A spread of +5.0 is the bottom line most of the time (there are no absolutes in fantasy basketball) to give a team a better than average chance of winning. The funny thing is, that in addition to the lower spreads being a super strong indicator of roster/lineup weakness, too good of a spread (as we get north of 7.0) indicates the lack of players who can score points and rely on efficiency (high fg pct. & low turnover rate), rebounds, assists, steals, etc., etc., to get their points. While it results in a great spread number it usually results in not being able to score enough points to win vs. a strong team that will have multiple scorers. Games vs. non-DI opponents skew the results some, but, basically, if you are averaging 5+ in the spread department, you not only had a good week but it’s likely closer to a team’s true make-up. A team with a very low spread (under 4.0) that has a winning and/or undefeated week achieved it vs. weak opposition and that is also not sustainable.
Spread differential in order of highest per player average to lowest (W-L record shown for the week).
7.0 or better
Hoosiers
Week 2: 2-1>: +110=7.85
Week 1: 0-3>: +85=6.53
Comment: I can’t tell you how many times I’ve added a player who turns out to be good but fricking sucks his first time in the lineup. That was their experience with Tyler Dunn. Mgbako went back to being Mgbako. Good week for Fleming, who looks like he’s starting to be more assertive offensively.
Positive add: Max Shulga, a stat-stuffer should improve their backcourt.
6.0 or better
North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
Week 2: 2-1>: +110=6.87
Week 1: 1-2>: +49=4.08
Comment: Too much Mayo is no good for you & neither was his 9.5 fppg. The highly efficient Milicic is proving to be a “stat-stuffer” and is performing much better than I expected from him at his new school, Tennessee.
Virginia Gentlemen
Week 2: 1-2>: +77=6.41
Week 1: 0-3>: +32=2.9
Comment: Difficult to win with two frosh in the lineup. I really like Cofie but his 4.5 fppg average for the week killed them. As does the continued presence of Jonnivius Smith in the lineup at center. Banks & Leggett made splashy debuts.
Hillbilly Maulers
Week 2: 2-1: +86=6.14
Week 1: 3-0: +56=4.0
Comment: Well hello Chaz Lanier. 21 fppg isn’t great but it beats his prior anemic efforts. Good week for Beagle. They are living solely off the spread (pesto, olive tapenade, garlic aioli?) and the kindness of the schedule. They need to make some moves.
5.0 or better
Maize and Blue Bloods
Week 2: 2-1>: +107=5.94
Week 1: 3-0>: +90=6.0
Comment: They had 18 games and totaled 333 points. 20 per man would have been 360. 21 per man would have been 378. 22 per man would have been 396 and 23 per man would have been 414. They are capable of putting up that 23 per man and more with their best 7…chew on that stat…
Prozac Pups
Week 2: 3-0>: +93=5.81
Week 1: 1-2>: +51=4.25
Comment: Is there something about Murrell they love? Couldn’t be that 14.5 fppg.
Saluki YRD’s
Week 2: 0-3>: +68=5.66
Week 1: 2-1>: +61=5.01
Comment: Tough to not go 0-3 when Ajayi gets 4.0 fppg for the week. Bittle has finally arrived and looking at how Oregon’s shots are being distributed, he should be consistently good and probably a stud (25+fppg)
4.0 or better
Gator Bait
Week 2: 2-1>: +79=4.81
Week 1: 2-1>: +78=6.0
Comment: Addition of frosh Josh Harris went well (24 fppg), as did Coles (24 fppg). Not a fan of Will Pruitt being a starting guard. They need to do some Xmas shopping before there’s no more bargains to be had.
Deep Valley Grouchos
Week 2: 3-0>: +80=4.7
Week 1: 3-0>: +85=6.07
Comment: Noel playing at a stud level, which is probably sustainable since he is now the man for his team. Addition of Cluff provided an instant dividend of 25.5 fppg for the week. Richmond really struggling right now. DVG’s added g/f Lawson, a stat-stuffer, to continue to do what he has.
KC Warthogs
Week 2: 0-3>: +59=4.53
Week 1: 2-1>: +55=3.92
Comment: Spread up, performance down. 12 fppg from Danny Wolf-ouch! 14.5 from Freeman who is fantasy toast after transferring to ASU. Need more from Xavian Lee. They are still trying to find out their best lineup.
Vindaloos
Week 2: 1-2>: +61=4.36
Week 1: 0-3>: +62=4.42
Comment: Marcus Burton just had a fantasy week that he will probably never approach again unless he can keep shooting 55% from the field, 91% from the line, 46% from the arc, get 5 rebounds per game and have an assist to turnover ratio of 4-1…enjoy it. They went against the odds in taking two frosh from the same team, and on top of that, putting them in the lineup at the same time. Good luck with that.
House of Sparky
Week 2: 3-0>: +74=4.35
Week 1: 1-2>: +76=5.06
Comment: They got immediate results from Anthony Roy, a great add at guard and McGlockton is getting back to who he really is. I’m not a big fan of juco guys transferring in and making a strong positive impact in their first year of DI. Meet Amar Augillard-Fresno State, who went for 2.5 fppg last week-that is not a typo…and, then there’s…Filewich…
3.0 or better
Psychos
Week 2: 0-3>: +58=3.86
Week 1: 3-0>: +38=2.37
What I said after week one: “They will need to see spread improvement to at least a minimum of 4.0 when they face stronger opponents.” They did not and instead of having what could have been a 2-1 week, got bageled. Lakhin & Cohen are killing…the Psychos. Jamar Brown’s shooting was off a little but he’s doing more of everything else and looks set to have an outstanding fantasy season.
Sam Jacobson Went To Class
Week 2: 1-2>: +46=3.53
Week 1: 1-2>: +41=3.72
Comment: 13.0 fppg for the Eaglestaff…just sayin’…at least the freshmen are balling.
On Oxygen
The Hoop Guru
Week 2: 1-2>: +33=2.2
Week 1: 2-1>: +48=3.69
Comment: R.J. Felton has the green light and has gone from a good but erratic fantasy player to a real force. Garcia continues to be solid. Looking at how UNC is sharing the ball this year, R.J. Davis may not be one of The Hoop Guru’s top guards too much longer…
Hardwood Heroes
Week 2: 1-2>: +37=2.05
Week 1: 0-3>: +28=2.54
Comment: I thought they were too quick on the trigger in adding Todorovic, whose history did not support his early start just prior to them adding him. Mostafa a good add.
Summary: Fairly good week for most teams. Scoring was up, spreads were up-again showing that at least 80% of the time they are “co-dependents.” I like those odds.