A spread of +5.0 is the bottom line most of the time (there are no absolutes in fantasy basketball) to give a team a better than average chance of winning. The funny thing is, that in addition to the lower spreads being a super strong indicator of roster/lineup weakness, too good of a spread (as we get over 7.0) indicates the lack of players who can score points and rely on rebounds, assists, steals, etc., etc., to get their points. While it results in a great spread number it also results in not being able to score enough points to win vs. a strong team that will have multiple scorers. Games vs. non-DI opponents skew the results some, but, basically, if you are averaging 5+ in the spread department, you not only had a good week but it’s likely closer to a team’s true make-up. A team with a very low spread (under 4.0) that has a winning and/or undefeated week achieved it vs. weak opposition and that is also not sustainable.
Spread differential in order of highest per player average to lowest (W-L record shown for the week).
6.0 or better
0-3>Hoosiers: +85=6.53
Comment: Spread differential kept them very close in 2 losses, the other was a blowout to M&BB.
3-0>Deep Valley Grouchos: +85=6.07
Comment: Mixed bag lineup-wise as far as production, but, again, guards were the weak spot. The good? Led the league in fg pct. at 61.8%. The bad? 61.8 % is not sustainable.
*Plus move ahead of week 2: Center Oscar Cluff & guard Kam Jones.
3-0>Maize and Blue Bloods: +90=6.0
Comment: Best team in the MML (by far) put up 360 points and everyone should know that they could possibly wind up breaking the MML season record for most points scored. What they did the first week was sustainable with that particular lineup. Put up the most shots and also hit on 55.6% of them+a league best 106 rebounds.
2-1>Gator Bait: +78=6.0
Comment: Easy schedule as they cruised over the MML’s weakest team, the Vindaloos, eked past the Hoosiers (great spread not enough firepower) and lost to the North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer-who did not have a great week but are one of the stronger teams. GB made some impressive additions that will take effect starting in week two.
*Plus move ahead of week 2: Forward Nick Martinelli & frosh Josh Harris, although Martinelli figures to be making a downward adjustment, statistically. How much is the million-dollar question?
5.0 or better
1-2-House of Sparky: +76=5.06
Comment: Lost to a strong team, beat a weak team, lost to an okay team.
2-1>Saluki YRD’s: +61=5.01
Comment: Had a favorable schedule and were only 4 points short of going 3-0 for the week.
*Plus move ahead of week 2: Guard Anthony Roy
4.0 or better
0-3>Vindaloos: +62=4.42
Comment: Apologies to “Oceans 11” but the Vins’ are in “rubble,” as in Barney which translates to: In trouble.
1-2>Prozac Pups: +51=4.25
Comment: Lost to good, beat the weak, lost to an okay team.
2-1>North Pole Fightin’ Reindeer: +49=4.08
Comment: Won the games they should have won before getting blasted by M&BB.
2-1>Hillbilly Maulers: +56=4.0
Comment: Respectable first week. They started to turn it around last year by adding players with better spreads but they still need guys with firepower. Right now, they have some guys who can draw walks and get on base.
3.0 or better
2-1>KC Warthogs: +55=3.92
Comment: Good schedule for them. Scoring under 250 for the week would normally not result in a 2-1 record.
*Plus move ahead of week 2: F/c Toby Awaka. He seems to be coming on.
1-2>Sam Jacobson Went To Class: +41=3.72
Comment: Had next to nothing, got a gift win due to scheduling.
2-1>The Hoop Guru: +48=3.69
Comment: Good schedule, not their level of play got them two wins.
*Plus move ahead of week 2: Forward Augustinas Kiudulas..
On Oxygen
0-3>Virginia Gentlemen: +32=2.9
Comment: Had nothing did nothing. Their post-week one moves will really help their lineup.
*Plus move ahead of week 2: Forward Paulius Marauskas & frosh Jacob Cofie, guards Ishmael Leggett & Enoch Cheeks. Leggett & Cheeks are due for some statistical correction but should still perform at a desired level.
0-3>Hardwood Heroes: +28=2.54
Comment: They had almost nothing going on. They too will benefit from some moves they made at the end of the week.
3-0>Psychos: +38=2.37
Comment: Good schedule gave them two wins. Difficult to go 3-0 without some kindness from the schedule. However, they do have guys who will put it up-which helps. They had the second most fga’s week one. They will need to see spread improvement to at least a minimum of 4.0 when they face stronger opponents.