Week #6, December 14-20
NOTE: We’ve gone 6 weeks and the spreads are starting to show us more. A little more analysis this week.
Spread differential in order of highest per player average to lowest (W-L record shown for the week), plus 6 week, weekly spread average (determined by dividing the total number of positive spread points scored over 6 weeks by the total number of games played over 6 weeks).
6 week spread averages in order of highest to lowest (total games played in parentheses)
Maize and Blue Bloods (86) 6 week spread average=6.7
Hoosiers (76) 6 week spread average=5.9
Deep Valley Grouchos (87) 6 week spread average=5.8
Virginia Gentlemen (83) 6 week spread average=5.7
North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer (82) 6 week spread average=5.6
House of Sparky (76) 6 week spread average=5.2
Gator Bait (78) 6 week spread average=5.1
Saluki YRD’s (64) 6 week spread average=4.8
KC Warthogs (77) 6 week spread average=4.5
Hillbilly Maulers (80) 6 week spread average=4.3
Psychos (82) 6 week spread average=4.1
The Hoop Guru (72) 6 week spread average=4.0
Hardwood Heroes (80) 6 week spread average=3.4
Prozac Pups (77) 6 week spread average=3.4
Vindaloos (77) 6 week spread average=3.0
Sam Jacobson Went To Class (76) 6 week spread average=2.4
So, what can we infer from the above? First, that MBB & the DVG’s have the best win-loss records and score more points than anybody, but also, that they are doing it in slightly different ways. When you look at the “team page” for the DVG’s you will a lot of incredibly great spreads. However, that is for all games played. For the games that players have been active (in the weekly lineup) the DVG’s have benefitted from the best fg pct., shooting in the league. Historically, they are usually one of the bottom 4-6 teams in the league in field goal percentage. So, that means that while their spread average is good, very good on paper, they are actually benefitting more from their efficiency at shooting along with rebounding. As an aside, per usual, they are leading the league in turnovers-but that is being negated by the high percentage shooting. Conversely, while MBB is shooting the ball well, they are leading the league in spread average and only twice have they dipped under 6.0. Long term I would always rather have consistent spread average because players are real and shooting percentages can take a significant dip, even if it only happens a couple of times-and, what if that is during the playoffs.
Despite their current 7-11 record, the spread bodes well for the future for the Hoosiers, who, in what has been a very low-scoring fantasy season thus far, actually find themselves in a group of 4 teams that have scored significantly less points than either MBB or the DVG’s but that spread means that they should see an increase in their scoring going forward. Ditto for VG which sits in the same division (Driesell) as the Hoosiers and is one of those 4 teams that looks poised to see an increase in scoring. The 4th highest scoring team in the MML also sits in that division as is the only team in the league to average at least 260 fppg, outside of the top two teams and that is The North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer (NPFR) which is possibly/probably (haven’t done the 8 week league analysis, obviously) the team best situated to make some kind of post-season run outside of MMB & DVG. The spreads are keeping HOS & Gator Bait competitive and capable of making a run.
Now, we get into the teams that have a spread average under 5.0. Remember that the YRD’s have only had 64 games which has put them at a tremendous disadvantage under the “points” format of weekly play. Do note that they are carrying a respectable (not great-especially for the better teams they will have to face) 4.8 which makes them a “spoiler” and maybe a “darkhorse” of sorts. KC is another interesting/possibly dangerous team as the sport the last truly decent spread at 4.5 and have shown they have the capability to score more than they have-meaning they will be stronger in playoff mode where player averages are used than during the regular season format. The Hillbilly Maulers have made some moves and those moves are starting to show, meaning that they too will fare better under the playoff format.
Below these teams come the Psychos who need to have at least 5 of their guys maxing out their averages in order to have a shot at beating one of the stronger teams. Hoop Guru got a nice boost from Rataj but now Felton is struggling. They don’t have enough good scorers to do the old two step dance of one foot forward, one foot back. Some good names but I think their lineup has kind of flattened out some.
