Does anything mean anything after 8 weeks of play? Well, yes. But you must be a little bit of a fantasy basketball archaeologist, which means, while the stats are all there on the surface, you must dig deeper to get to the facts that those stats contain. For, the most part, there are recognizable trends. Most of these trends are set and will not change much as far as how the teams are going to perform. The Hardwood Heroes have recently shown that it is possible to wait until late in the season to make some moves that turned out to be impact moves and changed the entire arc of their fortunes, but that was/is an aberration. I do not mean that HH does not have GM skills, I just mean that not only are there not a high number of impact players left just before conference play, but, that a lot of the higher scoring (fantasy averages) players left in the FA pool will have trouble sustaining what you see. In other words, while there may be a gem or two hanging around, the most valuable diamonds have been mined. So, we have what I call “tiers,” forming among the teams. Of course, there will be movement among these tiers. Certain players underperforming, some over-performing, some players emerging, some players injured, conference play raising and/or lowering averages, etc., etc. I am listing these tiers in order of best to lowest. NOTE: I used the highest 6 scorers that would comprise a lineup plus the top scoring freshman to compute the lineup averages below. I did not use numbers from what I think a team’s best lineup would be.
1st Tier: On An Island>Gator Bait (GB)
Gator Bait has been my top team since before the draft and nothing they have done since has changed my opinion that they are the team to beat. They do not have a weakness, only the normal “concerns” that any team would have regarding possible lineup/positional vulnerability. And, that concern is not much of one, that being who can they count on when they reach the semi and then the final round to give them the best guard play opposite of Podziemski? Remember, I said “a concern,” not a worry. After all, they have Abmas and Pride to choose from. Abmas is not scoring as much as in the past but has rebounded to be more consistent and has a better spread (and is now trending UP!). Pride is still explosive but the addition of a transfer to his team+a few more fga’s from other players mean that he is more up and down than he was a year ago, although his spread is still excellent. GB not only has the best lineup, but they are the only team, I repeat, the ONLY team with quality depth (not just decent bodies). They can sustain an injury, a shooting slump, a bad schedule to any position and plug in a quality player. In other words, they truly have an all-star team, fantasy-wise. They can kill you with either freshman and, while I myself would try to never do it, they would be about as strong if they started two freshmen instead of just one. Now, that’s championship-level flexibility a yoga master would be proud to have. Stat-wise, they are the most consistent team in the league, as they have had only one week where they scored less 307 points and that was a not too shabby 289. They can trot out a lineup that averages 179.4!
Strong Challengers>Deep Valley Grouchos (DVG’s) & Virginia Gentlemen
The DVG’s made a KABOOM! Move, when they executed a trade. Now, since this league averages maybe one trade a year, every trade, great or small, is a Kaboom in a sense, but this was a huge one, making it a KABOOM! They parted with some of their future, including an anchor player at center next year, but were able to acquire Bacote and Liddell. Liddell was not playing at the beginning of the season as was therefore, under the radar. He has so far shown himself to be a rebounder in the Tshiebwe plateau (in fact, as you read this, he currently is averaging over a rebound more per game than Tshiebwe). Both are fantasy studs (players who average 25+ fppg), and, as such, are tough to come by. Adding two, therefore, equates to a neutron bomb kaboom. And, while they hated to do it, they wanted some security at the guard position-in looking at the playoff schedule and added Myron Gardner, who is averaging just under 24 fppg. Their just-renovated lineup checks in at 174.0.
As you can see, at 167.2, The Virginia Gentlemen are not the red-headed stepchildren (apologies to any redheads or people of the “auburn” colored persuasion) of the league. They may have the best starting guard combo in the league. Center is solid+ w/Ballo. The forwards are surprisingly, just solidly good, for the most part. I say surprisingly because that is the highest scoring position in our game and those guys are easier to find and acquire. But they do have two “wildcards” in Jordan Minor (looking to regain his pre-injury form) and Dillon Jones, who has a good history and may be able to bump up a little. At the frosh position they just picked up their own Clingan (exciting for any Star Trek fans, I know!), but, while his fantasy production is great, sometimes he only gets a few measly minutes…I do not know why. However, Bona is coming on. I used Clingan’s fppg average for this lineup since he is higher, but Bona may be their guy…In any event, this is a “good problem” to have, starting lineup-wise…The VG’s are trending…UP!
2nd Tier-in alphabetical order/On Their Best Day…Maybe: Maize and Blue Bloods, North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer.
