A place for the David (Deep Valley Grouchos) to do his draft analysis
DVG’s MML DRAFT RECAP
9 thoughts on “DVG’s MML DRAFT RECAP”
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
A place for the David (Deep Valley Grouchos) to do his draft analysis
You must be logged in to post a comment.
2021-2022 MML Draft Thread
Hi everybody, per usual, I am following the draft and will be posting a “draft thread” as it goes along, two completed rounds at a time, so below are my comments on the first two rounds of the draft.
1st Round
The first round is going about as expected historically, as freshmen accounted for 9 of the 11 picks in the round. Although nobody knows which freshmen really are going to be the top freshmen in fantasy basketball, if you are going to choose a freshman I thought that Sam Jacobson Went To Class got one of the top two in taking Patrick Baldwin. Paolo Banchero is the other freshman who will have all the opportunity in the world to put up fantasy points and The Deadwood Gang snagged him.
Head scratching choice? Well, John Meeks to the North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer stood out. Besides the small statistical sample, he is transferring UP in conference and everybody should know how that historically, works out. Do I think Meeks is a potentially good fantasy player? Yes. But, despite his being the top ranked free agent (just 7 games played at a lower competitive level) I wouldn’t have even considered him until after the 5th round. Good luck to the Reindeer.
Moi, you ask? The Deep Valley Grouchos (DVG’s) took Elijah Ford, the highest scoring free agent guard (according to conference-only stats) but that doesn’t mean he was the best player available (BPA). In fact, this is the first year ever that I can say that I could not identify that one free agent who is definitely “the man.” I don’t think there is one. I got the highest scoring guard; guard was also the strongest position of need for us, his “plus ratio” (fantasy average minus scoring average) was outstanding, he rebounds, and, he is also about as consistent as it gets…so, I took him. Good luck to me.
To sum up the first round…as usual I don’t understand how teams that need multiple players (3 or more) to fill out a good starting lineup continue to pass up a known product (a free agent) to take an unknown product who is also a likely one and done so they will have to select free agents of lesser ability-with less impact statistically, to choose from the next time they come to the plate…something that always makes me go…hmmm…
2nd Round
To me, this is where the draft starts to get interesting and that started with the first pick of the round, Ryan Davis to the Psychos. I found this interesting because the Psychos don’t “need” a center. I had targetted Davis for my second selection but figured I had only a 25% chance (1 in 4) of getting him. I was close. I had a 20% chance. Is this why their name is the Psychos? Make no mistake about it, Davis is a good fantasy player and he will help their team-so, this is a good pick, it’s just that their roster is screaming for a guard. The Virginia Gentlemen were up next and they made a strong pick in taking Dylan Painter. Steady and will have some monster games. The VG GM is one of the best in the league. They are loading up!
Up next is the WORST pick so far. The Hardwood Heroes (UCLA fan?) selected Johnny Juzang. Juzang’s fantasy average of 16.3 barely surpasses his real scoring average of 16.0. A +.3 doesn’t cut it. He has to average over 20 for one of the “anti-offensive” coaches just to get to 20 fppg. In other words, if Juzang had fantasy upside, I could at least say maybe-although this would still be way, way too high for him to be selected. This could be a mortuary pick. In other words, a high draft choice going to a team with a lot of needs that will not produce, in effect, burying the team that drafted him. They needed two guards, a forward, and, a center, IMHO, pre-draft. Good luck with this one. The Deadwood Gang selected Eli Scott, who is a good pick…’nuff said.
The DVG’s were up next. As mentioned above, the DVG’s wanted Ryan Davis and with Davis off the board were back to looking at the BPA and not the BPA who plays center. However, unrelenting (patting myself on the back) research came up with the fact that Grant Basile had been re-classified as a f/c, which now made him worth taking (for the DVG’s) since he is very close to Davis and has not reached his ceiling statistically. In other words, the DVG’s got “lucky” in a sense and were able to reach that fabulous intersection again (their first round pick would qualify), at least on paper of BPA and position of need. Very good get for the DVG’s.
The Hoosiers, having gotten some of the “bad acid” went back for back in taking another freshman. The Hoosiers are loaded at center and have a stud forward. So, yes, this qualifies as another “head scratching” move as it appears they could be wasting the “gift” of getting Trayce Jackson-Davis back for another season…Hmmm… Before he transferred I believed that Dylan Disu may have been the top FA available. Conference-wise, he didn’t make the dreaded transfer “up,” but he went from a program that needs him to get 20 & 10 to a program that has more than just two players who are offensive-minded, so, at best, a wait and see approach needs to be taken with him, IMHO. but the Hillbilly Maulers couldn’t resist the sugar. A.J. Green has shown himself to be a good fantasy player in the past, so, I much prefer him to the Reindeer’s first pick.
