Well, I have not scrutinized the NCAA as much as the MML this season, but, as previously stated, I have a strong interest in the league, so, here goes. Disclaimer: I reserve the right to be wrong!
Wooden Conference
Haskins Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
1. The Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion: 9-3 (3-0), 281.50
Three studs in Soriano, McCullar, and, Pember, and, better yet, each one plays a different position. A declining talent in Mitchell, who is seeing his fga’s drop. He’s a stat stuffer of sorts, but he will also have to be a high percentage fg shooter. You never know what you are going to get with Jayden Stone, a bonafide gunner, but he will get you shots, and, he can do more than just put it up. A wild ride (or, a rild wide) at times but worth keeping. Sharp is solid and should bump up in conference play. They’ve got two great freshmen. It would be nice if they had another quality center, but they are firmly in the race for the gold in what is always the best division in the NCAA.
2. South Austin Horns: 8-4 (2-1), 274.50
They used to be the doormats but they have become a force of late. They possess the “Edey factor,” which means that a lineup with Edey in it always has a chance to beat anybody. However, I think that Kevin Cross is due for a correction downward and while he could finish with his best season by far is not to be counted on. I like Goldin and DeVries, and, Pride is solid. I expect that Traore will be what he was last year when conference play starts. They are decent+ at the frosh slot but lack one impact starter and they have very questionable depth.
3. T-N-T Youngsters 5-7 (1-2), 255.25
An interesting roster, both in a good, bad, and, who knows way. Isaiah Cozart has 70 blocked shots in 7 games and is actually capable of maintaining something close to that, in effect, adding a fourth impact stat for him personally, when most have just two and some have three. He’s going to maintain a high fg pct., and, he will continue to rebound. He’s just never done all of this at such a rate of success. I don’t see him continuing to average 30+, but there’s no doubt he can be a 25+stud. Alexis is definitely a stud. Osobor may actually dip a little in conference play, but I have to anoint him a stud anyways. So, there’s that. After a slow start, Watson has become Watson, solid, solid+. And, they have two great freshmen. Center is okay. The problem is guard. Now, they can play either of the freshmen at one guard spot, but history shows that is not a winning proposition. Nope, they have to get an impact guard. Outside of Osobar, I don’t see that one impact guard among the other 4 on their roster. This makes them better than the Horns & Fore Sons, but, not good enough when it’s time to go to the dance.
4. Fore Sons & A Doctor 8-4 (0-3), 261.50
The “Dickinson factor” is on equal footing with the “Edey factor.” The guards haven’t been particularly good and the forwards have good numbers but are erratic. While he’s an Ivy player, I think that Pierce is a stud, and, they added Chaplin, another stud. Similar to the Ghosts, this gives them three studs, each at a different position. There’s a huge drop-off behind those three however, or, is there? Right now, statistically, there is. But I think he has some firepower that hasn’t shown up yet in Zeke Mayo-who should be killing it in conference. The other players are hit and miss and/or provide decent depth, so, they are a couple of impact players short, and, we will have to see if the game Bradshaw had on Saturday (12-9-23) is something close to what we can expect or not, because his frosh slot is shaky.
Haskins Analysis: This is the best division from top to bottom with the Ghost looking elite.
Knight Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
1. The Prodigal Son: 8-4 (3-0), 274.50
Good scheduling, more games…whatever the reason, this roster is thin. Ledee is a stud. Mack is a stud for a freshman-possibly the top frosh in fantasy college basketball. After that you have an okay Humrichous, okay because he often doesn’t get a lot of jacks, A. Traore, who is up and down, ditto for Smith & Coulibaly, and that’s pretty much the rest of the roster in a pistachio nut shell. They need at least 3 impact starters to be taken seriously as a contender.
2. Hog Wild: 4-8 (2-1), 246.00
I love their name and I am hog wild about their roster which is better than their record. Crews is for real and Minix, Powell, and, Tainamo are all solid+ performers. Thomas is wildly up and down, hitting big bigs and low lows. Wilson is usually better than his average when he can see the rock. Milton has to shoot well to get his numbers but Johnson is one of the better freshmen. They are currently a wild card of sorts, but one with more positives than negatives. One more impact starter would be nice.
3. Leathernecks: 5-7 (1-2), 263.00
For a turtle, their roster is borderline scary. Freeman & Bacot are pretty much game to game studs. Scheierman is a borderline stud having a better season than last season and could push up to their level. Ajayi has had a few bumps but Pepperdine needs him to be all he can be, so, while he may take a dip, 23+ is realistic for him. Rice just isn’t going to give a 70-% fg shooter the ball, so Fiedler is a 21 fppg guy. They are three deep in quality at the frosh position. If “the Clingan” would be what he looked like he would be when viewed last season (like the 2nd coming of Edey), I would say that they will be right there at the end. But they need one more impact starter. Doesn’t have to be a stud, just a guy who can put up around 23 fppg.
4. Yoder Dame Fighting Amish: 2-10 (0-3), 224.75
I do like to make fun of Yoder Dame, but I have to admit that I love the logo on their team page. Their roster however, is in deep doo-doo. When Jordan Johnson is your top player, you don’t have a team that can contend. I like Clarence Daniels and that’s about it. They need to call the city and have them pick up some trash: Cadeau, Youngblood, Williams, Tynes, and, Moreno for a start. Adding Jaylin Sellers wasn’t a bad move, but it wasn’t truly an impactful one. They literally have no chance in hell of winning anything this year. But they could use their three remaining adds to get three freshmen or sophomores and build a base for next season. If they don’t, they will suck next year as well. It’s already burn down the house time for these Amish.
