MML – Thru First 4-Weeks…

Digging Into The Data:

Teams listed in order of their seasonal playoff average through the first four weeks from first to last. Each week from 1st to 4th listed in order below the 4-week average.

1. Gator Bait: 165.3 & 7.2

170.5 & 7.0; 194.6 & 9.4; 144.1 & 6.3; 152.1 & 6.2

THE DATA SAYS: GB is a legit 160.0+ team, and I would expect to see mainly that number going forward. Throw out the 194.6 in week 2-although they are capable of doing that again. Likewise, the 144.1 from week 3 is an aberration. That may happen once more, but probably not more than that. They have a lot of heavy hitters who can boost up average or sub-par performances. And what underscores that are two stats. First, they are still the top rebounding team in the league, by far and their ability to rebound the ball will not change. When you have one of the two most important stats in the league going for you and some may argue the most important, it means consistency. The other stat is their spread. Their high playoff average is sustainable because of their “spread consistency.” Again, could they/will they have a week or even two where it dips below their current low week of 6.2? Probably. But that number is real because of their rebounding and because they have guys who get a lot of shots.

2. Deep Valley Grouchos: 154.0 & 5.01

127.5 & 3.0; 167.5 & 5.85; 146.5 & 5.6; 164.8 & 5.6

THE DATA SAYS: Well…I’m not waffling or being “cagey” because this is my team, but, the DVG data is more complicated although there are strong clues within it. Again, the 127.5 in the first week is an aberration. The DVG’s roster is top-heavy with three home run hitters, followed by two good players, but are one strong player short. Of course, they are capable of 160+ weeks but they really need their top players to play at peak levels (get their season averages or higher) to carry some average production at other lineup spots. This is a 145.0-150.0 team hoping to see an uptick to around 155 when conference play brings a lighter schedule to several of their players. To do that they need some of the “okay” guys who are getting 20-2- fppg to step it up in conference play.

3. Saluki YRD’s: 147.0 & 5.0

143.1 & 5.5; 164.6 & 5.1; 153.3 & 4.0; 127.0 & 5.4

THE DATA SAYS: The Saluki’s can be better than their current average, although I would slot them in the 145.0-150.0 range. I like them at 150.0, 150.0+ when they get their best lineup out there-which does not include Damian Dunn. They have upside. They have a strong best six and a good freshman. Their numbers (and remember that numbers will actually drop for most teams over the course of the season) show that they can be a 160.0 team. All of this actually means they are in better position, lineup-wise than the DVG’s going forward.

NOTE: Finished this whole thing, went on the site to view transactions and just saw that they dropped Damian Dunn. Hooray! Sessoms much better guard.

4. Sam Jacobson Went To Class: 140.2 & 5.2  

128.5 & 4.8; 144.0 & 5.36; 127.9 & 4.8; 160.5 & 5.94

THE DATA SAYS: Similar to the YRD’s, Sam will field a better lineup come playoff time. However, despite having as many as four players who should do better in conference play, I have doubts about him having enough players he can count on.  

5. North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: 138.2 & 5.8

151.5 & 5.5; 135.0 & 6.0; 139.5 & 5.9; 127.0 & 5.9

THE DATA SAYS: The Fightin’ Reindeer have a higher spread than all the teams above them except for GB. So, what’s up with that? Well, they have two studs, a semi-stud and a very good freshman. And, their other top players also have good numbers but have not been consistent performers. Which means that their ceiling is higher than what their average shows thus far. This is a 150.0, 150.0+ team waiting to bust out. Good upside with this team.

6. Hoosiers: 135.6 & 4.8

125.5 & 5.7; 127.3 & 2.28; 135.3 & 5.1; 154.5 & 6.1

THE DATA SAYS: They have five players who average 15 or more “real points” per game, which is fine, one is a freshman. So, really, it’s four. It’s hard to get good fantasy scoring (you can get good fantasy spreads, which they have except for week 2) when guys are not putting up 15 points or so per game in the real world. You can have guys who are scoring 12-14 points per game in the real world if they are also bagging at least 10 boards with 3 of those being offensive boards…but, they don’t have that. So, despite their frontline strength (which is impressive considering that they don’t have Aimaq, that Oduro has been MIA until this past week, and Asadullah totally sucks-but Gates is finally playing like people have been thinking he would for 3 years now!) they only have one guard in Spencer, and, his numbers will go down in conference play. They just don’t have enough firepower. They have a nice team. Nice boys. But their Colt 45’s are not standing up against those Magnum 357’s. All of that means they can be a 140.0 team as currently constructed.