There is plenty to like about these two teams. And this is where you must get out your “statistical shovels” and dig a little bit to make out the facts hidden behind the stats. M&BB are way better than their current record indicates as they can put out a great 6-man lineup and a top 5 freshman scorer. Lineup-wise, they have been chasing points like all of us and their explosiveness has not been on display that much. But they are trending up. After getting 172 & 223 points in weeks 4 & 5, they moved up to 269, 271 & 278 in weeks 6-8, and week 8 was a tough week for every MML team except of course, for GB. Their top lineup puts up 163.0.
NPFR’s lineup is not as strong as M&BB, although their average is basically the same at 163.1-which is outstanding, but within those lineup averages, there are a couple of fissures, and, they do not have any quality depth to go to. I would think that at the forward slot opposite Burton, that Coulibaly would do even better come conference play. But he is often a little too passive (not getting himself enough fga’s) and, therefore, while not erratic from week to week, he will have a few curiously, weak games. On the plus side, Eric Williams is looking like the pre-Oregon/Duquesne Eric Williams although he will have to navigate both Gonzaga & St. Mary’s defensive schemes in conference play.
3rd Tier-Hoping To Get Their Foot In The Door: Hoosiers, Psychos
The Hoosiers (161.7) should be one of the second-tier teams listed in this piece. The reason they are not is that it is obvious that their GM hates guards. Hates them so much, that he only takes enough to field a complete lineup with a guard or two on the roster should an injury occur. AND I am FREAKING SERIOUS! Nothing else could explain why year after year after year the GM refuses to look at their guards and get an impact guard during say, the first four weeks of the season when you can still get one. So, you can see that he really thinks that they do not need no stinkin’ guards! They have survived the loss of Aimaq and the incredible decline of the “odorous” Oduro and can still field a way more than respectable lineup.
POST-SCRIPT: The Hoosiers added a guard! Whoop-tee-doo! Of course, they did not add either of the top two FA guards available at the time. Of course, they do not know anything about guards…In a serious vein, with the strength of the forward, center & 6th man slots they field a very dangerous team. They are here because those four slots must max or perform better than their max vs. the top playoff lineups to have a shot at going all the way.
Psychos are intriguing (again, I am talking about the team and not the mental disease). They average 164.6. Josh Cohen, who was known as a good player already (Gator Bait had him at one point), has exploded into a 27.9 fppg stud! They got the top freshman in Brandon Miller-who is also 25+. The guard group is just okay and needs to continue to be carried by Bothwell (has a history of inconsistency, however), who is having his best fantasy season by far, thus far (cannot have too many “far’s” in a sentence). The uncertainty of their guard room & what Castaneda & Appleby will do night in and night outweighs heavy against their impressive lineup average. Nunge & Wilson are good fantasy forwards. So, no real weakness, just not enough heavy hitters. If, as mentioned above, their top players have a little dip (every team will see their lineup average go down, based on the history) is there is anybody else on the roster whose average will rise significantly in conference play, ergo, that is why they are in this category. How often does a team catch lightning in a bottle? For Four consecutive playoff games? Not likely. Still, they have a dangerous lineup-as you may have noted that their lineup average is higher than the two teams in the tier above them.
4th Tier-All or Nothing (all these teams can scare opponents if their players are on their game): Hardwood Heroes, Saluki YRD’s, Vindaloos
Once again, I must praise HH (“I come to praise Caesar, not to bury him”), who has been in the final 3 consecutive years, using pretty much the same formula, which, if this were a magic act, I would say has consisted primarily of pulling a rabbit out of his hat. By that I do not mean he is a poor analyst. His M.O. pretty much being to wait, wait, and wait, and, then make roster additions late in the season (not so good). It’s worked out pretty well for him so far and those same type of prospects are still floating around the FA pool, but I do not see that going particularly well this year. I did love the addition of Hunter Tyson. His guard group is what is holding him back. He’s tried but did not add the top FA guard & could have had what he needed if he had pulled the trigger earlier. None of his guard’s suck, they are erratic, but worse, they can have huge swings between highs and lows. His current best lineup produces 155.7. Any way you slice it he must conservatively make up 12-15 fppg minimum to be in the championship conversation. While, as I stated earlier, all the teams will see some slippages come January, the margin, between teams usually does not change significantly.
@153.5, the YRD’s lineup average is certainly good. But, since that is about 10 fantasy points per game less as far as the 2nd tier teams average & 20+ fewer than GB & the DVG’s, they cannot truly be considered “party crashers,” However, they do have much better depth than NPFR, and I do not think there will be all that much “slippage,” (a drop in their current player scoring averages) from their lineup. That makes them formidable, and a “dark horse” of sorts. They need to truly manage their lineup well (make the proper selections) come playoffs. If they do that, and their top people perform to their level, they could, with some underperformances from opposition players be a pesky foe.
