Week #3, November 25-December 1
I think that a spread of +5.0 is the bottom line most of the time (there are no absolutes in fantasy basketball) to give a team a much better than average chance of winning. It will take a while to see whether or not any of the team’s spread differentials are sustainable, but let’s see how the week looked.
Spread differential in order of first to last (W-L record shown for the week) with previous weeks results listed underneath the current week, week #3 for comparison.
1-2-Deep Valley Grouchos: +95=7.3
Week 2: 2-1 DVG’s: +111=6.6
Week 1: 3-0 DVG’s: +107=6.3
Comment: Spread numbers continue to be consistently excellent, a statistical fundamental that cannot be ignored and bodes well for them down the line.
0-3-Hillbilly Maulers: +66=7.3
Week 2: 1-2 Hillbilly Maulers: +109=6.4
Week 1: 2-1 Hillbilly Maulers: +46=3.06
2-1>Saluki YRD’s: +59=6.5
Week 2: 1-2 Saluki YRD’s: +76=6.9
Week 1: 0-3 Saluki YRD’s: +23=2.09
3-0^Hoosiers: +73=6.08
Week 2: 3-0 Hoosiers: +79=4.4
Week 1: 2-1 Hoosiers: +59=3.93
Comment: Hoosiers are for real. I know that the previous two weeks weren’t great and week 3 represents a huge jump up, but I think week 3 reflects who they can and will likely be.
2-1>Virginia Gentlemen: +71=5.9
Week 2: 1-2 Virginia Gentlemen: +68=4.0
Week 1: 1-2 Virginia Gentlemen: +64=5.3
3-0^Psychos: +74=5.7
Week 2: 0-3 Psychos: +57=4.75
Week 1: 2-1 Psychos: +60=4.6
Comment: Aha! What did I say last week? This is what I said: “Despite their record, I believe the Psychos will be competitive going forward.”
1-2-Prozac Pups: +64=4.9
Week 2: 1-2 Prozac Pups: +56=3.1
Week 1: 2-1 Prozac Pups: +29=2.1
1-2-House of Sparky: +73=4.86
Comment: HOS will be all right. They are probably someplace in between their week 1 and week 3 spreads and that’s a good place to be.
Week 2: 2-1 House of Sparky: +76=5.4
Week 1: 2-1 House of Sparky: +96=6.85
0-3-Vindaloos: +53=4.8
Week 2: 2-1 Vindaloos: +87=4.6
Week 1: 0-3 Vindaloos: +41=2.7
2-1>The Hoop Guru: +49=4.45
Week 2: 3-0 The Hoop Guru: +58=3.2
Week 1: 2-1 The Hoop Guru: +42=2.8
2-1>North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +59=4.2
Week 2: 2-1 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +60=3.5
Week 1: 0-3 North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +38=3.8
3-0^Hardwood Heroes: +54=3.85
Week 2: 0-3 Hardwood Heroes: +60=3.5
Week 1: 0-3 Hardwood Heroes: +46=3.28
Comment: Good scheduling! Unlike Gator Bait, they’re under 4.0 spreads are more than a trend, they are a pattern; and, it is one that does not bode well, going forward, despite the fact that they had their best spread average yet during week 3.
3-0^Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +56=3.7
Week 2: 0-3 Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +60=4.0
Week 1: 0-3 Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +25=2.08
Comment: Means nothing. I won’t “crunch” the rosters until after week 4, but they are still in deep doo-doo, as far as I can see.
0-3-Maize and Blue Bloods: +47=3.6
Week 2: 2-1 Maize and Blue Bloods: +109=5.7
Week 1: 2-1 Maize and Blue Bloods: +39=2.6
1-2-KC Warthogs: +33=3.0
Week 2: 3-0 KC Warthogs: +101=5.6
Week 1: 3-0 KC Warthogs: +81=5.78
Comment: Week 3 is not who they are. I think you just throw this one out.
0-3-Gator Bait: +13=0.86
Week 2: 1-2 Gator Bait: +55=3.66
Week 1: 3-0 Gator Bait: +69=4.3
Comment: Their spread has trended down. Week 3 is no doubt, an aberration, just one of those horrible weeks that each team has to endure at least once during the season, but they weren’t showing good signs prior to week three.
In week 3, seven teams had anywhere from 9-12 games, so, the win-loss records, relative to spread were not the norm. Remember that every dog will have his day is an old saying for a good reason-and, week 3 reflects that old bromide. Trends are starting to form, but, they won’t really “tell the truth” Until after week 4. 4 weeks is enough to see how things are likely to go, and, of course, after week 8, there is no escaping that each team is who they appear to be-despite maybe having more or less games than the other teams.