Sports

DVG’s NCAA DRAFT RECAP 2021-22

November 6, 2021
The Commish

A place for the David (Deep Valley Grouchos) to do his draft analysis of the NCAA League draft.

7 thoughts on “DVG’s NCAA DRAFT RECAP 2021-22”

  1. 2021-2022 NCAA Draft Analysis
    Just so you know, if you don’t already, I have a bias about freshmen being drafted with a team’s first pick. The exception being that the team picking first has 6 strong players in the other slots-of course, barring a trade, this is never the case…so, I don’t like the strategy as it is a self-inflicting tool to perpetuate a team’s mediocrity; in other words, teams that are drafting high need multiple free agents (FA’s) to get better. Passing on the limited number of FA’s who can really help a team begin the climb from the bottom depths of the league to take a freshman-who, will only be a one and done, is like committing suicide. That doesn’t mean that I don’t like the particular freshman being selected. It’s just that you can always get a good freshman at the end of the draft, and, certainly after the draft. But, there are a limited number of impact FA’s, although some more will emerge of course, during the season. ‘Nuff said. This post-draft analysis is done in the order of how the team’s drafted.

    This is Part I-the first 8 teams that drafted

    Gators
    As the worst team in the league last year, the Gators had the honor of drafting first. As the worst teams tend to do they took a freshman. And, of course, the freshman they took could very well be a one and done…in other words, it’s not a team-building philosophy. They followed that up by taking Kevin Obanor, who had a great fantasy season last year at Oral Roberts. Problem is, Obanor has transferred to Texas Tech. A lot of fantasy GM’s are still not realizing that the transfer “up” in class usually does not result in making for a 2nd consecutive strong fantasy showing. I’m rooting for that trend to not be the case here, but, needless to say, I think it’s doubtful that Obanor gets strong fantasy numbers during his brief stay in Lubbock. Kensmil, Holden, Jalen Moore, Lindo, Freeman, Kreuser, and, Andrew Taylor, among others were still on the board. Colin Castleton, a fair to good player but not a player with a high ceiling was their next pick. Freeman, Kreuser, Taylor, and Keegan Murray, among others, were still on the board. Tolu Smith is a great 7th round pick…if, you’ve had strong picks already; Smith is recovering from surgery, on his feet (foot surgeries are dicier than knees) and hopefully, will return at the end of November. Isaiah Wong was their pick in the 8th round. Wong may be ready to really be the man, so, wadda’ you know…I like this pick as a strong value pick…the value being that they waited until the 8th to snatch Wong. That was the last pick of the draft for the Gators. They will need to be strong players in the free agent (FA) market to not be picking first again in 2022.

    South Austin Horns
    Horns took Banchero…hmm…they must be loaded since he’s a one and done and won’t be back next year…but, what’s this? They may have taken the worst 2nd round pick ever (well, not really, but, considering who was still on the board) in Charles Pride (no relation to Charley), who can’t sing a lick! Good player, but, no upside…may as well have taken Charlie Brown. Does anybody want to bet they could have gotten Pride…whenever they wanted to? OK! They got a good player in the 3rd round in Kensmil. Another in the 4th in Lindo. Gerrale Gates is another one of those with okay stats/no upside guys. Not a bad pick if your team is talented at the starting spots but not a guy a weak-rostered team should pick for a starting position. Devante Jones will certainly see his numbers drop, having transferred “up” to Michigan. I’ve been waiting for Tyreke Key to be a really good fantasy player and the Horns decided they didn’t want to wait any more and selected him in the 8th. Now, surprisingly, after all that they took a freshman whom I think will turn out to be one of the best potential fantasy players (should do well as a frosh but great as a soph) in Tucker DeVries. Which begs the question: If they knew about DeVries, how could they make some of the picks they made? They wrapped it up with another freshmen. Despite the seeming harshness of my words, they didn’t take any terrible players, but, they passed up much better players who could’ve actually helped them-to take Price, Gates, and, Jones. If I was handing out grades they would be straddling that C+=/B- fence.

