First thing is that I know the NCAA playoffs is scored differently than the MML. But I am going to use averages as I believe that mathematically, averages will turn out closer to probabilities than using total points. So, please don’t get freaked out about that.
I have ranked, or, “seeded” if you will, the top 3 teams in order of which team has the highest lineup average (averages used from after the 10-week mark, not the 11-week mark as the differences would be too minor to matter).
After that, I have grouped teams in the order of how I like them for the playoffs and NOT on their lineup averages. I have also listed the lineup that I think is the best that each team can put out-which could be different than the top scoring lineup.
On the other hand, remember that each team is going to usually score 10-15 points less than their max average lineup total. That’s not a theory of mine, it just happens. Oh, the better teams will usually have one week at or even above their max, another close to the max, another maybe 5-10 points below their max, and, then they have a bad, or, hopefully, just a kind of average week that comes in the first round and doesn’t kill them. Due to the above, I will put an “adjusted score” (underlined) after their real lineup average. And remember, even adjusting the score, that “adjusted score” is still the max. So, think of it as a standard, but expect to see teams range from maybe 5 points under that adjusted score to 5 points higher in most cases.
The Favorite (best lineup average in parentheses)
Albuquerque Chickenhawks (170.9)
There are many ways to try and put together a strong fantasy team. Most of us, of course, value certain stats. But outside of just stats, while not imperative, a really good team will send out a lineup in which most every player is “the man” for his college team. That is in evidence when looking at who the Chickenhawks can put on the floor. All 7 players in the lineup below are “the man” for their collegiate team, even Schieffelin-although Clemson plays differently than most and he doesn’t get nearly the amount of fga’s his fg pct says he should. I’ve never done the stats on that “stat” but I think there are probably just a handful of fantasy teams that can pull off going 7-7.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Timberlake, 24.2
G-Barnhizer, 23.4
F-Fleming, 25.7
F-Schieffelin, 23.1
C-Broome, 30.8
6th-Bailey, 23.0
FR-Wooley, 20.7
Total=170.9/160.9
Key recent addition:
Analysis: They have it all. A dominant stud (all studs-25+fppg are not created equal) in Broome. A freshman who is the dominant player on his college team and also faces weak comp in conference play. An elite player in terms of positive spread (means that even when he isn’t getting shots you are going to get something much better out of him than your usual fantasy player) from Schieffelin. Guards who score (who knew? I am on a perennial search for one of those…grumble, grumble). There has been some expected Big 10 conference slippage from Barnhizer, but not much else to worry about. They will be difficult to beat because not only will a team have to get multiple max performances from their own players but they will have to receive some “gifts” (sub-par scoring) from a couple of Chickenhawks.
A Team That Can Stress The Chickenhawks
Independent George (160.8)
I like George even if he is balding, portly, insecure and the type of guy who insists on sneaking bites of a pastrami sandwich while having sex-and doesn’t share with his partner.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Clifford, 25.8
G-O’Neil, 22.6
F-Toppin, 23.6
F-Murray-Boyles, 23.7
C-Filewich, 21.6
6th-Jackson, 21.9
FR-Harper, 21.6
Total=160.8/150.8
Key recent additions: O’Neil-g, Jackson-g.
X factor? Jackson
Analysis: What’s interesting about IG’s lineup is that they not only have good production throughout, but, most of the performers are pretty consistent for the most part & more than a couple are capable of going big. And, the odds are that’s going to happen here and there during playoffs. Clifford is a stud. Toppin & Murray-Boyles can go big. Filewich (who I do not like) has been better, albeit nothing special, than I thought he would be and I think that Jackson’s season fantasy average is misleading as he is killing it in conference play. Add in Harper and you have a team that can get to the championship round!
The Disruptors/Darkhorses/Anti-Heroes
Gators (164.3)
This team, IMHO, has the best shot of getting to the final game, depending of course on their draw/path. They have some question marks in their lineup but it’s a damn good one.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Jones, 24.3
G-Fields, 23.5
F-Freeman, 22.2
F-Watts, 21.7
C-Ballo, 25.2
6th-Murauskas, 20.9
FR-Flagg, 26.5
Total=164.3/154.3
Key recent additions: Watts-f, Fields-g.
Analysis: The question marks include Jones, who despite his 24.3 fppg average, has been more like a 17-22 guy in con play for Marquette. Fields on the other hand can go big because he’s such a tremendous rebounder. Watts, another question mark, had a triple-double in week 10 and just put up 5 fantasy points the other night. Freeman has been pretty steady and should be going forward if he stays out of foul trouble. Indiana has “discovered” that Ballo is a baller-so his stock is rising. Murauskas is rising. Flagg is simply the best fantasy freshman on the floor 9 out of every 10 times he plays. There is a lot to like.