Well, as always I enjoy reading the DVG’s analysis, so don’t take this the wrong way. We shall see what John Meeks can do. Hopefully he is not a bust, I guess that’s why they play the games I suppose. My thought on this pick is yes, it was based on a very small sample size as far as statistics go, however he is going to a team that returns only one of the its top seven scoring players, so I feel he will be forced into putting up (fantasy) points with a new coach @ CofC also. Blue Ribbon has him as Newcomer of the Year and that is the Bible of College Hoops, so I liked that endorsement. I don’t feel this is quite the “step up” in going from what is normally a (non Covid year) strong team in Bucknell from the Patriot League (arguably somewhere around 18-22 in conference rankings to the CAA, which is somewhere around 15-17 in conference rankings). We shall see if the risk is worth the reward? Hey at least I did learn from your analysis from last year to stay away from Freshmen in the first round, so you gotta give me some credit as far as that goes! 🙂
Anyhow, I look forward to another fun season with everyone in the MML. Good luck to all!
Fear the Deer!!
Appreciate you Keith! I didn’t mean to infer that Meeks would be a bust. I agree with you that the opportunity is there, I’m just not sure of his value as the top pick of the draft.
I really do like to see the league be as competitive as it can be from top to bottom so I am hoping he is that 25+fppg player. Heck, even 23 fppg would make him a viable choice as the top pick.
I am dying to get started!
3rd Round
Samwise? I am not ready to re-anoint the Sammies, but, as I noted last year, the times they are a’ changin’ (apologies to Bob Dylan) for the Sams. I don’t know if he’s a Seal fan, but, his selection of Peter Kiss (can’t you just hear former ESPN television announced Dan Patrick stretching out the Kiss?) is an excellent one as Kiss may be the most consistent fantasy player in the FA field. North Pole felt like he had to take a freshman, so, they selected one. Hillbilly went against the odds (which are about 100 to 1) in taking Marreon Jackson, who has not only transferred up, but transferred to “the zoo,” AKA, Arizona State. Good luck with that one.
Grant Sherfield went to The Deadwood Gang. Sherfield is a decent guard who probably should go later in the draft and as a 3rd guard, not a starter, with his 20.7 fppg in conference play and a spread of just 2.1. That spread tells you he has to score more, a lot more, to pump up his fantasy average, so, I don’t think he has any upside unless Nevada wants him to jack up another 5 shots a game. So, not a bad pick, as he will have some big games, but, not the best pick at this slot, looking at what was still on the board. Hardwood went with Nate Watson. Again, not a bad pick as the center pool does not appear to be that deep (although a few centers always emerge during the season), but, Watson is a poor rebounding center. That makes me wonder at his upside. He has a decent +4.0 spread, averaging 20.3 fppg vs. 16.3 ppg in conference. Again, certainly respectable. It’s just that, in the 3rd round, are you looking for respectable, or, at least the possibility of something greater?
Over the last two to three years I often feel that Gator Bait is reading my mind, it’s scary how similarly we look at players. But not in this case. Now, E.J. Liddell could go big this season, it’s just that the fundamentals I look at don’t scream that at me. He’s actually not a great rebounder and that stat almost never changes dramatically, and, he can’t attempt too many more FGA’s than he did last season, but, to be fair, he will be the man, this is his “money” season so he is going to have to show he can shoot the trey. But his +2.8 spread (I prefer a minimum of +4.0, and, for forwards, a little more would be nice) in conference concerns me as far as converting more shots/points into more fantasy points. Still, I can understand GB liking Liddell…I see his fppg going up this year, I just don’t see him becoming a 23+fppg player.
4th Round
Scottie Pippen Jr., is an interesting pick for the Psychos. He is virtually the same vs. both non-con and what is usually a tougher SEC schedule. He is a “home-run hitter.” Sometimes he goes big and sometimes he strikes out, but, he gets his shots up and he is dangerous. Of course, he is erratic with a -0.7 spread. It’s too bad he doesn’t rebound it well for a guard. His only shot to increase his fppg is to shoot it better than 42.8% from the field…Prozac took a freshman.
Jalen Moore is another “home-run hitter” similar to Pippen, but, better. Plays against weaker competition and does more things statistically well than Pippen, so, he can survive a bad shooting game. I also think that Jalen Moore has some upside and can out-perform last season’s fantasy numbers. I like him over Pippen, and, I like him for the Warthogs, although again, I must say that KC left better guards on the board.
