#4 Maize and Blue Bloods vs. #8 KC Warthogs
Okay, this is the dance because when the music stops in this one there will only be two seats left. MBB was expected to be here and KC was never less than 50-50 due to the “Edey factor.” So, how does this one shake up? PDE, or, pretty dang even. MBB can put out a lineup that features several players who have proven their consistency. Scheierman, Omier, and, Kalkbrenner are going to get their 22-30. I know that’s a wide range, but it is a good one. Haggerty has emerged as one of the elite freshmen. What about weak spots and/or problems? Well, every team has one or more at this time of the year. For MBB, the downward slide of Chaplin (no relation to Charlie, Geraldine, or, Sydney), who was outstanding when he first arrived has to be a major concern and of major internal discussions as to whether or not to put him in the lineup. Chaplin of course, is a guard…it’s always a guard issue. Gillespie has been on the rise and Smith has been pretty steady all year. It’s the lure of Chaplin’s 23 fppg average vs. the “under 22’s” of Gillespie & Smith. The player’s schedules should determine who gets the call but Chaplin’s one game of just 7 this past week is looming large in their GM’s mind. They went with Goldin at the 6th man spot this past week but should be taking a close look at Bickerstaff. Difficult but not bad decisions to have to make. KC? Edey is not only great into and unto himself but he has a settling feeling on making out the lineup. After all, with Edey, how bad can it be? Simpson was down this past week but has been pretty consistent and should get the call at one guard position. Lee, Freeman, and, Alexander are all in the air for the other guard slot. Their seasonal fantasy averages are all close to each other’s but Freeman is the most up and down, making it between Lee and Alexander. Alexander too, has some high-highs and some low-lows but has been steadier of late. Tough choice. Depending on the schedule, Wolf & Shumate are the likely forwards. That leaves the “wild card” G/F Aboubacar Traore, who had a great Elite Eight week. Their one issue above all others is the status of freshman Darren Buchanan. He did not play in their last game and his status is unknown. If he can’t play, it’s almost certain that MBB will roll and go to the final because Bradshaw is the only other freshman on the roster. If he is 100% it’s a toss-up.
Rated: Toss-up if Buchanan plays for KC, win for MBB if Buchanan can’t go.
#2 Hoosiers vs. #3 Virginia Gentlemen
Let me start by stating that I am not rating the Hoosiers as a “sell” instead of a “buy,” but, their boat is leaking, in other words, they are not sailing on Noah’s Ark, looking at their unfathomingly low scoring (for them) week. VG is also not operating with all sails. The Hoosiers were “let down” by Dubar, who reverted to the pre-senior version with a weekly average of 8.5 fppg. 7-22 and he DID NOT rebound the ball. However, VG is rolling a little hotter than the Hoosiers and still managed to get to the 160.0 level. Going back to the Hoosiers, they don’t have any problems. Concerns yes; over guess what? Guards, what else? They could go with Keyshawn Hall instead of Dubar. Cam Spencer at just a tick under 22 has actually been better than expected this season but can still come in lower than wanted. With the freshman Mack, back, they don’t really have any other issues…except for VG. A few weeks ago, I couldn’t envision myself saying this but VG has more firepower than the Hoosiers. Their top 6 all average around 24 or better. Wilborn was a great, late freshman find. Again, guards could be a concern, but, a minor one. Carter & Johnson are better than the Hoosier guards but have had a few hiccups in the last few weeks, but, unlike Dubar’s, nothing to really worry about. Either team could win this but going by not only the numbers, but, the most recent ones, VG has a slight edge.
RATED: VG lean in a near toss-up.
I want to remind everybody that the numbers never lie. Looking at the adjusted numbers below (they now include the Sweet 16 week), only one of the top 7 teams in terms of team average & average score per game has been eliminated. NOTE: I personally prefer the points per game average below as far as an indicator of what’s most likely to happen. Average weekly score for weeks 7-Sweet 16 (total number of games played during those weeks in parentheses).
Hoosiers=317.7 (91)
Virginia Gentlemen=311.8 (94)
Maize and Blue Blood=300.2 (95)
KC Warthogs=293.7 (89)
COMMENT: The Hoosiers couldn’t expect to stay around the 330.0 per week mark forever, and even though 317.7 is still rather gaudy, they are more like a 300-310 team right now. That’s what makes me thing they and VG-which is going the opposite way, on the rise, are such a close and great matchup. MBB has also been rising, ditto KC. The difference there is that MBB is right at their ceiling and relies on its players to get their averages to win. KC, despite the “Edey factor (Edey counts for one and a half players just about every week), needs some of their players to “out-perform” their season totals. However, this too, looks like it should be a very close matchup unless those “Out-performers” continue to show up and Edey continues to average 32-35+ again.
Now, look at their average points per player, per game, derived from adding up the total number of points scored in weeks 7-Sweet 16, and dividing that total by the number of games they played during those weeks.
Hoosiers: 2,224 points=25.3 over 91 games
Virginia Gentlemen: 2,183 points=23.0 over 94 games
KC Warthogs: 2,056 points=22.8 over 89 games
Maize and Blue Blood: 2,102 points=22.1 over 95 games
COMMENT: Again, the Hoosiers dominate, and, in these stats, averaging 2.3 points per player more than the next closest team is freaking SCARY! KC & MBB have risen but it’s the Virginia Gentlemen who have not only climbed but maintained a high level.