    The Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion
    Good start as they took the highest fantasy point per game (fppg) guard in the entire FA pool in Elijah Ford. Next, in the 3rd they snagged Cam Holden. Holden averaged 23.1 fppg with a +8.1 spread (fantasy average minus real scoring average) for UT Martin & has transferred to Towson. That is more of a “sideways” transfer so I’m bullish on Holden. They speculated on their next pick in going for LSU transfer Tari Eason. Eason has shown potential and has upside and is the type of player that a losing team should have added late in the season last year, looking forward. So, yes, he could be a bust, but, I like Eason’s ceiling. Enrique Freeman would have been a better pick, though. They got what should be a steal in the 7th, landing Kenneth Lofton from LA Tech. Andrew Taylor going in the 8th round, is, however, quite likely the steal of this particular draft. Taylor averaged 23.1 fppg in conference play for a spread of +8.3, meaning, he’s for real. This league has a lot of sharp GM’s-hard to believe they all missed on Taylor. I have mixed feelings about taking the soph center Andre Screen, but, more good than bad. He has the numbers that indicate room to bump up, and, he’s just a soph, but, he wasn’t the best center available. But, getting him in the 9th is a plus. Keegan Murray is going to be the man for Iowa this year, and, even if he falls short of being an outstanding fantasy player (say, if he averages under 22 fppg), he’s a tremendous pick in the 11th! Again, if asked prior to the draft I would have said he would never be on the board this late. They finished with Torrey Patton in the 13th. The 13th round is usually better served, IMHO, by taking a huge gamble and/or a freshman. Patton is a good player, not special, but, a good one to have, and, is a g/f. The Ghosts may have had the best draft of all (and, they needed it).

    Pirate’s Raiders
    Their draft puzzled me. Okay, they took the obligatory freshman in the first round, but, they didn’t have another pick until the 4th round. While they are obviously drafting 4th for a reason, they have a really good center and two good guards returning. In other words, they need just 3 starters (I don’t count the frosh slot, so, they were lacking 2 forwards and a 6th man for our purposes), and, they passed up one of the top 5 picks in the FA pool to take a “no help” freshman, by which I mean that it doesn’t matter what numbers Jabari Smith puts up, they can always find a good freshman and he intends to be a one and done guy. Then, in the 4th they take Darrion Trammell, who, besides probably having hit his ceiling is a guard. Now, yes the 6th man can be a guard or a forward but since they needed 2 forwards, how could they not select a forward?$#$%#^#&*&^%@$@ Then they take another freshman in the 6th!? No forward?! They took NO-HELP f/c Warren Williams in the 9th, a player they could very well wind up dropping when Darius Days, Keegan Murray, Torrey Patton were all available-and, in fact, Sukhmail Mathon-who, like Williams is a f/c was also available. WHY??? Of course, since they neglected to prioritize their main need (forward), they then got an average one (good as a sub, won’t impact) in Dwight Wilson. They then took another ok forward in Adrian Nelson to wrap it up, thereby securing the “We have no chance of winning everything this year, let’s blow it up and try, try again next year” trophy. Doing too much cannabis to check their roster needs pre-draft? Bah humbug!

    The Prodigal Son
    Freshman, natch. Their next pick wasn’t until the 6th round., so I don’t think that they were one player away from having a championship team and could afford to take the freshman, do you? So, in the 6th round they take the fabulous (sarcasm) Bodie Hume. You can get him in the bargain bin (10th round plus/FA pool). Jordan Miller, a transfer “up” to Miami-FL in the 7th; ho-hum…Enrique Freeman, Rocky Kreuser, Andrew Taylor still on the board…this is a one way train…they got a good backup center in the 11th in Myles Johnson…followed by another good backup center (but at least he has some upside) in Jamarion Sharp. Should I mention that taking Sharp gives them one stud center in Freemantle and 4 other guys who can play center? And then went out on a limb (over the Grand Canyon) and took a future actor, perhaps, in Blaise Beauchamp, or, Bruce Blasingame, or, Bartholmew Beauregard, whatever. If it mattered, I would spend the time to analyze who out-did each other for the least effective draft; Pirate’s of Penzance or the Problematical Son…

    Cal Bears
    It has to start getting better, doesn’t it? Yes, the Cal Bears GM (surprisingly, for a team from Berkeley) was not high as he had 2 centers on his team pre-draft, and DID NOT draft a center!!! Mazeltov baby!!! And by that I mean that his first pick, Grant Basile is listed as a f/c but is strong enough to be one of his starting forwards. Which also means that the Cal Bears want to at least try to win this year since they DID NOT take a freshman with their first pick! With what was on the board I wouldn’t have taken Keve Aluma with the next pick, but, he is a good player bordering on very good, so, I’ve got no problem with the pick. They took frosh Kendall Brown in the 4th. Meh, with their roster, not time to take a frosh yet, IMHO. And, a Baylor frosh doesn’t figure to get great fantasy stats. Another frosh with their next pick in the 7th, Ryan Nembhard will start and impact for Creighton but not for the Cal Bears fantasy team. I like Dawson Garcia in the 9th but not as much as say, Keegan Murray in the 9th. But, Garcia could wind up being one of UNC’s two primary scorers. If he starts to rebound better then this becomes a great pick. Frosh Andrew Morgan is a great pick in the 12th. His team is loaded up front, but he will play decent minutes as a freshman, likely put up good numbers as a soph, and, the likelihood is that he will be a 4 year college player who winds up on the fantasy basketball top 250 all time scorers list. They drafted well, as they can now trot out a lineup where each player averaged at least 20 fppg last season. They probably still need a freshman, of course…