The DVG’s (yes, me) then made kind of a shocking pick in going with Keegan Murray. This is definitely a speculative pick, or, “spec,” pick. If you play cards, “specking,” in poker, for instance, would be akin to trying to draw to a straight, or, in gin-if that’s your game, it’s picking up a card that you hope will soon be joined by another card, to help your hand, etc., etc. In other words, I gambled. Now, if Murray averages under 20 it’s simply a bad pick. 20-21 fppg, then it was a so-so pick for this particular draft slot. If he averages 22 fppg, it’s a decent pick for this draft position. 23 makes it a good pick, 24 a very good pick, and, of course, 25 fppg is the floor for what I call a stud. So, I’m ready to accept criticism for this pick. As to what made me take him here? Well, first of all, I know we have some GM’s that really know their stuff, and although he was #577 in terms of where he is in the FA pool based on scoring average, he didn’t figure to be around past the 5th round, IMHO. Second, his stats from last year are promising: 14.5 vs. 7.8 in con in just 18.8 mpg. I like his +6.7 spread and showed high production in under 19 minutes per game. However, despite all those good fantasy fundamentals I have to admit that he is still a “spec.”
Hard to believe that 4 teams that took a guard before the Fightin’ Reindeer all passed on Alex Morales, who is far superior statistically to any of them. 22.63 vs. 17.3 in con, A +5.3 spread for a guard who also rebounds and dishes. This is a great pick for the Reindeer, doubly so, because they got one of the top FA guards near the very end of the 4th. Well done!
Last pick of the round was Wesley Cardet-Samford, which is interesting because he is a 4 star rated recruit. He’s a freshman who should have every opportunity to play major minutes for Samford. An interesting pick by the Sams.
2021-2022 MML Draft Thread
Rounds 5 & 6
5th Round
The Sam’s followed up their frosh pick with a doozie! Selecting Courtney Brown of St. Thomas. St. Thomas is about to play their first season of DI competition. Brown (#1508 in the FA pool) is a transfer from Milwaukee-Wisconsin where he did not exactly tear it up. While I am sure that “Sammie” thinks he knows something (being a Minnesota guy), when you look at the starters returning, I would say that while Brown is an important transfer for St. Thomas, that he is also the WORST PICK of this draft by far, especially considering the Jacobson’s do not have a championship lineup and can not afford to engage in this type of tomfoolery…harumph! The Maulers, Salukis, and Vindaloos all selected freshmen.
Only 4 picks in the round and 3 were frosh. Maybe an MML record for fewest picks, fewest non-freshmen picked, highest percentage of picks being freshmen???
6th Round
An interesting pick to start the round! #1477 Walker Kessler by The Hoop Guru. Kessler has impressive rebound per minute stats but still just managed a +4.0 spread. It is a highly speculative pick and the odds are against him getting a fantasy average of 20 or more-especially due to how Auburn plays, and, once again, this is really more of a move that should be made in the 10th round or after, but, it is an interesting “spec” with some promise that will more than likely show up the season after this one if it is to work out at all. A brief adjournment for a freshman pick and…another frosh pick and then a rather pointless and puzzling selection of Collin Gillespie by the Hoosiers. Saying that Gillespie has “zero upside” to produce anything significantly higher than the 17.3 fppg vs. his 14.0 scoring average is an understatement. Gillespie plays for Villanova. They are a “share the wealth” offense. Let’s say that the Hoosiers would be happy if Gillespie averaged 21 fppg. Well, just to get 21-which is fine, not great, but certainly desirable to most fantasy GM’s, he would have to average 18.0 ppg to get his 21. Yes, you can say that he only needs to bump up his scoring average a measly 4 points but that would be a lot at a program like Villanova and just not realistic. A head scratcher…Hillbilly snagged a potentially really good pick in Pedro Castro, who has transferred from Houston Baptist to UT-Arlington. It is a step up and Castro won’t be the whole show but I don’t think the move is too big for him. The Fightin’ Reindeer made a sneaky good pick in Jayden Martinez. Not only does he has a healty spread of +7.3 but his real stats have improved every year of his collegiate career. This is what I call good research/scouting, as Martinez could wind up being one of the top forwards in the MML this year!
