders vs. #12 Tribe

How does a group of people who call themselves simply “Tribe,” instead of “The Tribe” hope to do well against Pirates? Yet, I have to say that Tribe has acquitted themselves well thus far. That being said, PR has put up 179 in their seven first round games and it will be difficult for Tribe to keep putting up comparable numbers. PR has room for improvement numbers-wise from both Stevens & Hall and a probable tumble down in numbers for Young, Brooks, and, Aimaq. Those players should cancel themselves out a little, probably on the downside, but it shouldn’t be serious enough to make a dent that seriously hurts PR’s current number. Brown, Shumate, and, the freshman Rice figure to take a dip for Tribe with no real meaningful upside for the other players. In 6 games Tribe has tallied 151 which is nothing to sneeze at but whether they go up or down a little, PR should not dip below 165. It’s a good performance from Tribe, but, without the benefit of “The Tribe,” as previously noted, they can’t get it done.

Verdict: Pirate’s Raiders move up to the Elite Eight

#2 Albuquerque Chickenhawks vs. #15 The Walk Ons

Similar to Pirate’s Raiders vs. Tribe, I must salute The Walk Ons, who are valiantly fighting the good fight vs. AC. Both teams have completed their first round of games and AC is up just 17 points. TWO also has Danny Wolf locked in with 34.0 at one forward position which is a tremendous score to have locked in. And Omier figures to do better in his 2nd game. On the downside Anderson doesn’t figure to do much more. Omoruyi, who never gets the ball, also figures to drop from his first round 29, Darrion Williams is efficient but also doesn’t get shots and should drop or stay about the same-and, what are Williams & Anderson doing in the lineup? Williams has to be super-efficient to tally decent (and just decent at that) fantasy points, his season average going in at 16.9 fppg. Anderson was 16.0 fppg. Are The Walk Ons tanking? Do they have a bet on themselves to lose on FanDuel? Post, Kolek, and, even Felton are/were much better choices than either Anderson or Williams. Missi, like Omoruyi also has to be really good at collecting the garbage to get points, so, he could do better, the same or worse. In other words, while the numbers would suggest otherwise, I don’t really think that The Walk Ons overachieved as much as they have hit the ceiling and once you hit the ceiling you start to come down. On the other hand, AC actually has room to improve. Filipowski put up a pedestrian 18. Ndongo’s 9 may be his lowest total since December-as he has been closer to 20. Maybe Timberlake drops, but it doesn’t matter. It was a nice try but TWO will simply have to walk on back to the drawing board.

Verdict: Albuquerque Chickenhawks move up to the Elite Eight

#7 Independent George vs. #10 Boeheim’s Army

BA could possibly make history if they could win this matchup with first round scores that include -1, 0, and, 9 from Zapala, Mullen, and, Ellis, respectively. Of course, all three of those scores are “freaks,” way below the norm for those guys, but it happened. He should get a nice boost from all three in their 2nd games but how much of one is the question. IG isn’t exactly rolling along. They had a 5 from Carlson and a 16 from Achor Achor, who has been more of an Actor Actor trying to fool everyone (myself included) into thinking that he’s a strong fantasy player. But the other players have scored sustainable numbers and they still are waiting on freshman Toppin, an elite frosh to check in.

Verdict: Still up in the air, leaning towards IG, but, not by as much as you may think. Too bad BA couldn’t manage to find a decent center-they only had since October to do so…

#3 Leathernecks vs. #14 The Prodigal Son

This matchup just shows why you can never, ever, have just one freshman on the roster. That one freshman, in essence, holds the entire team hostage. Well, The Prodigal Son added who they thought was a strong freshman. Since they picked up Evans, his role changed and he is now a horrible fantasy freshman. But, if they had another, they might not be in the position they find themselves in. Evans had a big 3 ball his first time out. And, they have Humpoorus, er, Humrichous, who put up 7. Add in some bad luck (Ledee went for just 18) and you have the anatomy of a loser. Or, in my parlance, an “ell-er” for “L,” or, loser. PS has one first round game left and has a total of 95 vs. Leathernecks 174. PS needs to find out why they are obviously not the Prodigal Son. Maybe they were not pious enough in terms of their devotion to not just the game of fantasy basketball but all the scouting and planning that goes into it. Since they only have two players on the roster who can play, the evidence points that way-they need to hire a new GM.

Verdict: Leathernecks move up to the Elite Eight

#6 The Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion vs. #11 Cal Bears

Right now, GOPP looks pretty comfortable with a first round total of 168. That’s a very interesting 168 as they arrived at that total with a 3, an, 8, and, a 56! That 56 is going to go down to maybe a 40 or so after Pember’s 2nd game, but Soriano & Trey Mitchell both figure to move up from the aforementioned single digits they put up. I don’t think they can move the needle enough to keep GOPP at 168, especially since the freshman Dillingham is going to take a steep fall from his 39, so, let’s just say that they should still be somewhere from 150-155 at a minimum. Cal has had 6 first round games thus far and has 124. A respectable number for 6 games but their two highest scores are going to go down and they will not get enough from the other players whose scores could rise to make it happen for them. If Oduro puts up about 25 it could be interesting though. And, I have a question for the Cal Bears: Why, why, why would you play Wade Taylor over Ryan Kalkbrenner?! Regardless of whether Kalkbrenner just has one game, regardless of opponent, regardless of his having to play on the road, regardless of how he’s been doing of late…it’s Wade fricking Taylor! You can’t play him over Kalkbrenner!%$#%#%^#*(#)#)(@$#!!!!

Verdict: Two, yes, two huge numbers that will go down…a lot, make this too close to call although the numbers do lean toward The Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion moving on.