I really like the NCAA league, so, I follow it. I am going to try and avoid analyzing any freshmen that were picked, since nobody (including myself) really knows how they are going to work out, although I must say that due to past research I think I have a pretty good track record of sussing out who is going to be a good (15 fantasy points per game, or, fppg) fantasy freshman or not. I am going to go team by team, following the order of the draft.
In order of drafting position (great/good picks marked with an asterisk* in front of player’s name):
Gators
1st round: Freshman
2nd round: Essam Mostafa. Like the player, don’t like the program as far as being offensively friendly. So, no asterisk here.
3rd round: *Chris Ledlum. I was uncertain about the amount of jacks Ledlum would get in transferring to St. John’s. Well, I must admit that I am cheating here as I saw the box score of their first game, and it appears that he will impact for the Johnnies.
4th round: *Fousseyni Traore. We are besieged by Traores this year. However, it appears that all of them can play. This is a solid pick.
5th round: Dalton Knecht. I am going to stay on the so-so fence for this one despite Knecht’s impressive start with the Vols. Vescovi missed a game due to some personal reason and while he played when he came back, he wasn’t yet the Vescovi that he will be when he gets back into rhythm. Also, Zakai Ziegler is being eased back into game minutes. So, Knecht is going to play and for Tennessee he is going to be important. But with 4 returning guards who are all going to be counted on, how many shooting opportunities will he have going forward-and that is the basic value of Knecht. So, not a bad pick, definitely an okay pick, but I can’t say the good word, yet.
8th round: Riley Kugel. While not a transfer, there is some similarity to the Knecht situation. Florida brought in two, high scoring transfer guards. I think Kugel will definitely be an important player for Florida this year, and probably their leading scorer but I’m still not sure that makes him a really good fantasy get. However, getting Kugel in the 8th round is like getting Matzoh ball soup in the 9th…it’s a bargain.
11th round: Freshman
12th round: Freshman
Total picks=8
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable/So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: There’s a reason the Gators picked first. They weren’t good enough to even pick second. So, not only do they take a freshman first, but, with all the free agents (FA’s) who could impact their team, do they get…even…one? Maybe, in Ludlum-and he was taken after wasting a pick on. Mostafa That’s not enough. I’ll be generous and give them a “C-.” That’s the equivalent of getting complementary bagel chips with your matzoh ball soup and it’s the best I can do.
The Walk Ons
1st round: I have a question…Is Jordan Minor the worst 1st pick EVER?! Without doing the research it has to in the top 3 worst. You know, although they are walk-ons, I would expect them to understand that they have to play against scholarship players and draft accordingly. Minor signed his fantasy basketball death warrant the day he transferred into Virginia. Not an auspicious start.
2nd round: Nice rebound with *Tyler Kolek, one of 5 impact FA guards available. Way to wash down that vinegar with some lemonade.
3rd round: Okay, here is today’s fantasy basketball double jeopardy question: What in the hell is Payton Sparks going to do at Indiana? Taking guys who transfer up is not the smartest move and when you look at the all-world freshman they have, the kid from Oregon, and a returnee they are high on. Re-think the strategy as far as taking transfers. Most of these guys who transfer up are going to come crashing down.
4th round: Freshman.
8th round: Freshman
12th round: Freshman
Total picks=6
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 0
Questionable So-So picks:
Bad/poor picks: 2
ANALYSIS: I think I understand why the drafted the way they did. They are “tanking” ahead of time so they can draft 1st next year! They had to disguise it, so they took Kolek. The crazy thing is they return Omier, one of the premier fantasy players & Omoruyi-a quality starting center. So, they had a good base to build on…Doh! Due to Kolek they manage a “D-.”
Pirate’s Raiders
1st round: Freshman.
5th round: Eric Dixon. Well, while it’s been a great program, fantasy-wise, it’s not where you go. Dixon is a good player, and an okay fantasy player who is not going to move the needle since Villanova generally defines what team basketball is and they have loaded up with players who can score. No help.
6th round: Freshman
8th round: Jay Pal…Jay Pal! Maybe the worst 8th round pick…EVER! ‘Nuff said. If you were at a bakery, you would get the hole in the bagel. Not the dough they removed to make the hole in the bagel, just the hole…which obviously is imaginary, just as it’s being imaginary to think that Jay Pal will help you win a single fantasy game.
9th round: Tyler Burton (see Dixon above).