2021-2022 MML Draft Thread
Rounds 7 & 8
7th Round
We’re on a roll! 2 consecutive good picks to end the 6th and a good pick to begin the 7th round! North Pole adds a nice forward to pair with Martinez in Maizen Fausett. He’s got a strong +spread and is a fairly consistent stat getter. Hoosiers had to take a freshman, next, and, he’s from Indiana, natch…DVG’s take Andrew Taylor. I was a little nervous “waiting” to take Taylor here as I really wanted to take him with my previous pick, but, looking at the draft pick pattern that was evolving I gambled that he would still be on the board. Part of that could be that GM’s who took a cursory look noticed that despite a healthy +7.1 spread his fantasy average was just 19.1. But an in-depth look would have revealed that his conference average was 23.1 and what makes that “real” is the fact that his spread actually went up to +8.3. Another one of the better GM’s is Maize and Blue Bloods (yes, not blood, but, bloods-their aristocratic line runs deep). They snagged a “forgotten?” player who has proven his bonafides in Taylor Funk. Funk’s spread is only +3.4 but he scores enough (19.3 ppg) to make up for that, resulting in a 22.7 fppg average. The Psychos then took Dwight Wilson, a good player, but, again, I don’t see any upside and if you want your team to be a good one, he’s a reserve, not a starter-and, I’m assuming that any team drafting this high (remember, it’s the 7th round but he’s just the 67th pick of the draft, meaning that with 16 teams, it’s equivalent to a 4th round pick-is looking for an impact-possible player and not a valuable reserve. Upside is lacking as in where is Wilson going to be able to go statistically, to move up from his 19.3 fppg? But it’s The Hoop Guru that gets the dreaded “worst pick” of the round designation with their selection of James Bishop. Bishop had a fantasy average of 16.0. His real scoring average was 19.1-which means he has a negative spread of -3.1; OUCH! And, he doesn’t rebound besides not being the world’s greatest shooter. I know each of us sees something in each pick we make and God knows I have had my share of misses, but, I just don’t see one fundamental stat that makes me go, “Well, Bishop is a steal…if he does this…if this happens…etc., etc.” Bishop is D.O.A. (that’s dead on arrival for the non-moviegoers among you). The last pick of the 7th round went to Gator Bait and they took a good one in John-Michael Wright. His +spread is less than +1.0, but, he is a scorer, getting 22.5 fppg in con. And, if he shoots it a little better that number will go up. They needed a guard and they got one of the top three left in the FA pool.
8th Round
They Psychos started off the round by taking Riley Grigsby…all I can say is…why? Grigsby is 18.1 fppg vs. 17.3 for a +0.8 spread…hmm…Besides the obvious, Seattle brought in another transfer who likes to jack it up. I just don’t see where a jump from mediocre to good, fantasy-wise, occurs. Tolu Smith has a foot issue and isn’t supposed to be available until late November, and, foot issues scare me with basketball players, but, he’s worth taking, so, I’m all in on this Hardwood Heroes pick. The Deadwood Gang rebound with the pick of Ricky Lindo. Again, there were better in the FA pool, but, Lindo, who is a strong rebounder also sports a +10.3 spread. Well done Gang! This was followed by the Hoosiers making another one of those, hmm, what were they thinking picks, going for Cole Swider. A great shooter, that’s nice, not a great rebounder, that’s not so nice and his role is as a shooter. Not as a guy who is going to get say, even 15 & 8 every game…and certainly not with a +3.3 spread…A puzzle, or, puzzler closes out the 8th round. Sam Jacobson selected E.J. Anosike. Anosike is a player I am very familiar with. When he was still at Sacred Heart I took him and got 656 fantasy points out of him for one season. Then, he transferred to Tennessee and I dropped him…and, he lost his game as he hardly played. Now, he is at Cal State Fullerton. So, I don’t know if Anosike is “healed,” and will be more like the stud I knew from Sacred Heart or if his heart has been ripped out by one of the anti-offensive coaches. So, this is neither a good pick or a bad pick right now. But it is a why would you take him here pick when he would likely still be around in the 13th round? Not a good value pick.