Knight analysis: Hog Wild & Leathernecks could do damage come February.
Valvano Conference
Rupp Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
1. Albuquerque Chicken Hawks: 7-5 (3-0), 289.25
Filipowski & Woolbright are studs. I’m not that high on Coleman, who I wouldn’t add if he was a gift, because his program is one of the “anti-offense” teams, and, he hasn’t consistently shown that he can do what he’s been able to so far. Doesn’t mean he’s a bad player, but, he’s a good depth player currently playing over his head. Broome should be better in conference even though the comp is tougher because Pearl will shorten his rotation as he did last year. I like what I’m seeing from Hinson. Timberlake is fine. Enaruna is what he was last year, solid, and, not what he started out like this season. I have McFarlane and I got him specifically for conference play time, so, I would hold onto him. They have good freshmen. This is a good team. A very good team. But they are on a sort of a tightrope with Coleman, Broome, Hinson, Timberlake & Enaruna. Again, all of them are good, but can any of them provide the magic numbers of 22-23+ on a fairly consistent basis so they can be a great team? If they can, the Chicken Hawks will be hunting come playoff time.
2. Boeheim’s Army: 6-6 (2-1), 242.00
Well, it should be Autry’s Army now, but, that’s small potatoes. Sticking with the army theme, they have a fully automatic uzi in Mogbo, an erratic assault rifle in Ellis, and a collection of pop guns, starter’s pistols and water guns after those two. Wicks & Hall can be much more than their current averages, but will they? Hopkins has been so erratic after such a great breakout season last year. Can he recover that form? And, Huff can score and will probably be a stud scorer for Gonzaga…next year, so, they have good freshmen. But all that doesn’t add up to much firepower. They are woefully undermanned.
3. Independent George: 5-7 (1-2), 266.00
Just seeing the team’s name makes me want a big salad. And, they have the ingredients for a good one. I don’t think Newton & Lakhin can maintain their current averages, but even if they dip to 23+ that’s good for starters. Dillon Jones is a stud. Because of the system he plays in I have question marks about Petraitis, who is a good player, and I like Edwards-who West Virginia should go to more than they do. They even have a great salad “toppin,” in Jadyn Toppin, an outstanding freshman. All that leaves them one impact starter short. Carlson & Davis provide good depth but neither is the answer. Independent George has 3 moves left. Make a move before the worlds of Dependent and Independent George collide, and Independent George ceases to exist. Please!
4. Cal Bears: 6-6 (0-3), 260.75
Roster is looking a little thin. Not in a horrible state, but, definitely not robust. Ware is a stud. Mitchell has been, so far, but figures to take a dip in conference play. Garcia’s on and off rebounding worries me but he’s a good player, and, Kalkbrenner is solid. After that there is a huge drop-off. They have all 4 moves left. If they use them properly there’s a chance, they could do some damage in the playoffs. And one of them needs to be a good freshman. Drop Taylor, Degenhart, Nembhard, and, Selabangue. They have all the value of single use plastic.
Rupp Analysis: Albuquerque & George have the chance to go deep.
Smith Division (listed in order of their division record and NOT their overall record)
1. The Walk Ons: 6-6 (3-0), 261.00
Two studs in Post & Omier. A pseudo-stud (I think he will dip in conference play) in Simpson. Good guards in Felton & Kolek, a promising soph in Wolf and one of the better frosh in Perkins. It’s a good group. I feel that while I like their top 7, that they need a little more oomph in the starting lineup. Wolf & one of the guards should be coming off the bench. Good group, just needs some dynamite.
2. Pirate’s Raiders: 11-1 (2-1), 294.75
Johnny Depp could manage this group. Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum, they have some bodies. P.J. Hall has been a really big surprise. Saint Thomas & Brooks are both studs. That’s three. Sheppard’s numbers will drop but he should continue to be a good freshman. Aimaq’s numbers could go up. Stevens is solid. They need a guard. Tyson is a good player but can have some huge swings, so, despite his average I am not a fan of his being a starter. He would be great in a depth role. Still, they are in the hunt, but I think they need one.
3. Tribe: 6-6 (1-2), 265.00
Above all, timing is everything as I can’t imagine without looking at each week’s lineup how they have managed to average 265 a week looking at the roster. Terrence Shannon is a decent+fantasy player, but if he is your top scorer, you got nothing, going forward. Their starting lineup is fine, and, that includes the frosh slot. Shumate should bump up in January. But I don’t see how this lineup is going to topple the big boys. Not happening.
4. Gators: 0-12 (0-3), 137.25
I’ve never seen a team averaging just 137.25, let’s start there. I’ve also never seen a team without at least one player averaging 20 fppg, until now. And, they haven’t made a single move…hmm…maybe the GM is in traction…they have two ways to go. Either try to pick up four promising frosh or sophs, or, drop Edwards, Traore, Ballo, and Kugel for seniors so they will have those slots ( #1, 4, 6, and 8) available for next year’s draft. They cannot do a thing with this team this year. Personally, I don’t think they have a single player of value so I would drop the above players and rebuild from the ground up through the draft. It will be the beginning of a 3-year process to try and climb up out of the abyss…ugh…
Smith Analysis: Pirate’s Raiders have the booty. Walk Ons got a shot.