Hog Wild (165.4)
I could go hog wild over their frontcourt firepower!
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Koonce, 21.7
G-King, 21.4
F-Lendeborg, 30.3
F-Batcho, 25.9
C-Leuchten, 24.5
6th-Harris, 23.6
FR-Rapp, 18.0
Total=165.4/155.4
Key recent additions: Reynolds-g.
Analysis: They actually have 4 guards on the roster with decent stats but none of them can be counted on. It’s a shame that all that frontcourt talent will likely come to naught due to the fact that they don’t have one guard they can rely on. As of late, Rapp may have hit the freshman wall. This team has so much oomph from 4 players that they could wind up a semifinalist if opponents are off their game and their guards just hit close to their max.
T-N-T Youngsters (164.8)
I share their pain because I have shared their journey…searching endlessly like Caine all over the basketball landscape…for a guard.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Osobor, 21.2
>G-McLaughlin, 19.5 over McGlockton, 21.7
F-Raynaud, 30.1
F-Otieno, 24.7
C-Bittle, 21.5
6th-Ejiofor, 23.6
FR-Sorber, 24.2
Total=164.8/154.8
Analysis: It’s funny how much better they are than their record. Yes, guard is an issue, but, if any two guards they play can get 40-42 points combined their forwards (all 3) and Sorber can take it from there. ACC play has not slowed Raynaud down. Ejiofor has been surprisingly consistent. Otieno gets it done. Taylor could slot in at freshman which would move Sorber into Bittle’s spot, or, could plug in at either guard position. Scheduling (matchups) is of the utmost importance if they want to be DY-NO-MITE! I can see them having a good chance to make the semi’s.
X factor? McLaughlin/McGlockton
They Are What We Thought They Are…It Is What It Is…and, Other Cliches, etc., etc.
Fore Sons & A Doctor (157.4)
I don’t see them as having much growth potential, in fact, I believe that they are very close to their ceiling, numbers-wise. Oh, Jones, Avila, Williams-Dryden, Dickinson, and, especially Karaban, could all add a point or so, but, it just doesn’t appear that they have it in them.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Jones, 23.0
G-Durkin, 21.8
F-Avila, 22.2
F-Williams-Dryden, 21.8
C-Dickinson, 25.5
6th-Karaban, 21.3
FR-Jakucionis, 21.8
Total=157.4/147.4
Analysis: While Dickinson hasn’t been what he was a year ago, he’s still Dickinson, even if that’s Dickinson-lite. Avila is capable of going big. The guards have been a little up and down, especially Jones now that he’s in conference play, but again, both can go big on occasion. The others are steady and the freshman is very good.
The Walk Ons (158.3)
Addition of Bradley makes them a dangerous foe, especially in the early rounds. They don’t have any weak sisters in their lineup.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Bradley, 24.3
G-Felton, 21.6
F-Omier, 25.9
F-Hargrove, 21.3
C-Wolf, 22.0
6th-Lawson, 21.0
FR-Ivisic, 22.2
Total=158.3/148.3
Key recent additions: Bradley-g/f.
X factor? Bradley
Analysis: Outside of Omier, who surprisingly, has had a handful of un-Omier-like games, they also don’t have guys who are consistent more than not. You just don’t know what you are prone to get with Felton, Hargrove, and, Lawson. And, Ivisic (illness?) has not played in his team’s last two games. Depending on who they face first, they could possibly squeeze into a semi.
Tribe (159.4)
My God! They have some guards…I’m so envious!
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Stirtz, 23.6
G-Brown, 22.0
F-Ike, 22.6
F-Morgan, 20.8
C-Towt, 25.0
6th-Falslev, 21.3
FR-Bailey, 24.1
Total=159.4/149.4
X factor? Morgan.
Analysis: Stirtz has been better than expected in con play while Brown continues to shoot it and shoot it well. Towt is a stud while Bailey is one of the elite frosh.
Very Pretty General, But Can They Fight?
That’s a line from the “Dirty Dozen,” a fun 60’s war movie that was uttered by Donald Sutherland-one of the Dirty Dozen. The DD were training incognito for a secret mission overseas but were having issues with another general so they took a trip to his camp, had Sutherland pretend he was a general and had him inspect the troops. He paused during the inspection and posed that question (he had been told to say nothing at all) to the other general, played by Robert Ryan. Charles Bronson, John Cassavetes, Telly Savalas, Ernest Borgnine, George Kennedy and football great Jim Brown were also in the cast.
