Week #4, December 2-December 8
I think that a spread of +5.0 is the bottom line most of the time (there are no absolutes in fantasy basketball) to give a team a much better than average chance of winning. It will take a while to see whether or not any of the team’s spread differentials are sustainable, but let’s see how the week looked.
Spread differential in order of first to last (W-L record shown for the week) with previous weeks results listed underneath the current week, week #4 for comparison.
*We’ve played 4 weeks, and you have to go inside the numbers to really understand how your team is doing. Remember that all stats are a clue, and, not a final and definite answer unto themselves. It’s when you put all the clues together and dig into them (you have to get a little nerdy) that patterns/trends/tendencies are visible. On top of that, it’s doubtful that any team has put out their best lineup yet.
0-3-KC Warthogs: +64=7.1
Week 3: 1-2; +33=3.0
Week 2: 3-0; +101=5.6
Week 1: 3-0; +81=5.78
Comment: This is a perfect example of why you have to dig inside the numbers. Great spread right? Well, that came from just 3 players in their lineup. The other 4 had a combined spread of 0.5, and, they got just 9 games on the week including just one from Edey. Throw this week out as far as wins-losses go.
3-0^Maize and Blue Bloods: +76=6.3
Week 3: 0-3; =47=3.6
Week 2: 2-1; +109=5.7
Week 1: 2-1; +39=2.6
1-2-Hillbilly Maulers: +65=5.9
Week 3: 0-3; +66=7.3
Week 2: 1-2; +109=6.4
Week 1: 2-1; +46=3.06
1-2-Hardwood Heroes: +51=5.6
Week 3: 3-0; +54=3.85
Week 2: 0-3; +60=3.5
Week 1: 0-3; +46=3.28
3-0^Deep Valley Grouchos: +74=5.28
Week 3: 1-2; +95=7.3
Week 2: 2-1; +111=6.6
Week 1: 3-0; +107=6.3
Current record: 9-3
Comment: On the “real” side of these stats, the DVG’s are consistently getting a great team spread. Looking inside the numbers, their spread is somewhat skewed by the fact that certain players are having some incredible spread games while others are doing poorly in that regard. Overall, it’s still a positive, but it is masking some issues.
2-1>Saluki YRD’s: +52=4.7
Week 3: 2-1; +59=6.5
Week 2: 1-2; +76=6.9
Week 1: 0-3; +23=2.09
3-0^The Hoop Guru: +65=5.0
Week 3: 2-1; +49=4.45
Week 2: 3-0; +58=3.2
Week 1: 2-1; +42=2.8
3-0^Virginia Gentlemen: +60=5.0
Week 3: 2-1; +71=5.9
Week 2: 1-2; +68=4.0
Week 1: 1-2; +64=5.3
0-3-House of Sparky: +55=5.0
Week 3: 1-2; +73=4.86
Week 2: 2-1; +76=5.4
Week 1: 2-1; +96=6.85
0-3-Gator Bait: +54=4.5
Week 3: 0-3; +13=0.86
Week 2: 1-2; +55=3.66
Week 1: 3-0; +69=4.3
2-1>Psychos: +56=4.3
Week 3: 3-0; +74=5.7
Week 2: 0-3; +57=4.75
Week 1: 2-1; +60=4.6
1-2-Prozac Pups: +52=4.3
Week 3: 1-2; +64=4.9
Week 2: 1-2; +56=3.1
Week 1: 2-1; +29=2.1
2-1>Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +45=4.09
Week 3: 3-0; +56=3.7
Week 2: 0-3; +60=4.0
Week 1: 0-3; +25=2.08
1-2-Hoosiers: +31=2.38
Week 3: 3-0; +73=6.08
Week 2: 3-0; +79=4.4
Week 1: 2-1; +59=3.93
Comment: Did I jinx them? What I said last week: “Hoosiers are for real. I know that the previous two weeks weren’t great and week 3 represents a huge jump up, but I think week 3 reflects who they can and will likely be.”
2-1>Vindaloos: +25=1.78
Week 3: 0-3; +53=4.8
Week 2: 2-1; +87=4.6
Week 1: 0-3; +41=2.7
Comment: Ahh, the power of having 14 games and playing one opponent with 4 less games and another with a horrible, horrible, lineup choice. This is why you have to dive into the matrix, otherwise the 1.78 spread makes no sense.
0-3-North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +13=1.3
Week 3: 2-1; +59=4.2
Week 2: 2-1; +60=3.5
Week 1: 0-3; +38=3.8
In week 4, there was a strange brew in regard to the number of games teams had, with two teams having 9 games, one just 10, 4 having 11, 3 with 14 & 3 with 13, which really skews analysis, although, again, if you take the time, you can easily look at your team’s games through 4 weeks and see the problems that are not going to go away vs. the “aberrations,” the things that happen once to a player that are not likely to be his norm, etc., etc.