Anything interesting/positive in the 3’s? Well, apparently Freemantle is down again (I don’t have details) and a few of their vets are not having good seasons. When the most positive developments concern the freshmen, you’re in trouble. Now, Prozac has a roster that could actually work out to be something far, far greater than it has been so far. Raynaud, Dixon, and, Barnhizer are pretty much who they are every time out. They don’t have a freshman problem. So, what about the other 3 spots? Well, they have two pretty good players who have been erratic. And, when Toppin (another huge stud) returns to action in probably another week plus or so, their whole prospectus changes and they should be the 3rd most dangerous team in the league.
As for the Vindaloos and Sammy, well, for this season neither team has a future. They just don’t have the horses.
8.0 or better
Virginia Gentlemen:
Week 6: 3-0>: +126=8.4
Week 5: 0-3>: +50=4.16
Week 4: 3-0>: +106=7.06
Week 3: 2-1>: +86=4.7
Week 2: 1-2>: +77=6.41
Week 1: 0-3>: +32=2.9
Comment: Did I jinx them by being positive the last few weeks? No, it was personnel. Scully wasn’t available so they started Mulder. Smith was Smith. Johnson was in the lineup…a lot of “ouchies.”
Hoosiers
Week 6: 0-3>: +76=8.4
Week 5: 2-1>: +55=4.2
Week 4: 1-2>: +54=4.9
Week 3: 2-1>: +75=4.68
Week 2: 2-1>: +110=7.85
Week 1: 0-3>: +85=6.53
Comment: Hoosiers mired in a 3 week downward slump, going for 215, 208, and, 206.
7.0 or better
North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer
Week 6: 2-1>: +88=7.3
Week 5: 3-0>: +103=9.3
Week 4: 2-1>: +61=4.35
Week 3: 1-2>: +52=3.05
Week 2: 2-1>: +110=6.87
Week 1: 1-2>: +49=4.08
Comment: 9.3 isn’t who they are. Big performances from their top 3 in what was a lineup that they won’t be using much down the road. I do expect them to continue to have spreads north of 5.0 however.
Maize and Blue Bloods
Week 6: 3-0>: +92=7.07
Week 5: 2-1>: +64=5.8
Week 4: 3-0>: +93=8.4
Week 3: 3-0>: +137=7.61
Week 2: 2-1>: +107=5.94
Week 1: 3-0>: +90=6.0
Comment: Interesting that the only two times they have had a weekly spread less than 6.0 resulted in their only two losses.
6.0 or better
House of Sparky
Week 6: 1-2>: +62=6.2
Week 5: 1-2>: +47=4.7
Week 4: 3-0>: +86=7.8
Week 3: 2-1>: +53=4.07
Week 2: 3-0>: +74=4.35
Week 1: 1-2>: +76=5.06
Comment: While not highly touted, Towt has been a major addition. McGlockton is toast.
4.0 or better
Deep Valley Grouchos:
Week 6: 3-0>: +69=4.9
Week 5: 3-0>: +69=4.9
Week 4: 2-1>: +50=5.0
Week 3: 3-0>: +157=8.72
Week 2: 3-0>: +80=4.7
Week 1: 3-0>: +85=6.07
Comment: Despite 3-0 record for the week, the DVG’s had a horrible, horrible week by their standards with two games of less than 10 fantasy points, and another 7 games coming in at under 20 fantasy points, or, they only got 20+ fantasy points in 5 out of their 14 games. At least Noel got into the holiday spirit (“Noel, Noel, la, la, la, la, la, la”).
Psychos
Week 6: 1-2>: +68=4.8
Week 5: 3-0>: +52=5.2
Week 4: 0-3>: +86=8.6
Week 3: 0-3>: +37=2.18
Week 2: 0-3>: +58=3.86
Week 1: 3-0>: +38=2.37
Comment: They continue to be all or nothing gamblers, as they have gone either 3-0 or 0-3 each week thus far. Spread came down but it’s in the range they want to be in and they did it with Crowl in the lineup.
