#1 Albuquerque Chickenhawks vs. #8 T-N-T Youngsters
AC fought off a spirited effort by The Prodigal Son to advance. Not that they really need him to do so on a regular basis, but when Kelton Talford puts up 61 fantasy points in two games, you know it’s all over for the opponent. Plus, Kaleb Banks went belly up for TPS, sealing their fate. AC has depth, unlike their faves, Arizona. T-N-T? McLaughlin, who is often hit or miss, hit big while McGlockton was good. Having the guards come through was huge since Otieno and Ejiofor did not. Recent frosh add Doty was inserted into the lineup and had a very good week. T-N-T got past Independent George. The “Filewich factor” was in play. I am not a Filewich fan but I admitted in print already that I was wrong about him this year. Of course, he saved his best time to revert back to the real Filewich during the first round of the playoffs and he and a suckwad week from Toppin of all people, killed IG, negating a best of the year fantasy performance from Caleb Love (wow! IG had big cojones to go with Love!)
Analysis: This matchup will be all about…what else? The guards-to a great extent. Does he once again gamble on McLaughlin going big? (he does). Does he believe that McGlockton can have another couple of good games in SEC play? (he does). AC doesn’t have to win the battle of the guards to win the war. Just stay close. But, with Timberlake & Bailey they are likely to on paper. Meanwhile, the Youngsters need Raynaud to hit his average (30 instead of the 24 he put up in the Sweet 16), Otieno to bounce back and be the best version of himself (24+), and Ejiofor to be closer to his 23.6 fppg. So, more things need to happen for T-N-T.
X-FACTOR: T-N-T is going with Bittle in the 6th man slot. Not a bad choice at all, but, along with the guards and his freshman, a key factor. Also, whether or not it goes well, I like his starting McLaughlin. The T-N-T GM knows that he is going to have too big to have a decent shot and besides Raynaud, McLaughlin is his best shot. Too bad that his top frosh Sorber is N/A-a negative X-factor.
>Favorite: Albuquerque Chickenhawks
#12 The Walk Ons vs. #13 Cal Bears
A 12 vs. 13 games in the Elite 8? Wow! The Walk Ons are like a jewel thief who has just robbed Tiffany’s in Beverly Hills only to walk outside and find that he has to navigate his escape while a disaster movie earthquake is going on. In other words, they have some treasure but also some fabulous fakes that often pass for treasure. Doctor Bradley (Dr. Bradley to the ER!) is a force that has elevated the WO’s. Felton would be a “fabulous fake” although right now he is definitely on the upswing. Even when just okay (for him) Omier is a treasure. Hargrove a fabulous fake. Wolf a treasure. Pridgen a fabulous fake. Maluach can be a diamond or a zircon. Of course, with Ivisic recently having had mono and now an ankle issue, he doesn’t have much choice. The GM does have a choice in either Lawson or Hargrove. The WO’s did catch a break from Hog Wild’s King & Koonce absolutely sucking at the guard slots. The stats for both team’s players are similar. Cal however, does have Kalkbrenner, who not only is averaging 28+ but is definitely peaking in con play. The WO’s will counter w/Bradley, so the Kalkbrenner advantage is somewhat neutralized. Like Kalkbrenner, Garcia is playing his best. He matches up with Omier. With Newell, Cal wins the freshman matchup-however, Newell may have to slot in at forward while Quaintnance gets the starting frosh nod-still an edge for Cal. G/f Keyshawn Hall has to come up big (big in this case just means getting his 21+) for Cal to get it done since the WO’s have a grip of guys putting up 22 fppg.
X-FACTOR: Who knew that there is dark web betting on fantasy college basketball (Cal GM betting on the Walk Ons)? Must be, because that is the only thing that explains Cal having Lowe, Stojakovic, and, Javonte Brown all starting. I mean, I can see one. And, if you’re mellowing out on some groovy, primo grass, maybe two. But starting all 3 in a weird kamikaze go for broke move? Ballsy or stupid or both. If it works, I’ll say my mea culpa’s…
>Favorite: The Walk Ons
#2 South Austin Horns vs. #7 Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion
SAH had Jamar Brown go off-which is a shock (if he’s really back to being himself pre-December, well…) but a good one. Paired w/Haggerty he just has to be average (20). Kaluma, Davidson, Goldin, and, Lee is definitely not reliable, but are more often than not on the right side of the coin. If you’re talking about peaking at the right time, at the moment it defines GOPP, which finished the regular season as the NCAA’s hottest team and has so far seen it continue in the playoffs. However, they rode a real roller coaster in the first round against the Gators. Hines sucked; Luis was much better than normal at the guard slots. Jacobi was below average while Kaufman-Renn was above average. Cluff was Cluff and then, fouling out in just 20 minutes, he was not. Mincey had his best game by far. For their game against PR, I think they need to take Hines out of the lineup and sub in Sandfort-who’s been shooting it much better of late. Cluff & Jacobi figure to be more like their usual as well. GOPP must have about 4 players hit or exceed their max while SAH can pretty much just keep on truckin’.
X-FACTOR: I don’t think that the Horns have put out the lineup that gives them the best chance of winning.
>The Result? Edge to SAH as their pathway to winning seems to be more straightforward while GOPP will likely have to negotiate some scoring detours to try and get to the finish line.
#3 Boeheim’s Army vs. #6 Tribe
The army vs. the Indians for old west supremacy? There are a lot of things going on for each team which makes for an interesting dynamic; in other words, this is the most interesting 2nd round match. Ognacevic…yes, Ognacevic is balling for BA! If he can maintain a good level, it lifts Brzovic-who is usually pretty steady and gives them a formidable forward duo. The freshman Harper is good enough to put at a guard spot (Edgecombe is serviceable at the frosh spot) alongside Braden Smith, giving them an even more formidable guard tandem. Mostafa is solid at center. Of course, I would put Nelly Junior Joseph back in the lineup, leave Harper as the freshman, IF Air Force has a good schedule and put Taylor back in at the guard instead of gambling on Porter and/or Edgecombe. But the point is, BA has a couple of good options to consider. That lineup ranges from 22.0-23.9. Sweet! For the William & Mary Tribe not called quest they have something that BA does not…explosives! Towt (especially Towt), frosh Bailey & Stirtz can go big at 25.0, 24.2, and 23.6 respectively, giving them one nice variable that BA does not have and, all 3 are pretty consistent. Ike, while not as consistent, matches Mostafa at center.
X-FACTOR: BA needs someone besides Smith who can go big. Can Ognacevic stay on a Kaiser roll and not go bagel?
>Not listing a favorite but the edge goes to: The Tribe which simply has many more things that can go right than wrong vs. BA.