Week #1, November 11-17
While I haven’t done any research, my guess would be that outside of that week or weeks where a lot of games aren’t played in December, the first week is the worst week, as far as the number of teams who are averaging 20 fantasy points per game (fppg) per player.
The Deep Valley Grouchos had the most points which doesn’t mean a whole lot because they also had the most games. House of Sparky finished first in spread differential>the difference between how many real points their lineup scored and how many fantasy points that resulted in. The differential is derived by dividing the total fantasy points scored by a team by the total number of games that team played for the week.
I think that 5.0 is the bottom line most of the time (there are no absolutes in fantasy basketball) to give a team a much better than average chance of winning. It will take a while to see whether or not any of the team’s spread differentials are sustainable, but let’s see how the week looked.
Spread differential in order of first to last (W-L record shown for the week):
2-1>House of Sparky: +96=6.85
3-0^DVG’s: +107=6.3
3-0^KC Warthogs: +81=5.78
1-2;Virginia Gentlemen: +64=5.3
2-1>Psychos: +60=4.6
3-0^Gator Bait: +69=4.3
2-1>Hoosiers: +59=3.93
0-3-North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +38=3.8
OVERALL record for the top 8 teams in terms of spread=16-8
0-3-Hardwood Heroes: +46=3.28
2-1>Hillbilly Maulers: +46=3.06
2-1>The Hoop Guru: +42=2.8
0-3-Vindaloos: +41=2.7
2-1>Maize and Blue Bloods: +39=2.6
0-3-Saluki YRD’s: +23=2.09
0-3-Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +25=2.08
2-1>Prozac Pups: +29=2.07
OVERALL record for the bottom 8 teams in terms of spread=8-16
In looking at the above team records relative to spread, the only thing that can save a team with a really poor spread is scheduling, and, of course, the number of games played. But please remember that this is about figuring out how to improve one’s team for the playoffs where the number of games played-DOES NOT MATTER. It’s averages, and, that’s why the teams above are ranked in order of their spread averages and not the total number of positive spread points.
*The main positive for spread being so important is not what you may have inferred from all this. Players who have good spreads (generally, 5.0-7.0) give their team a chance to win even when those players are having what I call “struggle games” where they are not shooting well and/or not getting their normal number of fga’s, their rebounding is down, they are making more turnovers, etc., etc., but, overall, they still had a positive spread which meant that while they underperformed and did not help their team win, they didn’t just go down in flames and kill their team’s chances of winning…which can often mean the difference between a team winning or losing.
Looking at the records for the week, Prozac went two and one because they had HH & the YRD’s on their schedule-both of whom went oh for three on the week. Maize got two wins vs. NPFR & the Vin’s, both of whom went 0-3 on the week. Ditto for The Hoop Guru who got their two w’s vs. the winless HH’s & YRD’s. And, yes, the Maulers received two “gifts” from the 0-3 Reindeer & the Vindaloos, whose curry was simply not seasoned properly.
A player’s individual spread should be highly considered when thinking about adding him as a free agent (FA). Too many times I will see a player who just had a huge game get picked up but his fundamentals (spread, rebounds, normal amount of fga’s one can expect) are poor.