Boeheim’s Army (161.0)
They’ve got an exceptional freshman who can go big. Everybody else is good…in fact, they don’t have a player under 22 fppg in their lineup except in case of injury. That’s pretty dang good…
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Smith, 23.9
G-Taylor, 22.0
F-Brzovic, 23.8
F-Ognacevic, 23.5
*C-Joseph, 22.5/Mostafa, 22.5
*6th-Edgecombe, 20.8
FR-Harper, 22.8
Total=161.0/151.0
*Mostafa did not play in his 2nd game of the final week of the season and his status is unknown-at least to me. If he can play he starts at center and Joseph is the 6th man over Edgecombe.
Analysis: …but not good enough. They made some moves during the season but couldn’t acquire any studs. The freshman is the closest thing they have to a guy who can go big.
They Are A “Sleeper” But The Ghosts Have Arisen!
Ghosts of Pauley Pavilion (156.8)
The Ghosts have been on a tear of late behind “The Cluffer,” a fantasy force of nature.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Luis, 20.5
G-Hines, 20.3
F-Jakobi, 22.8
F-Kaufman-Renn, 21.0
C-Cluff, 32.1
6th-Sandfort, 19.4
FR-Harris, 20.7
Total=156.8/146.8
Key recent additions: Hines-g.
X factor? Hines
Analysis: For this story to continue on during the playoffs, Luis will have to be more consistent, Sandfort has to shoot better and Coles (possible starter) needs to continue to remember that he is a beast and must get rebounds. It’s a lot to ask but after starting out 3-9, they’ve gone 12-6 over their last 18 games. They’ve got a few steady hands and Cluff gives them some nice buffer with his 40+ games, which he has had four of, plus one over 50. I wouldn’t go so far as to label them dangerous, but definitely intriguing with the aroma of upset around them like a necklace of garlic.
Day Late & More Than a Dollar Short
Cal Bears (157.7)
They have a raging (would surging be a better word?) Kalkbrenner, so, that’s one impressive stud and they’ve got a really good freshman in Newell, but, they have to play him at a forward, so that negates any advantage they would have vs. an opponent.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Hall, 21.2
G-Lowe, 20.0
F-Garcia, 24.2
F-Newell, 22.2
C-Kalkbrenner, 28.6
6th-Degenhart, 21.0
FR-*Quaintance, 20.5
Total=157.7/147.7
*Quaintance did not play in his 2nd game of the final week of the season and his status is unknown-at least to me.
X factor? Hall, they hope.
Analysis: Hall usually goes somewhat big or somewhat small. He is definitely one of the mystery meats of fantasy basketball. Question: Why wait until the very, very end (1-31-25) to make all four moves? And, then, not take anyone who can actually make the team better when there are better players left in the FA pool? They wasted Kalkbrenner…Fire the GM…
We’re talking an Appetizer & a Vegetable, Not Steak & Potatoes Au Gratin
Yoder Dame Fighting Amish (154.9)
They’re loaded at forward. Elias Ralph isn’t one of their top 3 by the numbers. Too bad everyone is so freaked out by the idea of trading. One good guard could’ve changed their future.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Shulga, 21.0
G-Sears, 19.0
F-Brooks, 24.7
F-Folgueiras, 24.7
C-Moni, 24.1
6th-Rataj, 23.9
FR-Green, 17.5
Total=154.9/144.9
Key recent additions: Ballard-c, Schieffelin-f.
Analysis: Shulga is solid but unlikely to go big, and Sears has not been the Sears of old and they don’t really have much of an alternative to him. If Moni has a poor shooting night (like he did the other day) then his lack of rebounding acumen will bite them in the butt, but, speaking of buts, he has shot it well most of the season. Green has had moments.
