Finally, after the regular season has been completed, and everybody has made significant adds, a picture has developed. Oh, there’s still cloudiness and of course, some uncertainty due to those recent additions, but, if there wasn’t what fun would this be? We are now using lineup averages, which of course, is how the playoffs work, and, is a far more reliable indicator of outcome.
I have ranked, or, “seeded” if you will, the top 3 teams in order of which team has the highest lineup average.
After that, I have grouped teams in the order of how I like them for the playoffs and NOT on their lineup averages. But, now that nobody has to “chase” games to build up numbers, we will see the best vs. the best…which means? Upsets of course! Every year there are at least 2-3 teams that have a week in the playoffs that they couldn’t have even dreamed of having and they knock off a much better team. I don’t see that changing.
On the other hand, remember that each team is going to usually score 10-15 points less than their max lineup total listed. That’s not a theory of mine, it just happens. Oh, the better teams will usually have one week at or even above their max, another close to the max, another maybe 5-10 points below their max, and, then they have a bad, or, hopefully, just a kind of average week that comes in the first round and doesn’t kill them. Due to the above, I will put the “adjusted score” (underlined) after their real lineup average.
>So, think of the adjusted score as the more likely max lineup average that each team can achieve. And remember, even adjusting the score, that “adjusted score” is still the max. So, think of it as a standard, but expect to see teams go from maybe 5 points under that adjusted score to 5 points higher in most cases.
The Favorites (best lineup average in parentheses)
Maize And Blue Bloods (170.1)
It’s difficult to put them behind other talented teams when you look at what I call the “consistency factor.” Perhaps I put too much on consistency when true consistency is not possible in fantasy basketball, meaning inconsistency is the norm, but I have to look to which teams are most likely to get expected numbers from their best players and it’s a formula that while not perfect, is the closest I have been able to find in projecting results.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Smith, 23.9
G-Haggerty, 23.0
F-Omier, 25.9
F-Brooks, 24.7
C-Kalkbrenner, 28.6
*6th-Jefferson, 21.8
FR-Newell, 22.2
Total=170.1/160.1
Key recent addition: Joshua Jefferson f/c.
*They just added Threat, who is at 21.9 but I see him as guard depth and not a replacement for Jefferson.
Analysis: Obviously, besides consistency from players like Omier, Brooks, Kalkbrenner, and, the freshman, they have explosiveness. Omier has had a few more un-Omier like games of late (he plays in the conference with the most defensively-oriented coaches), but he’s still 25+. Smith is a stat-stuffer so he can weather a shooting slump here or there and Haggerty just gets his. Newell can go off at any time. Here’s the thing. I don’t see them having a down week. Their lineup may not total 155+ each week but somebody is going to have to beat them and not just “luck” their way past them.
Prozac Pups (175.7)
Aha! Bet you didn’t see this coming! The Pups have been traveling incognito all season. I have alluded to their talent being much greater than their stats and now it will be unveiled in the playoffs.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Bradley, 24.3
G-Barnhizer, 23.4
F-Dixon, 26.6
F-Toppin, 23.6
C-Raynaud, 30.1
6th-Ejiofor, 23.6
FR-Bailey, 24.1
Total=175.7/165.7
Key recent additions: Doctor Bradley, g/f.
Analysis: Not just 2, or even 3 but 4 studs (players averaging 25+). Yes, “fingers” Bradley, has a small sample, but, he is the man for “The Pine Bluff” and only the free throw line seems to occasionally bedevil him. Same for Dixon. Toppin is back and Raynaud just plows through. For a St. John’s fan their GM must be ecstatic over Ejiofor, and, Bailey has the keys to the kingdom in Jersey. However, there has been some serious conference “slippage” for Barnhizer & Bradley plays a little wildly, so there’s that to consider. They are not as consistent as MBB, but I would say that they are close in that department, so when you add in their explosiveness, well, they are going to have to do it to prove it, but they are actually the favorite in “numbers town” (apologies to Guy Fieri), with a 10-point lineup advantage over MBB. Note 3 straight weeks of 300+points…they have hit their prime…
Deep Valley Grouchos (178.2)
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Jones, 24.3
G-Peterson, 22.1
F-Broome, 30.8
F-Noel, 24.0
C-Cluff, 32.1
6th-Solomon, 22.7
*FR-Ivisic, 22.2
Total=178.2/168.2
Key recent additions: Solomon-f & Doty-freshman guard. Sleeper addition: Hines-g.
