#1 Deep Valley Grouchos vs. #8 KC Warthogs
While the DVG’s have advanced, they have an alarming trend going of late: In the last 4 weeks, including the Sweet 16 they have had 7 single-digit games, 10 games of 10-14 points, and 7 games of 15-19 points. 15-19 is not so bad, but, having had 17 games of 0-14 points per player per game out of 55 total games played equals out to 23%. I don’t think that they can outpoint the better teams they are going to see when 23% of their games are 0-14 points per game. That also means they have been getting some big games, but can they continue to count on that as well? As for the Warthogs, they have few warts these days. They have the edge at center and the freshman position over the DVG’s. As you know, or, as you should know by now, I am serious about the “Edey factor.” Edey had just one game in the first round and wound up with 28. That would be marvelous for the DVG’s but I expect he will be 30+. The forward positions are close, could go either way, which leaves the guard slots. The DVG’s will trout out Kadary Richmond for the first time since they acquired him, due to first an injury, and, then to see how he looked post-injury. What to look for: How close Broome can stay with Edey in scoring, if Freeman can stay competitively close to Buchanan at the frosh slot, if the DVG forwards can outpoint KC’s. The guard position could be the decider in this match.
Rated: TOSSUP
#4 Maize and Blue Bloods vs. #12 Sam Jacobson Went To Class
This is a test of the consistency of MBB vs. the Sammies who sometimes lead a charmed life. For MBB, seeing Bickerstaff in their starting lineup makes me nervous. Statistically, he has had a good season but when he has a stinker, it can be pretty bad. Chaplin has been dipping of late. They did not play their steadiest player, Scheierman, this week, since he had just one game. They did play his teammate, Kalkbrenner because he was at center. Gillespie was great, probably had his best fantasy week in the first round. So, no doubt that Scheierman will be back in the lineup and that makes a huge difference for the MBB. What about the Sam’s? They don’t really have a lot of lineup options. Having spent for a freshman that I knew couldn’t produce and ditto for a transfer, they have no depth and are stuck with having two players in the starting lineup who average less than 18 fppg. They have received a boost from the blossoming of Robbie Avila at center-who just may be the top fantasy basketball center returning next year. Pierce has been a rebounding beast at forward. Timberlake has been strong at guard. Sheppard has been a great freshman and Pepper is good at another guard spot. But that is it. They have 5 who can play and two who sometimes hit bingo for a night. MMB has 7+a freshman who as of late has matched or bettered Sheppard in Haggerty. They largely advanced due to the fact that DaRon Holmes (Prozac Pups) picked the first round of the playoffs to average just 10.5. Since his overall fantasy average for the season going in was 26.3 & having Dixon going for 12.0 instead of his seasonal average of 21.0 completed the happy birthday gift to the Sams-although I would say that the Sams still earned it with their top two scorers for the week scoring more than Woolbright-that’s putting work in.
RATED: Edge to MBB
#2 Hoosiers vs. #7 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
The Psychos put up a good fight and almost got it done but fell short when two Mountain West players didn’t perform as expected in their last two games-which is why I like Mountain West players in November/December but not so much come January. NPFR has a really good team and a really good lineup but they still have a guard problem. Not that they don’t have any good guards but Mayo has been a little less than advertised and his one game vs. the Psychos almost did NPFR in. That leaves Milicic or Lipsey. The 2024 version of Lipsey has not been as good as the November/December 2023 version. Milici is probably the steadiest of the three but NPFR will need one of the three to score above his seasonal average and the other to equal his average or they have little to no chance-and that’s being conservative, of beating the Hoosiers.
RATED: Hoosiers advancing
#3 Virginia Gentlemen vs. #6 House of Sparky
In scoring 157.5 in their first-round win, House of Sparky (HOS) may have hit their ceiling, or damn near close. That means that they will have to rely on poor performances from some VG players to pull off the upset, which, despite their #6 seed would be huge. HOS has 3 guys who are, or, can be heavy hitters in Thomas, Lendeborg and Freeman. Thomas can be great or lousy, seldom in between while Lendeborg has been very good when not in foul trouble and Freeman is a stud on the Woolbright level who never seems to get stopped or slowed. But, that’s pretty much it. Tre Mitchell’s status is in doubt and they need him to be available and at his best to have just a shot, IMHO. VG? Glad you asked. The lowest scoring player in their top 6 scorers is Bacot at 23.6 and now that Hubert Davis had a “come to Jesus” moment, Bacot is seeing the ball more-a lot more. HOS only has 1 player scoring more than Bacot. That’s a huge disparity and it would take a cosmic incident to be able to overcome that. And, BTW, VG outscored the Hoosiers this week 192.0 to 174.0…BOOM BABY!
RATED: VG advancing
I want to remind everybody that the numbers never lie. Looking at the adjusted numbers below (they now include the Sweet 16 week), only one of the top 7 teams in terms of team average & average score per game has been eliminated. NOTE: I personally prefer the points per game average below as far as an indicator of what’s most likely to happen. Average weekly score for weeks 7-Sweet 16 (total number of games played during those weeks in parentheses). Eliminated teams in parentheses.
Hoosiers=328.3 (78)
Prozac Pups=317.0 (70)
Virginia Gentlemen=315.5 (81)
DVG’s=314.5 (83)
NPFR=301.1 (79)
Maize and Blue Blood=296.8 (82)
KC Warthogs=289.1 (76)
Now, look at their average points per game, derived from adding up the total number of points scored in weeks 7-Sweet 16, and dividing that total by the number of games they played during those weeks.
Hoosiers: 1,975 points=25.3 over 78 games
Virginia Gentlemen: 1,893 points=23.0 over 81 games
KC Warthogs: 1,735 points=22.8 over 76 games
NPFR: 1,807 points=22.8 over 79 games
DVG’s: 1,886 points=22.7 over 83 games
Prozac Pups: 1,585 points=22.6 over 70 games
Maize and Blue Blood: 1,781 points=21.7 over 82 games