Gator Bait
Week 6: 2-1>: +60=4.28
Week 5: 1-2>: +59=6.5
Week 4: 2-1>: +59=4.5
Week 3: 0-3>: +61=4.68
Week 2: 2-1>: +79=4.81
Week 1: 2-1>: +78=6.0
Comment: Record doesn’t indicate it because they only played 9 games but best spread week yet portends well going forward.
The Hoop Guru
Week 6: 1-2>: +42=4.2
Week 5: 0-3>: +45=5.6
Week 4: 1-2>: +46=4.18
Week 3: 1-2>: +76=5.06
Week 2: 1-2>: +33=2.2
Week 1: 2-1>: +48=3.69
Comment: Too small a sample of games to detect a real trend here.
3.0 or better
Sam Jacobson Went To Class
Week 6: 2-1>: +50=3.57
Week 5: 0-3>: “-12=-0.1”
Week 4: 0-3>: +33=3.6
Week 3: 1-2>: +24=1.3
Week 2: 1-2>: +46=3.53
Week 1: 1-2>: +41=3.72
Comment: I’m sure there have been teams that had a negative weekly spread before, but, this is the abyss for them. No more Eaglestaff please!
Hardwood Heroes
Week 6: 3-0>: +40=3.07
Week 5: 1-2>: +67=6.09
Week 4: 3-0>: +40=3.3
Week 3: 1-2>: +63=4.2
Week 2: 1-2>: +37=2.05
Week 1: 0-3>: +28=2.54
Comment: Xmas scheduling gift as they played against 3 weak sisters. That won’t happen again…although outside of one really good week (6.09) they only have one week where they even managed a 4.) or better spread. They are what they are, to paraphrase former head coach Dennis Green (NFL head coach).
2.0 or better
KC Warthogs
Week 6: 0-3>: +31=2.58
Week 5: 2-1>: +72=6.0
Week 4: 1-2>: +51=6.37
Week 3: 3-0>: +80=4.4
Week 2: 0-3>: +59=4.53
Week 1: 2-1>: +55=3.92
Comment: Like whale watching down in Baja, there was a Xavian Lee sighting! Alas, Pyke apparently needs to be sent down the pike. Buchanan continues to be up and down. However, despite all the above, notice two consecutive weeks at 6.0 or higher…
Saluki YRD’s
Week 6: 1-2>: +21=2.3
Week 5: 0-3>: +45=5.6
Week 4: 0-3>: +11=1.2
Week 3: 2-1>: +104=7.4
Week 2: 0-3>: +68=5.66
Week 1: 2-1>: +61=5.01
Comment: Like a supernova, Kevin Miller flashed really bright and has since burned out. Poor lineup. Only Bittle came to play.
Hillbilly Maulers
Week 6: 2-1>: +32=2.28
Week 5: 3-0>: +71=7.1
Week 4: 1-2>: +44=3.14
Week 3: 0-3>: +59=4.2
Week 2: 2-1: +86=6.14
Week 1: 3-0: +56=4.0
Comment: Big week for Terrence Brown. Hillbillies are probably enjoying some moonshine as it appears that Tyrel Morgan could be a steady help.
Vindaloos
Week 6: 0-3>: +23=2.09
Week 5: 1-2>: +35=3.5
Week 4: 0-3>: +17=1.3
Week 3: 0-3>: +35=2.18
Week 2: 1-2>: +61=4.36
Week 1: 0-3>: +62=4.42
Comment: Meinarts in the lineup?! Wow! Commish needs to look into that. It appears they may be “tanking” early in concerted effort to get #1 drafting position in 2025…
Prozac Pups
Week 6: 0-3>: +1=0.11
Week 5: 2-1>: +33=3.0
Week 4: 2-1>: +33=3.0
Week 3: 3-0>: +54=3.0
Week 2: 3-0>: +93=5.81
Week 1: 1-2>: +51=4.25
Comment: Hey mad scientist GM! Stop experimenting with Martinez and Ivisic in the lineup. It’s a bad mix man! Dixon continues to kill it.