7. Maize & Blue Bloods: 133.9 & 5.5  

THE DATA SAYS: They have seven, that’s 7! Players on the roster who currently average 25.0 or more. That’s 7 studs! But six of them don’t play guard, so, only four of those six can be in the lineup. Which does mean they have great depth, but guard is an issue. Not a huge issue at all, but, Kendric Davis is “only” averaging 20.1 and only has a positive spread of 0.8-which means a lot of feast and famine nights with him. Funk, Roberts, and, Omier should probably play every damn game they can come playoffs. Kinsey is back to form and takes one guard spot. I would probably play Scheierman over Davis. And, certainly over Clark, who doesn’t normally score and will be seeing that 25+fppg average he had when the M&BB picked him up plummet. They have a good freshman. So, right now, it’s been a lineup issue due to the priority of chasing games to get the most points each week. They are loaded. And, ceiling-wise higher on the ladder than the YRD’s. I think they’re the 2nd best team in the league and the team that matches up the best with Gator Bait as off the top of my head they have the best frontline trio in the MML. So, in their case, the 133.9 is totally mis-leading once we delve into ALL their numbers.

8. Hardwood Heroes: 132.9 & 4.2

128.5 & 4.5; 133.3 & 2.64; 147.4 & 4.8; 122.5 & 5.0

THE DATA SAYS: You can’t win with three players. It’s that simple. Their average tells you what they are NOT GETTING from players not named Williams, Castelton, or, Filipowski. They recently picked up Ashworth, and, maybe he will help, but, his early season numbers don’t look sustainable. A 6’1 guard who doesn’t rebound and is currently shooting 58.1 from the field and 56.3 from behind the arc is something that has never been seen…and I don’t expect to see him continue to hit those percentages, even if he turns out to be the greatest perimeter shooter of all time. So, let’s say his current 27.2 fppg average drops down to 22.0 (I’ll be generous since he is a good player), the next best guard on the roster averages 16.4 fppg and that needle won’t be moving up much, if at all. The question is if B.J. Mack can raise his production in conference. You know, he entered the draft this past year (didn’t get an agent) and came back. So, you would think he would be inspired to rebound the ball, something he didn’t do that much of for a man of his size and position in the past. But, nope, he is proving what I have always said: Guys do what they do. And, what Mack does is get 5.9 rebounds a game. However, he certainly could score more in conference. If his 19.3 fppg goes up to 22.3 fppg and HH finds a good guard, they can be one of those teams below GB & M&BB.

9. House of Sparky: 130.5 & 5.2

133.8 & 7.2; 147.8 & 5.7; 106.5 & 4.0; 134.0 & 3.93

THE DATA SAYS: They just don’t have any playoff upside. When Bates & Jaquez are your top two offensive players (both at just 22+) you’re toast. Nobody likes to hear that but they need to make moves for next year, now.

10. Vindaloos: 130.3 & 6.1

100.5 & 4.7; 140.6 & 7.46; 137.0 & 6.26; 143.0 & 5.9

THE DATA SAYS: First off, hopefully, the Darrion Trammell experiment is done with. Dude is not a good fantasy player. Now that I have gotten that off my chest, let me say that like a few teams profiled above, the Vindaloos are way better than their current average suggests. Throw out the first week, which again, is obviously, an aberration and they are a 140.0 team not a 130.0 team. They didn’t always have Tshiebwe, they played Trammell, Ike was not in the lineup, they didn’t have a good freshman, and Sparks was MIA. Going forward I expect to see their numbers rise, although I think the addition of Luc doesn’t help them at all. They desperately need a guard. They can’t be a 150.0+ team without one. With one, they can be one of the top teams not named Gator Bait.

11. Psychos: 128.9 & 4.2  

112.5 & 2.7; 128.3 & 3.93; 145.3 & 3.8; 129.5 & 6.2

THE DATA SAYS: One could say in looking at their roster that like Kanye (Ye) they are bi-polar. They’ve got, IMHO, the top freshman (and I thought so pre-draft) in Miller. At center, Cohen is averaging 26+ fppg. Two pretty consistent forwards in Wilson & Nunge. But they’re best guard is recent add Bothwell, who has been fool’s gold in the past and the rest of their guards stink like fish left out on the porch for a week. So, they’ve got a few really good guys and a lot of bums, hence, the bi-polar comment. With a couple of good moves, they can get to be a 140.0 team but that’s pretty much it.

12. Prozac Pups: 123.8 & 5.0  

142.5 & 7.1; 107.8 & 4.3; 114.5 & 4.1; 130.7 & 4.7

THE DATA SAYS: Why is it that guys don’t know how to determine what makes a guard a good add or not? This is like a disease running through most of the league. What could have possessed Prozac to add Fernandes & Jones? But I digress-in a way. They’ve got Jake Stephens and that’s it. They won’t do it, but I would see what I could get for Stephens in the way of a multiple player & upgraded draft pick package and get ready for next year. They are dead in the water.