*Ivisic has missed his last two games due to illness and/or injury.
Analysis: If you’re paying attention, the DVG’s lineup does average 8 points more than MBB. So what? It’s consistency I value most. A hypothetical match between the DVG’s & MBB would hinge on Broome & Cluff getting their averages (which they are capable of doing) and Jones & Peterson not dipping too far below their averages (something, unfortunately they are capable of doing-that is, dipping below their averages). Solomon was brought in because he has the consistency of an MBB’er while there are some concerns regarding Ivisic, who has had an excellent frosh season, so Doty, who since becoming a starter four games ago has averaged 22+ is a key addition. Hines is a gamble & will be asked to help stop the bleeding at guard. He has been putting up good numbers of late and has a favorable playoff schedule.
The Disruptors
Psychos (163.1)
They are a very dangerous team and not because they are psychos. Clifford has consistently put up good numbers while Reese is steady as always.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Clifford, 25.8
G-Tait-Jones, 22.6
F-Reese, 23.2
F-Moncrieffe, 22.9
C-Moni, 24.1
6th-Koonce, 21.7
FR-Harper, 22.8
Total=163.1/153.1
Key recent additions: Moncrieffe-f.
Analysis: You need to be a good detective to be a good GM. I can’t remember ever liking a center who basically doesn’t rebound, but Moni (5.0 rpg) makes it work with assists, points, three pointers-although he has to score & have a good fg pct., to make it work. They also have some lineup flexibility as they have some depth they can go to depending on the matchups. Clifford is not only a stud but one of the more consistent ones.
Hardwood Heroes (159.6)
159.6…Where has that been all season? Well, it’s the way that HH does business. Their GM is a pretty patient guy who doesn’t make a lot of moves, preferring to wait until way later in the season to pick up some interesting players. More of the same this year.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Jackson, 21.9
G-Hall, 21.2
F-Harris, 23.6
F-Freemantle, 21.8
*C-Mostafa, 22.5
6th- Kelly, 22.1
FR-Flagg, 26.5
Total=159.6/149.6
Key recent additions: Jackson-g, Hall-g/f.
X factor? Jackson, Kelly, Hall
*Mostafa & Quaintnance missed their last games, due to either injury or illness.
Analysis: Flagg can play guard with the best of them, not just okay for a freshman-and, yes, he’s a bonafide stud. I think that Jackson will be a great add for them-he’s killing it in con play. Harris has gone bigger while Kelly is capable.
House of Sparky (164.6)
Guards & the frosh slot will determine their fate.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Thomas, 21.7
G-McGlockton, 21.7
F-Lendeborg, 30.3
F-Towt, 25.0
C-Leuchten, 24.5
6th-Folgueiras, 24.7
FR-Pozzato, 16.7
Total=164.6/154.6
Key recent additions: Reynolds-g.
Analysis: I had serious reservations about Leuchten when it came to conference play but he has held up well and Towt has had some huge games. They are an underrated duo. Reynolds could be a better option than McGlockton. Another team that can upset a better team but they are probably going to get bit in the butt with their frosh problem.
North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer (164.3)
A lineup scoring gap of 14-15 points vs. the top three teams is significant, even if there’s seldom been a team that matches their highest numbers more than once in the playoffs. That said, if their guards can just do what they do, they could upset a higher seed, especially if “Dickinson lite” can come up big at the right time.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Clayton, 21.6
G-Falslev, 21.3
F-Batcho, 25.9
F-Otieno, 24.7
C-Dickinson, 25.5
6th-Ognacevic, 23.5
FR-Jakucionis, 21.8
Total=164.3/154.3
Key recent additions: Clayton-g.