10th round: Marcus Domask. Hmm, I wonder what his role is going to be at Illinois (sarcasm)…I did like the freshmen they took but they are not part of the grade, and their first-round frosh pick will be a one and done anyway. Transfers will be the death of Pirate’s Raiders, unless he makes all of the suck wads on the roster walk the plank.
12th round: Javon Small.
Total picks=7
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 0
Questionable So-So picks: 3
Bad/poor picks: 2
ANALYSIS: We have a “tanking” battle going on between The Walk Ons and Pirate’s Raiders! “F” for the poofy pirate blouses they have to wear…
Tribe
1st round: Freshman.
2nd round: *Ben Krikke, a good solid pick who should have a good year playing for a HC who understands offense.
4th round: Freshman.
5th round: Freshman
6th round: *Terrence Shannon. Another good pick. Not earth-shattering, but a decent pick.
7th round: Terrence Edwards. Again, having seen the first box score, he may work out, but his numbers for being a fantasy force didn’t add up despite the pre-season accolades he has received. Going to upgrade him here to an average/okay pick.
10th round: Rienk Mast. I liked Mast coming into Nebraska, but the jury is still out on him.
Total picks=7
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 0
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: With Ike & Shumate returning I don’t understand this draft. Their first two freshmen are both one and dones and they left impact FAs on the board. “C+” because of the freshmen but because they won’t be around next year it’s really more like a c-.
Hog Wild
1st round: Freshman.
2nd round: There seems to be a drafting fascination this year with Keegan Records, a decent player with seemingly no upside.
4th round: Sherif Gross-Bullock. Wow…this is a high-volume guy who is also a negative spread guy. In other words, he has to score about 25 real points to maybe get 16 fantasy points. Now, there are maybe 2-3 guys like this available each year who are a great late round get. It’s just that IMHO, Gross-Bullock is not one of them. He will “tease” you once in a while with a good game and then revert to who he is.
5th round: Kevin Coleman is not a bad player. But, as a non-starter for UAB, trust me, you could’ve waited, see what happens with him and always add him, post-draft. Believe me, Kevin Coleman is not the name on everybody’s mind during the draft.
6th round: Frankie Policelli is not my cup of tea, looking at his stats at his previous school, and he’s not a bad pick. But he’s not going to make Hog Wild significantly better. He’s a bench player, added for depth on a good fantasy team.
7th round: *Riley Minix. Finally, a pick who may be able to make Hog Wild better. It’s early, but Minix should be given the opportunity to lead Morehead State.
8th round: *Tyler Thomas. What’s this? A drafting rally by HW? Whoa, two good picks in a row.
9th round: Phillip Russell. Oh well, back to the manure pile…
10th round: Prophet Johnson. I don’t think that this prophet can lead Hog Wild back to the promised land of +.500 fantasy ball…
11th round: Alexis Yetna. Eons ago, when Yetna was at South Florida, this would’ve been a “yeah!” but now, it’s just another reach…
12th round: Osborn Shema. Shema may be worth a shot in the 12th, but, again, if you like him, just wait, and see what he does and then add him post-draft.
13th round: Freshman.
Total picks=12
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 3
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 4
ANALYSIS: With 12 picks and all the opportunity in the world to upgrade, they didn’t. So, a “D.” is what they get. Remember that they passed on Daniels, L. Traore, Dante, McFarlane, Sharp, Kolek, Brandon Johnson, and McCullar, among others…ouch!
Boeheim’s Army
1st round: Freshman.
2nd round: Freshman.
3rd round: Jaelen House. No help.
4th round: Judah Mintz. Of course, they have to take a Syracuse player. Mintz, who was a negative spread guy last year, may do better this year. I don’t think that he is going to be much help even if he does have a former Syracuse star guard coaching him.
5th round: Jacob Ognacevic. He is an interesting player. If he could just rebound, he would have a chance to be a fantasy player that could really help a team.
6th round: Trey Calvin. He could get 20 fppg, but that’s his max, and he’s not much of a spread guy. With Noel getting more looks this year and Holden transferring back in, this is more of a “meh” pick.
11th round: Trevon Brazile. Probably the biggest disappointment in all of fantasy basketball so far, as he has everything one would want in a stud (25+fppg), but he just isn’t that dude.
12th round: Boogie Ellis. Collier may help make things easier for him but… (see House).