13. KC Warthogs: 114.6 & 4.7

107.5 & 5.5; 94.2 & 2.6; 128.8 & 5.7; 128.1 & 5.1

THE DATA SAYS: I have to applaud KC for trying. I wouldn’t have had his patience but he finally kicked Jalen Moore to the curb for Dae Dae Grant. No matter what Grant does it will be better than what Moore did. Ditto for Harrison Ingram. A bum. Not much of a sample on Derrick Walker and his last game was scary bad, but he is a brute, and, again, will be an improvement over Ingram. So, after all that, can they make a move? The stats say no way, Jose Cuervo. They have the top center not named Tshiebwe (or maybe the best center) in Edey. But Walker & Grant’s fantasy averages will be closer to 20-22 than their current 25+. And, except for the freshman, Black, they just have to many average players. Again, like Prozac, I would deal Edey-who’s not coming back next year, and try to build a little underclassman base.

14. Hillbilly Maulers: 111.9 & 3.85

102.5 & 2.5; 132.0 & 5.58; 109.1 & 4.1; 104.0 & 3.25

THE DATA SAYS: They got bacon & eggs (Bacot & Shumate) but no potatoes, no toast, and, no OJ to wash it down. With both of those guys being seniors and nothing promising on the roster, they NEED to do something with their top two performers in the trade market. One of the three lowest teams in the league in terms of fga’s. Their numbers are for real.

15. The Hoop Guru: 103.9 & 3.2

94.0 & 3.3; 130.5 & 4.07; 86.4 & 1.5; 104.6 & 4.0

THE DATA SAYS: They are quite possibly the least talented team in the MML this year. Their top seven scorers are all seniors. None are studs, statistically, with two having good averages and the third have an okay/mediocre average for a starter. That is not promising and they have nothing in the oven. In this case, having by far the worst spread in the league only validates this. One of the three lowest teams in the league in getting shots up. This is truly a blow it up team and start from scratch. Find freshmen (who figure to stay around long enough to be sophs) and sophs.

16. Virginia Gentlemen: 98.1 & 4.5

121.5 & 5.1; 82.3 & 4.18; 60.1 & 2.25; 128.6 & 6.4

THE DATA SAYS: That VG is perhaps the most interesting team listed because of their last place position relative to their talent base. It just hasn’t all been together yet. They just added Ballo, one of the top two FA centers and he has been extraordinarily consistent, getting 25-30 fppg every time out. They also added f/c Tolu Smith, 24+fppg thank you very much. They just got f/c Jordan Minor back from the IR, he was one of the elite FA’s in the draft. Malik Miller has been pretty darn good at guard. The other guard is still a question mark. I thought they added Washington prematurely based on two big games, and, he’s been way, way under that since. And they just added guard Jalen Pickett. I have history with Pickett. He doesn’t shoot it well, but, he has been killing it against a weak schedule. The Big Ten schedule will be much tougher, so, I think he has the potential to go down considerably. If I were VG, I would be searching hard for another guard and/or (heavens forbid!) a trading partner. They can afford to deal either Hawkins or Dillon Jones for a guard. And, they still need a freshman. If Pickett stays around 22 fppg, and, they get a freshman, they can join that strong group of teams not named Gator Bait. Up to now they are last in the league in fga’s. They will not be 16th on this list after the 11th week stats have been compiled.

Summation: Yes, the stats can sometimes hide things. Yes, stats can be manipulated…but, only if somebody is trying to do so. In the above information, simply put, the stats don’t lie. The 4-week averages show the three teams at the bottom in the Hillbilly Maulers, The Hoop Guru, and, the Virginia Gentlemen as getting up the fewest field goal attempts in the league, and, is one of two stats that directly correlates to their current status-the exception being that the stats and circumstances also show that VG will be rising while the other two teams will not. On the other hand, Gator Bait, Sam Jacobson Went To Class, Deep Valley Grouchos, and the Saluki YRD’s, the top four rebounding teams are also currently the top four teams average-wise through 4 weeks. The Hardwood Heroes are high in both rebounding and fga’s. That means they have some potential to move up. However, they are shooting poorly from both inside & outside the arc, and, their spread is worrisome-so, it’s a standoff, which means while change in those areas can occur from players currently on the roster (either positive or negative), they will probably need new players to address those problems significantly. Maize & Blue Bloods has been shooting the ball exceptionally well but have been a poor rebounding team. They just addressed that with two pickups and will be rising. It’s all there in the stats.