Week #2, November 18-24
After two weeks there isn’t enough data to support any real trends, but some trends may be apparent already.
The Deep Valley Grouchos had the most points which doesn’t mean a whole lot because they also had the most games. House of Sparky finished first in spread differential>the difference between how many real points their lineup scored and how many fantasy points that resulted in. The differential is derived by dividing the total fantasy points scored by a team by the total number of games that team played for the week.
I think that a spread of +5.0 is the bottom line most of the time (there are no absolutes in fantasy basketball) to give a team a much better than average chance of winning. It will take a while to see whether or not any of the team’s spread differentials are sustainable, but let’s see how the week looked.
Spread differential in order of first to last (W-L record shown for the week) with week one results listed underneath the current week, week #2 for comparison:
1-2-Saluki YRD’s: +76=6.9
Comment: Saluki’s have the lowest team scoring average in the MML at 198.00. It’s great to see they had the best spread average on the week but their low scoring total means they don’t have nearly enough guys who can average 20+ fppg each week. They’ve made some good moves and need to make about 3 more.
Week 1: 0-3 Saluki YRD’s: +23=2.09
2-1>DVG’s: =111=6.6
Week 1: 3-0 DVG’s: +107=6.3
Comment: While the DVG’s spread is excellent, it is masking the fact that out of 34 games during the first two weeks, 15 of them have seen players score under 20 fppg., meaning that they have benefitted from a couple of huge games. Nothing wrong with that, because everybody needs some of those bigger than expected games along the line, but they need to up their 20+percentage to be all they can be.
1-2-Hillbilly Maulers: +109=6.4
Comment: Hillbilly has players on the roster who are “good spread” guys, but need more heavy hitters as shown by a team scoring average of just 258.50 after two weeks. Methinks Jameer Nelson’s Day of reckoning is in the near future…
Week 1: 2-1 Hillbilly Maulers: +46=3.06
2-1>Maize and Blue Bloods: +109=5.7
Comment: I think they are going to have to get used to being on a little bit of a roller coaster from a few of their guys each week, meaning when they are good, they are pretty good and when they’re not, well…
Week 1: 2-1 Maize and Blue Bloods: +39=2.6
3-0^KC Warthogs: +101=5.6
Comment: Warthogs averaging 343.50 per week thus far. Aboubacar Traore is much improved over last year, probably because he was shamed by his younger brother Lassina being far better. The roster averages are not impressive relative to other teams but the starters are pretty much getting close to and/or their max and then the “Edey factor” bumps them up.
Week 1: 3-0 KC Warthogs: +81=5.78
2-1>House of Sparky: +76=5.4
Comment: They got a good five, but we play with seven. Don’t understand why UAB basically 86’d Lendeborg, who got off to a good start-did he try to get frisky with the head coach’s wife?
Week 1: 2-1 House of Sparky: +96=6.85
0-3-Psychos: +57=4.75
Comment: Despite their record, I believe the Psychos will be competitive going forward.
Week1: 2-1 Psychos: +60=4.6
2-1>Vindaloos: +87=4.6
Comment: Vin’s are in a world of hurt (didn’t John Goodman say that in some movie?) with their current roster.
Week 1: 0-3 Vindaloos: +41=2.7
3-0^Hoosiers: +79=4.4
Comment: Hoosiers spread isn’t much but they are getting production from their top players. Anton Watson is having a resurgence. Great add in Keyshawn Hall. Mack is their 4th try at landing a good freshman, and is a keeper, I think. Time to throw out the pasta (Policelli) as nobody wants it.
Week 1: 2-1 Hoosiers: +59=3.93
1-2-Virginia Gentlemen: +68=4.0
Comment: It’s early…which is good. They have 3 nice new players performing well-which balances out the disappointing performances from some guys they expected to be really strong & solid for them. No time to go crazy. Finding a freshman would be my first order of business.
Week 1: 1-2 Virginia Gentlemen: +64=5.3
0-3-Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +60=4.0
Comment: “Meh” is the first word that comes to mind when I look at their roster.
Week 1: 0-3 Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +25=2.08
1-2-Gator Bait: +55=3.66
Comment: Abmas is outta’ there! GB is making moves, and they are good ones.
Week 1: 3-0 Gator Bait: +69=4.3
2-1>North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +60=3.5
Comment: Although he looks like a huge woodsman in the middle of Minnesota from the 1840’s the “Dickinson factor” is just as strong as the “Edey factor. Very thin roster after their top four, however.
Week 1: 0-3 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +38=3.8
0-3-Hardwood Heroes: +60=3.5
Comment: HH takes my philosophy of only caring about the playoffs to the extreme. He’s probably saying right now: I don’t need to win no stinking regular season games! He hasn’t put his best lineup out yet, although he’s only 5 deep.
Week 1: 0-3 Hardwood Heroes: +46=3.28
3-0^The Hoop Guru: +58=3.2
Comment: Interesting (in a good way) roster.
Week 1: 2-1 The Hoop Guru: +42=2.8
1-2-Prozac Pups: +56=3.1
Comment: The Pups have also struggled with the freshman position but on their 4th try they finally snagged a winner in Toppin.
Week 1: 2-1 Prozac Pups: +29=2.1
In looking at the above team records relative to spread, the only thing that can save a team with a really poor spread is scheduling, and, of course, the number of games played. But please remember that this is about figuring out how to improve one’s team for the playoffs where the number of games played-DOES NOT MATTER. It’s averages, and, that’s why the teams above are ranked in order of their spread averages and not the total number of positive spread points.
*The main positive for spread being so important is not what you may have inferred from all this. Players who have good spreads (generally, 5.0-7.0) give their team a chance to win even when those players are having what I call “struggle games” where they are not shooting well and/or not getting their normal number of fga’s, their rebounding is down, they are making more turnovers, etc., etc., but, overall, they still had a positive spread which meant that while they underperformed and did not help their team win, they didn’t just go down in flames and kill their team’s chances of winning…which can often mean the difference between a team winning or losing.
Looking at the records for the week, Prozac went two and one because they had HH & the YRD’s on their schedule-both of whom went oh for three on the week. Maize got two wins vs. NPFR & the Vin’s, both of whom went 0-3 on the week. Ditto for The Hoop Guru who got their two w’s vs. the winless HH’s & YRD’s. And, yes, the Maulers received two “gifts” from the 0-3 Reindeer & the Vindaloos, whose curry was simply not seasoned properly.
A player’s individual spread should be highly considered when thinking about adding him as a free agent (FA). Too many times I will see a player who just had a huge game get picked up but his fundamentals (spread, rebounds, normal amount of fga’s one can expect) are poor.