Total picks=8
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 5
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: I have never, ever, seen such an average & boring draft. Boeheim took nobody who can make a significant impact, he didn’t take any interesting high-potential guys in the late rounds. “D.”
Yoder Dame Fighting Amish
1st round: *Clarence Daniels. Finally, a “player” was taken. An impact player.
2nd round: Freshman.
4th round: *Matt Rogers…could go off this season. That’s not a sure thing but I like this pick.
5th round: Kellen Tynes…Kellen Tynes? This is the first drop of the season.
7th round: Jordan Johnson…Will the next drop of the season come on down!
8th round: Christian Ray, at best, is a no help and should also be dropped.
10th round: Freshman.
11th round: Chris Youngblood. He got a bazillion fga’s, was the man, etc., etc., at Kennesaw State. There’s no “upside blood” left in this turnip. A no help.
12th round: Gabe McGlothan. Let’s take a guy known for his defense. Wait, there’s no points given in fantasy basketball for defensive prowess? That’s like Rick in Casablanca saying he came to Casablanca for the waters and then, when told that they’re in a desert, says” I was misinformed.” With Grant-Foster & Harrison taking all the shots, what’s left for McGlothan? Nada mucho…no help and another drop.
13th round: Michael Moreno. Very nice college player who can shoot it, but doesn’t rebound it….and, can’t help.
Total picks=10
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 2
Bad/poor picks: 2
ANALYSIS: The theme for the Fighting Amish is to help those who cannot help them by adding them to the roster. Daniel & Rogers overcome all that to get them a “C.”
Independent George
2nd round: Freshman.
3rd round: Freshman.
4th round: Johnell Davis. Oy vey! With what’s available? IG is slipping…
5th round: Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa. Despite the fact that no player in the history of fantasy basketball with 5 names has ever done jack, this pick, following on the heels of Davis, lends a strong argument to pre-draft drug testing…You know what people used to yell before jumping out of airplanes and off of cliffs, don’t you…yes…Geronimo…Seriously, De La Rosa will have some good games, just not enough to justify him as a 5th round pick. If he was a 10th round or later pick, I would say…interesting…
8th round: Ryan Petraitis. I said this about him in my MML evaluation, first, I don’t like players from the service academies as fantasy prospects, and, second, since he plays for Joe Scott, who runs the Princeton offense, it would be a first if Scott ran something and/or told his team to get Petraitis the ball more. Petraitis has all the measurables from a strong freshman year that would scream: “take me” if he were playing for somebody else at another school. So, not a bad pick, but the jury is definitely out on this one.
9th round: Caleb Love, the team-destroying, negative spread kid from UNC is now at Arizona trying to fool the NBA scouts (he will, IMHO) into drafting him in the 2nd round. I think he’s a no-help pick at best.
10th round: Victor Lakhin. Yes, I like Lakhin, but I don’t know that he is actually going to be able to improve on his nice soph numbers due to the program he is in.
11th round: J’Wan Roberts. A role player who is not going to get shots on probably the most guard-oriented program in DI is a no help, at best.
Total picks=8
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 10
Average/Okay picks: 4
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 1
ANALYSIS: Surprisingly, poor draft from IG. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that he was in the middle of his 10 drinks with umbrellas on a white sand beach in the tropics surrounded by butt floss bikinis. “F.”
The Prodigal Son
3rd round: Freshman.
5th round: RayJ Dennis will not approach his pre-Baylor numbers. Not much help.
7th round: Steven Ashworth really shoots it…and, that’s nice, but it means…bupkes. He is going to be on a team that has a grip of guys who will get shots, so, they are sharing the wealth and he is a… non-rebounding guard…which means…no help.
8th round: *Austin Crowley may breakout this year if he can pick up his rebounding. He’s going to score. So, this is a good pick…I know, by now you probably think I hate every player….
12th round: Wesley Cardet will be trying to break out this year. Not sure if he can but I think he could average at least 20 fppg.
13th round: Freshman.
Total picks=6
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 2
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: Because they didn’t take anybody who sucks, and Crowley could be a 20+ fppg player they get a “C.”
South Austin Horns
1st round: *Lassina Traore. His fppg in conference play (which is what counts the most) was the highest of all the FA’s. Finally, somebody recognized that there is a statistical stud out there and understands that statistics are what we go by in fantasy basketball!
3rd round: Freshman.
