I’ve never bothered to really look at the Big 64. I am consumed by my own league, the MML, and I do like looking at the NCAA which I generally consider to be the toughest league. I can’t make a really thorough analysis as I have not tracked two of the teams but I do have stats, what our game is based on, and I know all the players.
#3 South Austin Horns (NCAA) vs. #3 Virginia Gentlemen (MML)
The South Austin Horns have had a really good season, since they won their NCAA division, which, again, in general, I consider to be the best division in all the four leagues, year after year with rare exception. So, they’re legit. But I feel that they are out-gunned and will have to rely on the Virginia Gentlemen getting some sub-par performances to advance to the final. Every lineup has question marks and even at this stage, the Final Four, some are bigger than others. For SAH, while they do have what I call the “Edey factor” (Edey almost always counts for 1.5 players and sometimes 2-3), they have more concerns than the VG’s going in. While they are starting their best lineup, pretty much everybody except for Edey is capable of some lows that they can’t afford to have shown up in this particular matchup. Kevin Cross & Igohodaro have performed better than I thought they would, but because Cross is not a premier rebounder (must average at least 8 at a forward position) he does occasionally dip if his scoring isn’t up to par. Ighodaro does not usually see a lot of fga’s but is a very efficient finisher, but, also a sub-par (for his position) rebounder. That isn’t to say I expect to see a single digit game from either of them, but 15-20 is a decent possibility. I happen to love DeVries but he’s also not a bellwether of consistency. That leaves the two biggest question marks in Hamilton and Lee. I love both of them but Hamilton plays on a team with balanced scoring and again, is a sub-par rebounder for his position while Ivy League guys having to maintain their averages in Ivy League play worry me, based on the history. They are all good and using a baseball analogy, Cross, DeVries, and, Hamilton in particular, can go off-they just can’t afford to hit a homer (hit a few early) and then strikeout (keep shooting and missing and not rebounding). They need to be good contact hitters, who, if they see a pitch, they think they can crush (if they are hot), then go for it (take a lot of FGAs if hot). In other words, it’s way more important for SAH’s lineup to play to their averages as Edey getting his 30, 30+ will prop up an 18, a 20, a 22, etc., etc. But, asking him to carry a 10, a 12, etc., etc., will of course, negate his effectiveness. For some reason, I cannot think of anything to connote the firepower of the VG’s lineup like a baseball term applied to the 1927 Yankees…Murderer’s Row. Now, statistically, the SAH lineup averaged 172.5 while VG’s lineup averaged 167.0, but there are four home run hitters in the VG lineup compared to one for SAH. Dillon Jones, Bacot, Matt Cross, and, Johnson have all gone big many times. Of these four, since the UNC head coach has no idea of how to truly utilize Bacot to make his team extraordinary, Bacot is the most likely of these four to have a sub-par and/or so-so game. But besides the above, rebounding, above all else, is king when it comes to sustaining the elite teams and VG is a much better rebounding team than SAH. SAH has only 2 players that average better than 8 rebounds per game and one of them is not in the lineup. VG has five players averaging 8 or better.
EDGE: Advantage goes to the Virginia Gentlemen but it would not be an upset in any way if the South Austin Horns were able to prevail. However, it would likely take an unusually poor week by the VG’s for that to happen unless the SAH players can out-perform their numbers-which is also possible.
#1 Strokin 3’s (IBL) vs. #5 Bean Counters (FCBL4)
Okey-dokey, two teams I know nothing about. What do we have here? Well, to me it appears that there is a definite favorite and that would be the Strokin 3’s (why do they not have an apostrophe after Strokin?). Not only do they have Edey (see analysis above for the “Edey factor”) but they have Riley Minix. Conservatively, just having those two makes them 75% better than any other team. Then, add in Kalkbrenner (good and steady), Brown-Jones (an occasional dip here and there but can go big), and, Ndongo at the frosh slot, not to mention DeVries and Ledee, well…to me, they are the favorite to take the who dang thing, not just this game. The Cinderella Bean Counters have managed to make it this far…but, they have a lot of question marks. They are playing Derkack, for one, and, even worse, he only has one game. If Derkack has anything below 20 (which doesn’t really help them anyway) they are dead, done, finished…when just the bones are left save them for making stock. I too, have Broome on my team and he’s been pretty damn good. But he still isn’t likely to get more than 28 minutes a game in Auburn’s system and he has two conference road games this week with one being at Tennessee and Rick Barnes is a great defensive coach who will scheme to do everything he can to slow down Broome. So, I don’t expect Broome to hit his season average this week. Dion Brown, Dillon Jones, Bacot are their three top players and all should do well (unless Bacot has to go against Virginia). Ike has not been Wyoming good but he has been fine and Missi, like his name, can be hit and miss, but, likewise, is usually fine. Their lineup averages 158.7, which is surprisingly low for a team that gets this far in the tourney. The Strokin 3’s lineup averages 181.1. That’s a huge discrepancy. It would be more than unusual for a team putting out a lineup averaging more than 20 fewer points per game to be able to overcome that. The one (and pretty much only) hope for the BC’s is that Minix, Edey, and, Ndongo, who all have just one game, have sub-par games. Say, 15-20 for Minix, 23-26 for Edey and 10-15 for Ndongo while having their best players out-perform their usual numbers and the spear carries just getting their averages.
EDGE: Strokin 3’s win this one going away. They should be able to rest their starters for the final.