2021-2022 MML Draft Thread
Rounds 9 & 10
9th Round
Tre Mitchell! Tre Mitchell! Tre Mitchell! Not as catchy as “Chaka Khan, Chaka Khan, Chaka Khan,” as the song goes but…Listen, Tre Mitchell was the man at UMass. But, now he’s sharing the stage with 4 other guys who can score the ball. Marcus Carr has never not taken a shot he didn’t like-because he likes them all. Dylan Disu has transferred in. Texas has other scorers returning. I don’t see Mitchell-although he’s talented, scoring like he did at UMass. His weakness was being a so-so rebounder-not as bad as Nate Watson, but, you get the drift. He was improving that but doesn’t figure to rebound enough to make up for his lower scoring average. No doubt he will have a few big games but I doubt he can be an 18 & 8 guy unless Disu goes down with an injury. I think that North Pole is betting against the house on this one. Michael Nuga is a promising pick by Hillbilly. He has the numbers but is transferring into Bryce Hamilton territory. Bryce is in his “salary drive” year, and will probably try to score even more than he has in the past. However, UNLV is sort of a mess as a program right now and Nuga may be able to post consistent numbers. +4.1 spread. He can shoot it, doesn’t turn it over much and rebounds well for a guard. He just has to get his hands on the ball and not give it up as much as he has in the past, or, he may not see it again. I like this pick. Cam Holden to the DVG’s. Holden is a transfer, but, he’s transferring to a similar level school (from UT-Martin to Towson) and I think he has a good chance to maintain his +7.9 spread; 23.0 fppg vs. 15.1 ppg. The Deadwood Gang are taking a “spec” pick in Andre Curbelo. Curbelo did not shoot the three very much, or, very well but he did shoot a high fg pct., rebounds, doesn’t turn it over very much, etc., etc., in other words, with Dosunmu gone, he is being given the keys to the car. His anemic spread of +2.9 is a little worrisome, but, he is a good gamble and I like the pic. Another good pick-up is Colin Castleton by Hardwood. He should see a few more looks and rebound just a little better. Frosh…and, The Hoop Guru is going to give Collin Welp another try…Well, anything can happen but Welp plays in a program that has never featured one player offensively under the current coach. A very good coach, but, that’s not how they play. The Guru could have done better elsewhere in the FA pool. KC Ndefo is what he is…in other words, he isn’t going to get a ton more shots, he doesn’t shoot trey’s and he isn’t going to rebound significantly higher; he’s at his ceiling, so, I don’t like this pick for Gator Bait.
10th Round
The 10th round was the 2nd best round (behind only the 4th) of the draft thus far! The Hoop Guru started things off with Tyson Etienne. I do think that Etienne can improve a little bit on his numbers, but, again, historically, Wichita State prefers balance. So, not a bad pick in that his numbers should improve, but, how much? Outstanding pick for the Psychos in Gavin Kensmill, who most definitely can get more looks and already averaged 21.3 fppg last season! Maize and Blue Bloods selected Montre Gipson does everything well, but, will he try to do more as far as putting shots up? If he does, I like this pick a lot; if he doesn’t, well, he’s a senior and an underclassman with an upside would have been better-that’s if he doesn’t attempt another 2 shots per game…interesting pick in Brandon Horvath by the Virginia Gentlemen. There’s no doubting his talent. Of course, he will be facing better comp at Utah State than he did at UMBC-still, all in all an interesting pick…Enrique Freeman is an even more interesting pick. Is he what he is-defender, rebounder, garbage man, or, does he have real upside as a player the team will begin to feed the ball to, etc., etc. 19.2 vs. 7.9 for a spread of +11.3 on just 103 fga’s is fascinating! Meaning, that whether it turns out to be good, bad, or, middling, I love this pick in the 10th round!!! Hoosiers get a real good one in Azuolas Tubelis. The Arizona big had an impact frosh season and still has plenty of ceiling (more shots, more treys, more boards all possible). Hillbilly found some gold in De’Torrion Ware, who put up 21 fppg. Amazing that he was still available! Fightin Reindeer are betting against the house in taking Emanuel Miller, who has transferred to TCU and one of the more prolific anti-offensive coaches in the country. Miller, if he had stayed at Texas A&M would be a very good pick and an outstanding pick to get in the 10th round. 21.8 fppg vs. 16.2 yields a +5.6 spread and he rebounds (8.2 rpg). Does he have any upside? No. He literally does not shoot the trey and he isn’t going to get a ton of shots at TCU. Can he continue to perform at his previous level in an offensive wasteland? Probably not, but that is the real question. I don’t know, but, because it’s the 10th round I like the pick for the Reindeer, I just don’t have a good feeling about it.
slow time for chatter so let me troll DVG and all his great work by posting this…
“Still, I can understand GB liking Liddell…I see his fppg going up this year, I just don’t see him becoming a 23+fppg player.”
He’s at 25.4 and is the 4th highest scoring Forward in MML 🙂
Ha! I actually never saw this reply GB, or I would have given you your props way back when.
I definitely whiffed on Liddell, who really ramped his game up.
You deserve all the kudos!