    Tribe
    I often wonder, is this a Tribe called Quest? They always seem to be in quest of a good roster…okay, I think I found the team that had the least effective draft, based on the fact that they had 3 good starters pre-draft and only needed to get 3 more to compete for the championship. They have a stud forward in Eral Penn. They have “The Cockburn” at center, and a good forward in Jeenathan Williams. So, what do they do (I think they thought they could out-do both Pirate’s Raiders & The Prodigal Son in a 2021 drafting “death match”)? They take freshmen with their first two picks! Thank God they rebounded and snatched guard Jalen Moore in the 3rd! He had some real bad games and some real good games last year, fantasy-wise and I expect way fewer of those bad games and more of those real good games. He’s actually better than his fantasy average would suggest. Another freshman in the 7th so they can be the 3 Musketeers of freshmen? Elijah “cracked” Pepper doesn’t project (the numbers don’t lie) as an effective player. They took him in the 8th. I do like the highly speculative pick of Ebrima Dibba in the 9th. They finished out the draft playing that game show: “Know your programs.” I could be wrong, but I don’t see Dylan Disu approaching his Vandy numbers at the University of Transfer, er, Texas. KeyShawn Feazell does what he does and if he had not transferred to Creighton I would have loved him as a 13th round pick, but, alas, he did not. So, he will be okay. Disu should be okay too, but, extremely doubtful he will be an impact player.

    Boeheim’s Army
    Boeheim’s army consists almost soley of his sons, these days, which is why Syracuse is not the ‘Cuse these days…but, I digress. I did not like the fact they took a freshman center (frosh centers hardly ever put up numbers compared to the other positions) with their first pick. They did better in the 2nd round with g/f Eli Scott. E.J. Liddell looks like “fool’s gold” in a way to me, not a bad player at all, should get his 21 or so fppg, but, not a stud. He has the potential to be a stud, but statistically speaking, not much upside. There was better on the board, as far as probable/possible impact players. While he won’t help them much, I give Boeheim’s Army a pass for taking Buddy Boeheim in the 4th. I believe they got a better freshman in the 5th in Aminu Mohammed than they took in the 1st round. G/f Pedro Castro was definitely worth an 8th round pick but they could have had Andrew Taylor. At 6’10, 265, give or take a few Thanksgiving turkeys with all the trimmings they took D.J. Burns in the 12th round. He’s a 3rd year player who still doesn’t rebound the ball…’nuff said. A decent draft that could’ve been a great draft.

  3. 2021-2022 NCAA Draft Analysis
    Just so you know, if you don’t already, I have a bias about freshmen being drafted with a team’s first pick. The exception being that the team picking first has 6 strong players in the other slots-of course, barring a trade, this is never the case…so, I don’t like the strategy as it is a self-inflicting tool to perpetuate a team’s mediocrity; in other words, teams that are drafting high need multiple free agents (FA’s) to get better. Passing on the limited number of FA’s who can really help a team begin the climb from the bottom depths of the league to take a freshman-who, will only be a one and done, is like committing suicide. That doesn’t mean that I don’t like the particular freshman being selected. It’s just that you can always get a good freshman at the end of the draft, and, certainly after the draft. But, there are a limited number of impact FA’s, although some more will emerge of course, during the season. ‘Nuff said. This post-draft analysis is done in the order of how the team’s drafted.

    Part II

    Fore Sons And A Doctor
    I love the name of this team; evidently there is a “doctor in the house.” I would say that Fore Sons And A Doctor has long been one of the premier teams in the NCAA. 4 championships & 4 time runner-up, 4 times regular season champs supports that, as does the fact that they have the highest winning percentage of any team in the league. That’s their bonafidas. However, here they are, drafting in the middle of the pack and not at the back. So, what do they need? Actually, nothing but a freshman. They are loaded! They had two picks and took…2 frosh. Trevor Keels and Arthur Kaluma. I think they will have to go to the well for two more. Keels doesn’t figure to put up numbers this year and the way Creighton plays+who they have returning, while Kaluma will play a lot more than Keels will for Duke, I don’t think that Kaluma will be a quality fantasy frosh player for them. Score this 0-1 and a probable “no help.”