6th round: Kevin Cross. I’ve been watching him for three years, waiting for him to do something but he’s a big-time fantasy underachiever. Sorry…
7th round: Oso Ighodaro should be primed for a big bump up, especially, if can improve his rebounding, but I think that what you see is what you get…a decent and pretty consistent fantasy player who will get his 18-20 fantasy points most nights.
10th round: *Jermaine Marshall, is a sleeper, although he averaged just over 20 fppg last year. I don’t know if he can under his current coach, but you would think that he can upgrade at least 2 fppg if he just takes a few more shots, which should be doable.
12th round: Freshman.
Total picks=6
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: Traore makes this a solid “B.” If Marshall and/or Ighodoro come through it will become a “B+.”
The Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion
2nd round: *DeMarcus Sharp. While he is transferring up, the level is not too great, and his former head coach transferred up with him. So, I am high on Sharp, who was one of a handful of elite (he was 25+ fppg in conference play) FA guards and is a great pick.
3rd round: *B.J. Freeman is a high risk, high reward pick. Maybe a little early (definitely a reach in the 3rd but would he still be available by the 6th round?) but I like this as a good pick looking at how Freeman adjusted from JC level by the 2nd round of conference play last year and could just bust out this year.
4th round: *Payton Sandifort. Like Freeman above, probably a little early to take him, but he plays in an up-tempo program for an offensive coach and will probably average no less than 17 & 7. He gets treys & some assists, so, I like this pick.
5th round: I think that getting *Brandon Johnson in the 5th will prove to be one of the steals of the entire draft! He should go off this year. Mark him as a likely great and not just good pick.
8th round: *Kevin McCullar in the 6th is an EVEN BIGGER steal than Johnson in the 5th was. KABOOM! He’s the other scoring option for Kansas. Great get.
9th round: *Tre Mitchell. You know, everybody is just leaving these guys on the side of the road and The Ghosts are just picking them up on their way to the beach. Wow, how is Mitchell still on the board in the 9th?
12th round: Jayden Stone. Why not? If you are going to reach, reach late. Stone will be the man for his team this year. Will he be any good at it? Who knows? Who cares? It’s the 12th round.
Total picks=7
Great picks: 3
Good picks: 3
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: A fairly classic example of how to maximize a draft. First, take no freshmen. Next, take players who have a chance of being good fantasy players instead of old, tired dudes that not only have never done it, but whose numbers don’t add up to there being any upside to do so. On top of which, he went guard heavy & quality guards are always in short supply in fantasy basketball. It all adds up to an “A,” need I say any more about the almost perfect draft?
Leathernecks
1st round: Freshman.
2nd round: *Kelton Talford. I don’t have an issue with taking Talford, it’s just that there were bigger fish to fry here. On top of which, they are pretty loaded in the frontcourt, and I’m surprised to see they didn’t take a guard here.
12th round: Freshman
Total picks=3
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 1
Average/Okay picks: 0
Questionable So-So picks: 0
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: “C” is the grade. Talford could go big this year, but I don’t know that he has that much more in him to get to. In other words, I think he is close to his ceiling already.
T-N-T Youngsters
1st round: Erik Reynolds is a shocking first pick to me. I have to admit that the Commish & myself shared some back-and-forth emails after this pick, and, I have changed my opinion on him, slightly. I saw him as a no-help guy based on his spread and his teammates, etc., etc., but the Commish liked his string of games near the end of conference play. So, I see him as a guy who can get you that 19.9 or whatever fppg, and, not much more, but I am ready to say I’m wrong if Reynolds can get just to 21+ fppg. I just can’t make him a good pick as a first rounder. As a 5th or 6th, yeah.
2nd round: Isaiah Cozart. He is a role player, defender, rebounder, shot blocker, put back artist. I did see where he had a great first game the other day but there is nothing in his history to suggest that is sustainable. So, while I don’t him as a player, I just don’t see him as a 2nd round talent. He’s an add after the draft to me.
3rd round: *Anton Watson. I gave him the seal of approval (*) as a good player, but I am pretty sure that the Zags don’t see Watson as the go-to guy on this year’s team which means he will be right around that 21 fppg again, which means he could’ve gone lower in the draft.
4th round: *Sadaidriene Hall. I like Hall but I don’t trust his college coach to scrap his crazy system of spreading the minutes around regardless of whether a player, like Hall, is more talented than the others. So, I don’t know if he will really impact or not, more likely that he is just another nice player (four out of the first four here) that adds quality depth.