The Vindaloos have to be my biggest disappointment, as far as pre-season prognosticating goes. However, that could change once we get out of December. They can currently field a lineup that averages 157.6. They just bolstered their lineup with the addition of g/f Tytan Anderson. I do think they still have a major freshman problem. Any team that has a Tshiebwe will always be in the mix. They are one player away from being no worse than 2nd tier.
5th Tier-(? And The Mysterians* Decent teams that will not reach the final unless they buy a ticket): Hillbilly Maulers, KC Warthogs, Prozac Pups
*Just so you know,? And The Mysterians (spoken out loud as “question mark & the Mysterians”) did a song I loved when I was a teen, called “99 tears.” It just popped into my head, so, here it is. I would rather be listed in this tier as one of the ? And The Mysterians than Mystery Meat, wouldn’t you? This grouping is comprised of the Hillbilly Maulers, Prozac Pups, and Sam Jacobson Went To Class (when will he ever matriculate?).
Hillbilly, of course, was the other team involved in the trade w/the DVG’s (it takes two to kaboom) and it will help them next season but will not make enough of a ripple with the current roster. They can put out a lineup (sans freshman) of 21+fppg players, but just do not have enough firepower at 149.4. If Hinson stays in school, they have 5 good players coming back next year and they would have a good shot at putting together a team that can move the needle.
KC has the top fantasy player in Zach Edey, at an incredible 36.1. Again, Big Ten play will impact that, but it is hard to see him getting less than 30.0. Behind him they are respectable. But respectable is not good in fantasy basketball. Nasty is good and they got no nasty to partner up with Edey. 153.4 is a nice number. If you are focused on what you have read already, you are probably saying that number should have them up at the 4th tier. But Edey will dip a little, Walker & Key will be hard-pressed to maintain what they have been doing, and the guards are just okay. They may get a rise from frosh Anthony Black (a pat on the back to myself for calling him the best of the Arkansas frosh way back when), whose role will have to increase-but, how much. Same old, same old. They are at their ceiling and what cannot continue to go up must drift down…
At 153.4, Prozac has some promise, er, I mean the team and not the drug (the drug is proven). He has a stud in Jake Stephens. And, he has 3 other good frontline/6th man people. Knecht is interesting. Vescovi, @16.8 fppg, must go. And, while he may be in love with frosh Dillon Mitchell (I do not know, looking at this league I must think that a lot of GMs have freshman crushes), that position is not a winner for him. So, to paraphrase Jack Nicholson’s incredibly incisive rant about God & women from the “Witches of Eastwick,” freshmen, did he just make a mistake, or did he do it to us on purpose!!! He could make those two moves and improve maybe 8 fppg…maybe…
Basement Tier-(In Statistical Purgatory…Of Course, Every Dog Does Have His One Day): House of Sparky, Sam Jacobson Went To Class, and The Hoop Guru
House of Sparky (I always want to say House of Spanky for some reason) fields a lineup that averages 146.6. There is no upside to this group. Each of their players is performing at about their max. He is obviously not a “spread afficionado” as there are five non-productive players with poor spreads dotting his roster.
Sam Jacobson Went To Class (146.7) Mostafa is a quality fantasy player. Everybody else in the starting lineup is okay, w/the usual question marks and he has a good freshman. But, again, their lineup is operating at about it is max and there is no scoring upside for them.
Oh boy…The Hoop Guru…sigh…This is a case where ownership must believe that the GM is some sort of “boy wonder,” or, genius, or something. Statistically, they have one guard who averages more than 14.9, at 20.8, a very inconsistent 20.8, but 20.8, regardless. That 14.9 belongs to a freshman, which is okay, in and of itself, but he is the only freshman on the roster-so, he cannot even be the 2nd guard! He has 10 players that can play forward and only 4 that can play guard-including the freshman, which means he only has 3 guards! 145.2 is the number. HG just made 6 moves in one day, and added 4 forwards, 1 freshman, and 1 guard! What the hell! Fire the freaking GM!!! He has only one player on the roster (3 underclassmen total) who can help him next year. If anybody should be looking to trade for some decent underclassmen, it is this team. But, NO!!!!!! (Apologies to the late John Belushi), they are going to be “cratered out” and trying to do it all through the draft next year…not feasible.