Analysis: Despite the presence of 3 studs, their margin of error as far as being able to beat one of the top three teams is razor thin, albeit, not impossible, just highly unlikely. However, they are not a team that an opposing GM should look forward to going up against.
Can Be Pesky
The Hoop Guru (156.6)
Good forwards, good center. Good guard, and sometimes (Felton) good guard. 6th man an issue.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Small, 22.8
G-Felton, 21.6
F-Garcia, 24.2
F-Rataj, 23.9
C-Castro, 24.6
6th-Ashworth, 20.2
FR-Sydnor, 19.3
Total=156.6/146.6
Analysis: With both Castro & Garcia finishing strongly, I like THG as a strong upset play capable of winning their first two matches if they perform to their max. Note that THG has been putting up more points over the last 3 weeks…
Gator Bait (153.5)
It’s a toss-up between who’s better between the Hoosiers & Gator Bait but the Hoosiers lineup does seem to be more consistent than GB’s with Davidson & Degenhart, just to name a couple. GB has been plagued by inconsistency. Pierre & Fields were really good adds that boosted the guard position but pretty much outside of Murray-Boyles you never know what you’re going to get.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Fields, 23.5
G-Pierre, 21.1
F-Murray-Boyles, 23.7
F-Davidson, 21.0
C-Joseph, 22.5
6th-Degenhart, 21.0
*FR-Harris, 20.7
Total=153.5/143.5
Key recent additions: Fields-g.
*I prefer Harris to Edgecombe.
Analysis: Fields, Pierre, and Murray-Boyles can all go off for 25+ games but it seems that it’s hard to get more than say, four of these guys to play well and/or up to their level at the same time and that’s been part of the story. Statistically, lacking even one stud, also hurts them vs. the big boys.
Oh, BLAH Dee, Oh BLAH Dah, Life Goes On…
Hoosiers (152.3)
Fleming came on this year and Indiana finally discovered that Ballo can deliver if they gave him the ball once in a while. But, there’s not enough support behind them to stack up against the big boys.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Rubio De La Rosa, 21.3
G-Shulga, 21.0
F-Fleming, 25.7
F-Jacobi, 22.8
C-Ballo, 25.2
6th-Ilic, 20.0
FR-Knueppel, 16.3
Total=152.3/142.3
Analysis: The four “non-studs” are actually all capable of having a big game now and then but pretty much stay in their lane. In the “year of the freshman” they are hurting at that spot. Again, this team could post an early round upset if they get the right seed.
Virginia Gentlemen (154.4)
They made a number of good moves, but it just hasn’t shown up in on-court production for them. A lot of it centers around the center. They never really addressed it and while McNeeley is a good freshman, Sorber would add 5 points to that position, while a quality center (22, 23+) would replace Sorber, making them literally 5 points better right there. And, of course, having Leggett almost have to be a starter is not a disaster but not a plus, either.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Stirtz, 23.6
G-Jones, 23.0
F-Banks, 24.2
F-Murauskas, 20.9
C-Sorber, 24.2
6th-Leggett, 20.3
*FR-McNeeley, 18.1
Total=154.4/144.4
*Should McNeeley not be able to go, Sorber would go to the frosh spot and Smith would replace him at center. At 16.4, Smith would represent a loss of 7.8 fppg from Sorber.
Analysis: McNeeley suffered a bad ankle injury and has been out but is now ready to begin playing again. However, while that’s all good and there is much to like with Stirtz, Banks, Jones, and, Sorber, they are just out-gunned. They are on the treadmill. A good-looking group that can’t really gain any traction.
Hillbilly Maulers (152.3)
They’ve quietly been improving via free agency and trades. This is the best lineup they’ve put together for at least 3 years and that’s a good trend to see.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Brown, 22.0
G-Lawson, 21.0
F-Schieffelin, 23.1
F-Williams-Dryden, 21.8
C-Ballard, 22.2
6th-Morgan, 20.8
FR-Queen, 21.4
Total=152.3/142.3
Key recent additions: Ballard-c, Schieffelin-f.