5th round: Chad Venning has upside. I don’t know how much, and I don’t know if it’s fully arriving this year, but he is a decent pick.
11th round: Freshman.
12th round: Damarco Minor is a major reach, but, again, it’s the 12th round, so, not a bad pick.
Total picks=7
Great picks: 0
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 2
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: “C+.” There are no suck wads in this group, but, no impact players, IMHO, either. If Reynolds, Hall, and Venning, hit, it becomes a strong “B.”
Cal Bears
2nd round: Josh Oduro…Josh Oduro? As a team’s first pick in the draft…That’s like a death knell, as it just doesn’t figure that he will be highly productive for Providence. Mark him as a questionable pick.
3rd round: Wade Taylor. The best player on Texas A&M. In fantasy, if he’s in your starting lineup you’re not going to be doing much winning unless your other players are close to maxing out. The numbers don’t lie dudes!
6th round: Ajay Mitchell. Again, the numbers don’t lie. An average fantasy player.
8th round: Tyson Degenhart. He has potential, which is not as good as upside. Upside is when you’re a 6’8 forward who rebounds and just needs to either get more shots or make more shots, not a 6’8 forward who just doesn’t rebound. So, I think he is very close to hitting his head on the ceiling already.
10th round: Freshman.
11th round: Freshman.
Great picks: 6
Good picks: 0
Average/Okay picks: 1
Questionable So-So picks: 1
Bad/poor picks: 2
ANALYSIS: They did wait to take freshmen, which is good, but, they did not add a single guy who can impact. These are bench sitters and guys waiting to be dropped later. “D-.”
Albuquerque Chickenhawks
1st round: *Vonterius Woolbright. I think that the C-Hawks are figuring that if Woolbright just improves his shooting percentages that they have a stud. Problem is, if you are going to be a senior and still can’t shoot (even his ft pct., is poor) it probably ain’t happening which is why I do have him as a good but not great pick with his 20.9 fppg average in conference play. Maybe he can get that up to 22 fppg, but that would be it-and that might be worth it, but, again, better guards were on the board. AC was “spec-ing” just a bit here.
2nd round: *Roger McFarlane, on paper, is a better bet than Woolbright. A juco transfer who needed a little bit of time, he averaged almost 24 fppg in conference play and is an even stronger rebounder than Woolbright. Potentially great pick.
3rd round: It’s a Guard-a-Palooza for AC! And rightly so. They also recognize that good fantasy guards are hard to come by and loaded up. Earl Timberlake finally showed up last year and should be a little better for the experience this year with Charlie Pride gone.
4th round: *Tristan Enaruna. Even if he doesn’t build much on last season’s 21+ fppg average, he provides good depth at forward.
7th round: Cheat disclaimer! *Malevy Leons didn’t look like he had a lot of upsides, but after that first game could be a fantasy player to be reckoned with. That makes him a very good get in the 7th round.
8th round: Blake Hinson. I’d been expecting him to be a killer and not just a nice fantasy player, so, nothing bad, nothing special here.
13th round: Freshman.
Total picks=7
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 3
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 0
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: This is a strong “B” that could easily become a “B+” if Timberlake & Hinson bump up a little and Leons gets to the 22+ fppg level.
Fore Sons & A Doctor
1st round: *Charles Thompson, has improved his stats each year he has played but I don’t like him as a first-round pick. I will mark him as a good player but he’s really coming off the bench for a strong team.
2nd round: *N’Faly Dante Should explode for Oregon this year, meaning I see him as a great pick!
3rd round: *Jahsean Corbett has upside and is a good pick.
5th round: Mitchell Saxen is likely maxed out as an okay fantasy player.
8th round: Freshman.
10th round: Wooga Poplar. Not yet quite sure what to make of him, but I have to say that so far, he has shown the ability to score some points but do little else, which means I’m not high on him as a fantasy player.
12th round: Freshman.
13th round: Freshman.
Total picks=8
Great picks: 1
Good picks: 2
Average/Okay picks: 2
Questionable So-So picks: 0
Bad/poor picks: 0
ANALYSIS: “B+.” Dante should be a high impact add and Corbett also has a chance to impact. Thompson is solid. Saxen isn’t doo-doo and Poplar is okay although Fore Sons will probably never put him in the lineup.
I wait with trepidation each year for the Grouchos scathing review of my draft attempt. This year was no exception. I will say that I may have made a Minor error with my UVA pick. My annual drop/add quest has begun!