    The Walk Ons
    Interesting name. Is the GM himself a former walk-on and has an affinity for walk-ons like Ben Braun, the former Cal HC? They took a frosh in the 1st round. They took a “solid” pick in the 4th with Maizen Fausett. They circled back and took another freshman in the 6th-one I don’t think will do much for them this year. Brandon Horvath was an interesting pick in the 7th. He is transferring “up,” to Utah State. Horvath is a good player and I like him. To be honest, I’m not sure how he is going to do at Utah State. So, for now, I am neutral on this one. What doesn’t thrill me about him is that Enrique Freeman was the very next player picked…as was Kreuser and Andrew Taylor. Tyson Etienne in the 8th is a real good basketball player but I don’t think he’s going to be a real good fantasy basketball player. Montre Gipson in the 11th doesn’t figure to be much help. Horvath, Etienne, and, Gipson strike me as good bench players and not impact starters. Horvath has a good spread of +6.4 but only scored 13.8 at the school he was at. Etienne scored 16.3 ppg and his fantasy average was…16.3 fppg. He had a spread of zero. That’s not someone you draft. Gipson had an acceptable spread of 4.1 and will have to boost his scoring average from 15.3 ppg to around 20 ppg to raise his fantasy average.

    Albuquerque Chickenhawks
    The Chickenhawks are another traditionally strong franchise. They too, came into this draft, IMHO, with a set lineup-although not as potent a one as FS&AD, so, I can excuse them for selecting a frosh with their first rounder, although, they shouldn’t have. The AC’s didn’t draft again until the 6th when they took Mofo, er, Marfo, who was a stud fantasy player a couple of years back, transferred “up,” sucked, and is hoping to resurrect himself at his old school. I guess it’s worth a shot, but, again, Lofton, Freeman, Kreuser, Castro, A. Taylor, and Murray were all on the board. So, not a bad pick, but, it is kind of a “meh” pick at this point of the draft. They took Darius Days in the 10th, a decent pick, who could bump up his fppg average this year. A lackluster draft for the “Arizona” Chickenhawks.

    Hog Wild
    Frosh in the first round. The likely overrated John Meeks in the 2nd. I do like Meeks, but, despite his having the highest fppg average in the FA pool (only played about 7 games), he’s transferring up slightly in class and while I think he will be “the man,” I don’t know how that will play out exactly in the program he is now in. Maybe he will be a stud (25, 25+ fppg), maybe a real good player (23+fppg), a good player (22+fppg), or, a solid contributor. They only needed one forward to have a championship caliber starting lineup. I’m rooting for him, but, I have misgivings. They finished up with a solid 12th round get in Sukhmail Mathon, a f/c. The frosh is a talented one, so, this is a above average draft, especially considering they only had 3 picks.

    Leathernecks
    First pick a freshman. Next pick in the 6th, a freshman. Then they did what winning programs do and losing programs don’t…they got away with a steal in the 7th round with Enrique Freeman who should have been off the board by the end of the 3rd. I didn’t like this draft for the Leathernecks. They had a guard, a forward, and, a center going into this draft so I did not like them taking two frosh out of their 3 picks since they needed 3 quality starters. They could’ve found those 3 quality starters, then just used their “free” drops to get rid of the deadwood on their roster and get two good frosh. Picking up Freeman was huge for them. They also have some “fence-sitters” (guys who could bump up or may stay the same, fantasy average-wise) in Wahab, Harrison, Harper, Tshiebwe), so their roster isn’t in bad shape at all but they could’ve really used another elite player or two such as Ware, Holden, Moore, A. Taylor, etc., etc.