Analysis: I would not play Lanier (HM is a Vols fan). No real one guy who can just go off, but, a lot of pretty good, steady producers. Because they don’t have any explosive guys they need to face a team that has one or two of their better players take a dip. If that happens, like the tortoise, they can then defeat the hare.
The Sammies? Are They Still In The League?
Apologies to paraphrasing Bill Terry, one-time manager of the New York Giants baseball team who was jokingly asked by a reporter if the downtrodden Brooklyn Dodgers were still in the league back in 1934.
Sam Jacobson Went To Class (147.3)
Of course, while most of the rest of the league struggles at the guard position (I would be happy with just one) the Sams have two good ones but not nearly enough firepower to turn that rarest of ores, “guard gold” into something that can make them a formidable force.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Timberlake, 24.2
G-Bailey, 23.0
F-Avila, 22.2
F-Pierce, 19.9
C-Ewin, 20.6
6th-Nembhard, 19.5
FR-Demin, 16.2
Total=145.6/135.6
Key recent additions: Fields-g.
Analysis: Any team that has to have Nembhard in the lineup is doomed to fail. Avila is a little down, Pierce has been disappointing. They just lack punch.
Mr. McCandles, I Thought You Was Dead!
The title of this group is from a John Wayne turn of the century cowboy story with Maureen O’Hara playing his estranged wife. Nobody has seen him for years, so, upon finding out who he is a number of people utter that line, to which the Duke, while giving a look that only he could do, replies: “Not hardly.” That sort of fits the teams in this group. They’re not dead but we really haven’t seen them around much this season.
Saluki YRD’s (148.3)
As you can see (150) they are not totally bereft when it comes to talent. But they have more than one player who can really be up and down and it “Bittles” them in the ass.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-O’Neil, 22.6
G-Durugordon, 21.4
F-Brzovic, 23.8
F-Elias, 22.0
C-Bittle, 20.3
6th-Kaluma, 21.9
FR-Yigitoglu, 16.3
Total=148.3/138.3
Key recent additions: O’Neil-g.
Analysis: They bit too early on the SMU horses, along with two other “name” freshmen that didn’t figure to do much, so, they can just toss darts to see which of the three frosh they play and that position can absolutely “Kaluma” (sorry, can’t help myself) them in the playoffs. O’Neil a really nice add and Elias can go big but they don’t have nearly enough.
Vindaloos (147.4)
They’re just so bourgeois…average.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Osobor, 21.2
G-Clayton, 20.0
F-Ike, 22.6
F-Anderson, 20.1
C-Woodward, 23.1
6th-Burton, 19.7
FR-Wooley, 20.7
Total=147.4/137.4
Analysis: A couple of guys you would expect more from, a couple of guys who should never have been put in the position of having to be starters, etc., etc., it’s a recipe for a nothingburger…
DOA
“DOA” may mean due on arrival to most of us but it also means dead on arrival and was a classic film noir starring Edmund O’Brien. I won’t disclose the plot, suffice to say you should see if you can find it and stream it…
KC Warthogs (139.2)
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Harper, 21.6
G-Lee, 20.9
F-Karaban, 21.3
F-Pyke, 17.4
C-Wolf, 22.0
6th-Awaka, 16.9
FR-Taylor, 19.1
Total=139.2/129.2
Analysis: Of all the teams in the league none has suffered as much from loss of expected production than KC. Lee should be at 22. With all the graduation losses, Karaban should be at 23. Pyke shouldn’t be in the lineup-there should be a 22 in his place. Wolf should be 23. Awaka should never be in the lineup and there should be at least a 21 in his stead. That right there is 12 points per game in average. That’s steep.
Thoughts on the Tournament
Due to the scoring disparity between teams the chances of the top four seeds advancing to the semi’s seems stronger than usual-as there appear to be few chances for upsets, looking at the two sides of the bracket. I don’t have the stats on how often it has happened but I would say that the odds this particular year do favor a 1 vs. 3 & 2 vs. 4 semifinals. To me, there are no fascinating first round matchups. Not that the seeds will necessarily play to form (could certainly be a first round upset), just no compelling matchups. Projecting round 2, intriguing matchups abound.