X factor? Sears
They Will Be Exposed
South Austin Horns (150.9)
While I have not gone through their season week by week, looking at their roster I can tell you that the “horny toads” have lived a charmed life because there is nothing about their roster that screams anything close to impressive, or even, we’re good. In other words, like Fredo, the Horns have lived what I would call a charmed life this season but unfortunately, don’t have the numbers to be able to back it up with anything concrete.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Haggerty, 23.0
G-Brown, 22.0
F-Kaluma, 21.9
F-Davidson, 21.0
C-Goldin, 20.7
6th-Lee, 20.9
FR-Queen, 21.4
Total=150.9/140.9
Analysis: Odds are that they are going to go down much sooner than later. I was not going to list Brown as a starting guard. That’s because despite what his season average is, he has lost his way and absolutely sucks. I’d say that it’s 50-50 at best if he can put up more than 15 fantasy points as he has caught the dreaded “NBA-it is” in which a player who is a scorer and rebounder decides to focus on shooting treys and not much else and then starts to crumble under the pressure of bricking a ton of trey’s. Rebounding is hit and miss, he stops getting to the line, etc., etc. I know this first hand because I traded for him and I just dropped him. That hurts, but it’s just a really pedestrian lineup that would ever so rarely have a player go big. They should prevail over Pirate’s Raiders in the first round but they are going down after that.
A Team Only A Mother Could Love
The Prodigal Son (137.4)
Just one freshman on the roster (non-starter for the Illini) and, well…’nuff said.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Moore, 21.6
G-Rubio De La Rosa, 21.3
F-Banks, 24.2
F-Martinelli, 19.7
C-Jefferson, 21.8
6th-White, 17.7
FR-Riley, 11.1
Total=137.4/127.4
Key recent additions: Jefferson f/c.
Analysis: Unless the other team suddenly has several players go down with strokes after their games have already started I don’t see much chance of an upset by these guys. Just okay guards, Martinelli on a steady decline, and, White is totally useless in the lineup. And, can someone please explain why there is no other option at the frosh slot besides Riley?
Looks Like A TKO
Leathernecks (144.6)
It’s tough being a Western Illinois fan and it was an uncharacteristically down season for the tortoises. I can’t ever recall seeing a team start two players averaging under 18 fppg in the playoffs…
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Peterson, 22.1
G-Buchanan, 16.7
F-Noel, 24.0
F-Reese, 23.2
C-Castro, 24.6
6th-Martin, 17.5
FR-Jones, 16.5
Total=144.6/134.6
Analysis: Noel is the only guy who can go big on occasion and they need more of those guys to offset Buchanan (the fantasy basketball disappointment of the year) and Martin (also disappointing). They are going down early and it’s not because they are taking a “dive.”
DOA
“DOA” or, Dead on Arrival is a classic film noir movie starring Edmond O’Brien. There is a difference however between O’Brien’s character (who knew he was dying and tried to do something about it right away) and the Pirate’s GM who apparently had/has no problem with his team dying a slow death…sigh…
Pirate’s Raiders (14.)
They have a very nice backcourt and a stud in Dixon.
Best lineup (by the numbers)
G-Small, 22.8
G-Thomas, 21.7
F-Dixon, 26.6
F-Moore, 21.0
C-Stanley, 11.3 (more opp to get fantasy points than Beagle-11.7)
6th-Kiudulas, 19.8
FR-Johnson, 17.4
Total=140.6/130.6
Key recent additions: O’Neil-g.
Analysis: I have to say that the mindset of some GM’s really confuses me. For instance, what in the world was PR’s GM thinking as he looked at the center position? Well, I don’t know, but now that it’s too late, maybe hari-kiri? They have too many other problems. The point is they can’t do any damage with 3 players.
Thoughts on the Tournament
The Chickenhawks can be beat…but…they shouldn’t. I don’t look at all the other leagues but especially because it’s the NCAA league I have to say that I don’t remember seeing such a disparity between the top team and the rest of the teams. Again, anything can happen. I know that from personal experience having won a title with a regular season record under .500 team and having not won a title when we were the highest scoring team in the league on more than one occasion. So, I do see a path for Independent George, Fore Sons & Gators to defeat them, with the Gators being the closest to them in terms of lineup scoring average (Hog Wild & T-N-T are closer in margin to the ‘Hawks but I don’t like their chances as much), a lot of things will have to go right for them and a few things would have to go wrong for the ‘Hawks. I’m not going to jinx them by crowning them, pre-tourney, but they should make the final. The 8-9 game of T-N-T vs. Independent George in the 1st round is a toss-up and should be a real battle royale. The 4 vs. 13 games should also be good. It’s hard to go against a Kalkbrenner so Cal has a good shot at defeating the higher seeded Fore Sons. #5 Hog Wild should be in a close one with #12 The Walk Ons. More guys with home run power gives HW an edge. #7 Gators vs. #10 Ghosts will be a good one. Gators should have too much firepower but the Ghosts have been revitalized and are the hottest team in the league over the last 6 weeks.