The NCAA After Eight Weeks
As seems to be the case in all leagues, not only is scoring down but the “gaps” between team scoring averages are severe, to say the least. While the Albuquerque Chicken Hawks are averaging 312+ fppg, there is not even one other team that is averaging 270! 7 teams are averaging under 240 fppg! Trends are forming…
Wooden Conference
Haskins Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
As usual, the Haskins is uber-competitive. While the ‘Horns have by far the best record, their team scoring average is not the best in the division which has strong implications come playoff time. And, they were averaging 292.75 at the 4-week review…
1. South Austin Horns: 20-4 (3-0), 267.38
Well, a 25-fantasy point per game slippage is something to be concerned about. The scheduling Gods have smiled on them so far (see the record) but they are on a downward slope and have no “heavy hitters” in the lineup that can bail them out. They have a good freshman and two good guards, most rosters lack one or both, so that’s good. Their problems remain with the forwards. Kaluma seems to have stepped up his role as “the man” for Texas but how consistent he can be is still a question mark. Good guard depth, weakness at the forward slots, ho-hum centers…a good team but not one that is built to go deep in the playoffs, IMHO.
2. T-N-T Youngsters 14-10 (2-1), 267.50
What I said at the 4-week mark: “They actually have a little more firepower than the Horn dogs but due to scheduling & other reasons it hasn’t shown up yet.” Well, in a way it has since the Horns have dropped down and the Youngsters have some high rollers in their lineup. They’ve used all their moves so the roster is set. They are strong at frosh and center-actually stronger than the Horns. They’ve bolstered their forward group. So, it will be guards that will determine their fate, as in McLaughlin & Teel specifically, although Taylor could be an option. Playoff-wise I like their ability to go deeper than the Horns
3. Fore Sons & A Doctor 14-10 (1-2), 256.13
I still believe (the numbers don’t lie) that they have the best lineup in this division, and, more importantly are the team that has the best chance to go the farthest come playoff time.
At 22.6, Karaban is their lowest scoring starter. That’s impressive. Center? Check. Forward? Check. Guard? Check. Freshman? Check. They do not have a single lineup hole. They do have questionable depth, including the fact that they do not have another freshman on the roster in case of injury (and Jakucionus did just sustain an injury that sidelined him), so that is the only concern.
4. The Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion: 11-13 (0-3), 237.50
While they are 8-4 since the 4 weeks mark I do not think it’s sustainable as they simply do not have enough firepower unless Luis, Sandfort, Kaufman-Renn & Coles up their game. Luis is erratic. Sandfort has been in another massive shooting slump (like last year) but appears to be pulling out and is the most likely of the four to make an impact moving forward. Kaufman-Renn has nice numbers but his lack of rebounding prowess is keeping those numbers from being what they easily could be while Cole is an enigma.
Knight Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
This division has two teams with promise but serious concerns at the guard position could keep that from being realized.
1. Hog Wild: 11-13 (3-0), 252.13
Ray has been out for a while and they have not been able to compensate for his loss. On paper they should have enough firepower to be more than a one and done playoff team. They need King and/or Aranguren to step up.
2. Yoder Dame Fighting Amish: 10-14 (2-1), 232.88
Moni has solved their center problem. Forwards are productive. They need Shulga to be more aggressive offensively and for Sears to at least be consistent, and, concurrently, get up to around 21 fppg. They are a sleeper team.
3. Leathernecks: 6-18 (1-2), 222.0
Buchanan is still sucking. They bought “early” on minimal performances and it cost them. With only four guys on the roster averaging 20+ you can safely say they should be in heavy prospect scouting mode for next year. I feel for them. It’s tough to be named after a tortoise but have your school logo be a bulldog.
4. The Prodigal Son: 6-18 (0-3), 203.38
Basically, in the same boat as the Leathernecks and it’s leaking.
Valvano Conference
Rupp Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
Boeheim’s Army is on the march.
1. Cal Bears: 8-16 (3-0), 236.25
Fire the GM!!! They have a quality center and a quality freshman and yet the current GM has not made one move to build that foundation into a strong playoff contender! Got 3 players+Degenhart. Don’t get it. They coulda’ been a contenda’…
2. Albuquerque Chicken Hawks: 21-3 (2-1), 312.13
Pinzon’s been out and Timberlake has re-emerged. The Hawks have a doggone good lineup although Barnhizer will be a little less effective in Big Ten play. Good frosh and he has the depth thing covered as well. They are good without Broome (currently out with an ankle injury) but will be great again when he returns in a couple weeks.
3. Independent George: 12-12 (1-2), 239.50
They added a starting guard in O’Neil but still have 3 moves left to address the problem of having zero depth to speak of. Good lineup but nothing behind it.
4. Boeheim’s Army: 13-11 (0-3), 261.13
Scoring is up dramatically since the 4-week mark. No real stars but the addition of frosh Blake Harper really helped their lineup flexibility as they already had two good freshmen and now they can slot Harper in at one of the guard spots if they want to. I would like to see them add a BPA with their one remaining move. Guard, center or forward, makes no difference. They are the 2nd best team in the Rupp.
Smith Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
This division is interesting. Long term I like the Gators & Walk Ons over the Tribe.
1. Tribe: 13-11 (3-0), 249.25
They have more than survived the disappointment from Cheeks & Shumate, and, to a degree, Ike. They’ve got guards and a freshman. A forward or a center would be nice but they are out of moves. Too bad that nobody trades in this league…
2. Gators: 12-12 (2-1), 259.86
Mixed bag. There are a couple of interesting developments that if true, could help them tremendously moving forward such as the re-emergence of Pike over the last two games and they may get a lot more out of Walsh now that he’s in conference play. Add in that Indiana has been going to Ballo a little more and you have a really good-looking starting lineup, especially since you have to look at Flagg as a guard with Kam Jones in their best lineup. The Gators may be sitting in that murky water but they are not asleep but looming and waiting for the playoffs to start.
3. Pirate’s Raiders: 7-17 (1-2), 218.13
Dixon, Small, maybe Thomas and a lot of average after that. They’re toast.
4. The Walk Ons: 14-10 (0-3), 248.0
They have a chance to be the best team in this division. Omier is a consistent stud. Ivisic is one of the top freshmen. Wolf has “found himself” and should continue to be a force going forward. Apparently, Felton, who was benched by his ECU HC is “back,” starting to get more scoring opps again, etc., etc., the WO’s will need him to have any type of playoff run, although they have a sleeper I like. I think that Lawson will be a factor sooner than later as he has been getting more and more aggressive. Their best ball is definitely ahead of them.