    T-N-T Youngsters
    T-N-T didn’t get to pick until the 3rd round. They took a little bit of a gamble (leaning strongly towards a good one) in taking Azuolas Tubelis, who has a new coach and a lot more good players around him this year. However, I would expect to see more of Arizona’s offense run through him and he should rebound it a little better. In the 5th they took another Wildcat in Bennedict Mathurin. Mathurin has a high upside. I have players grouped in tiers on my “research” page for fantasy basketball and I had him listed as a 1st tier prospect even though his spread is only 3.9. He has the highest upside on the Arizona team and all signs point to his scoring average going up considerably, and, his rebounds as well. This would be a good pick at any juncture of the draft and is a great one, I think, in the 5th round. T-N-T waited until the 8th round to go after a freshman and took a Top 100 frosh. Now, that in itself would normally mean less than nothing. But, since this particular frosh is going to be at Samford and is the highest-rated frosh recruit in the history of the program it counts for a lot, as in, the player has a lot of leverage. Whether or not he even starts is not the point. He will play and have an opportunity to produce immediately. Donovan Gregory is an “interesting” pick. His spread was 7.6. He only averaged 10.7 ppg. With a spread like that, if he can bump his scoring average up just 4 points, he’s a great get. The 11th, 12th, and 13th round picks are all “sketchy” ones. Guard Dashawn Davis has a lot of talent but comes to a team that has guards returning. Davis, IMHO, is the most talented of the Oregon State guards so it will be interesting to see how they integrate him, but, it looks like a longshot if they think he is going to be a 20+ fppg scorer. Washington needs something from Langston Wilson but I don’t think he’s going to do much of anything in terms of fantasy production-which is more a statement about the Washington HC’s player development ability than anything else. Washington State frosh Mouhamed Gueye is 6’10 and athletic and is stepping onto a roster with two, 6’10 sophs in front of him. So, I don’t expect to see any significant stats coming from him. If the Arizona duo pan out this is a great draft because T-N-T didn’t need to add all that much to its existing roster.

    Independent George
    Can’t stand ya’ Costanza? Independent George will never cease to exist because his two worlds will never collide. Another traditional powerhouse showed how to do it by bypassing the freshmen to pick De’Torrion Ware in the first round. That’s a strong pick! They took a freshman in the 2nd round. They gambled on Tulane soph Jaylen Forbes in the 6th. Gambled, because while he has talent, the numbers don’t support taking him this high. His spread of 1.3 when he already scores 16.4 ppg is not good. Took a freshman in the 7th…meh. Matt Bradley in the 11th. He had good numbers but not good fantasy numbers (minus 1.2 spread) at Cal and San Diego State is not a school I want to take a fantasy player from. Bradley is the worst player on his roster. Dillon Jones is a great 12th round pick. He could wind up being a bust, but, he had a great spread (6.2), and, he is a bit of a stat-stuffer. Getting him in the 12th-a real value pick is what makes me call it a great pick. I think Costanza still needs a freshman he can count on. So-so draft.

    Yoder Dame Fighting Amish
    So difficult to not say Fighting Irish-in fact, I actually wrote Irish down automatically. First round pick was A.J. Green, who, just needs to stay healthy. They took Taylor Funk in the 2nd. For some reason, Funk is underrated. They then took a freshman in the 3rd round. They took a good guard who’s going to get a lot of shots off in taking Scottie Pippen, Jr., in the 4th. They grabbed another frosh in the 6th. I loved seeing them take Rocky Kreuser in the 8th. He’s a steal because he figures to keep bumping his production up. Yet another freshman in the 9th. They weren’t stacked, so, taking 3 frosh works against them, but, they did add 3 starters in Green, Funk, and, Kreuser, and a potential starter in Pippen, so, overall, a pretty good draft.

  4. I don’t disagree with my last 3 picks analysis, as they were gambles on my side, in fact one them is already gone in Wilson. I’ll admit I was least prepared as I have in years for draft for many reasons but again I don’t disagree in overall assessment.

  5. Always insightful! Thanks DVG! I think my team has some potential with players getting settled into their rhythm and new teams however I need to consider some options during the draft that you mention. At this point in the season I am undefeated – as is everyone else!

    Here’s to eternal optimism, hoping everyone has a great season, and wishing all superior health and safety!

  6. Hi Leathernecks (Leatherneck turtles? Maryland fan?)! Well, Tshiebwe is a man on a mission. Out to make a statement, and, making it! While it’s doubtful he can keep getting 19 rebounds a game, he is certainly an impact player, so, check off one box. I liked Wahab going into the draft. The question isn’t him, but, how Maryland is going to use him. He’s going to be good, could be great. Turtle, or, terrapin on!

    1. Hi DVG, I liked Wahab to start the season as well. I think he can still be a contributor. As for Oscar, we can hope he continues to hustle. My WIU Leathernecks are 8-2 at this writing; a far cry from 15 new players and only 2 returners after the coaching change last year. I am hopeful this will be the year they make the big dance (fingers crossed). It is an interesting season with extreme movement and extensions on different players’ eligibiliy. I hope you have a great season and I will see you in the Big Tournament.

Leave a Reply