Why are freshman stats as low as they are?
Quote from Walk Ons - Hoop Daddy on December 12, 2023, 8:12 amA question to generate some discussion. Why do freshman stats appear to be down this year? Maybe they're not and I'm wrong, but currently in the two leagues I play in, NCAA and IBL, the highest fpts average is 21. There's also only one frosh averaging 20 or more. I think it's a product of extended eligibility, some impact from NIL and access to players in the portal that give recruiting coaches the option to fill rosters with more experienced players vs younger untested players. I will leave the analysis of this to those of you much smarter than me (everybody else). My last comment, it is reasonable to assume that if you broke down the minutes played this season by academic class, freshmen have fewer minutes of playing time relative to historic figures. Lets hear what others think about this.
A question to generate some discussion. Why do freshman stats appear to be down this year? Maybe they're not and I'm wrong, but currently in the two leagues I play in, NCAA and IBL, the highest fpts average is 21. There's also only one frosh averaging 20 or more. I think it's a product of extended eligibility, some impact from NIL and access to players in the portal that give recruiting coaches the option to fill rosters with more experienced players vs younger untested players. I will leave the analysis of this to those of you much smarter than me (everybody else). My last comment, it is reasonable to assume that if you broke down the minutes played this season by academic class, freshmen have fewer minutes of playing time relative to historic figures. Lets hear what others think about this.
Quote from Grouchos on December 15, 2023, 5:43 pmHD,
I haven't spent any time researching this, but, since it is about fantasy scoring, I have some thoughts. First off, one thing has not changed. A majority of the freshmen who get good minutes on DI teams are guards. I usually avoid taking a freshman guard. They usually only take a lot of shots, don't hit a good percentage, and, don't get a lot of assists, along with a high turnover rate. On top of this, when I say I try to avoid taking a frosh guard, I am referring to any frosh guards that are point guards. They usually aren't going to rebound. That being said, I did take a frosh point guard this year, but I made sure to do my homework. He is a 6'5 point guard, and, a "stat-stuffer" who rebounds and also has an unusually high assist average for a frosh. So, that's the guards. Big man frosh usually don't get a lot of minutes, and, of course, they are almost always never used offensively. They are rim-runners out of pick and rolls and offensive rebounders, getting minutes because of their defensive ability. That leaves the forwards-who, are the highest scoring position in fantasy basketball and that's a mixed bag when it comes to freshmen. On top of all that, freshmen being freshmen, the non-conference schedule they face is the first DI level comp they have seen outside of practice and unless they are at a high major school they are often playing above their level.
Lastly, I don't think you are necessarily wrong, but in recent memory, it seems to me that just in the MML, there are maybe 4-5 freshmen averaging 23+ each year and that's usually it. Rick can chime in on that as he has the "books."
I have a baseline for scoring at each position. I just want a freshman who can average 15 fantasy points per game (fppg) and I'm happy. Anything over that is good gravy. Right now my "stat-stuffer" is at 2o.6 and my backup frosh is at 17.0. I don't have high expectations for freshmen. I have what I think are realistic ones. I want a lineup that can put up 300 fantasy points in a week where I have 14 games. Even with a freshman getting just 15, it's doable.
Getting slightly off topic, I have tried to figure out why almost everyone goes for a freshman first in the draft each year. My guess is that they think there are a limited number of talented freshmen and are confusing what they need for the other 6 positions (to me that ranges from 22-25+fppg) with the frosh position. They are not likely to find that in a freshman and should just wait for the season to start to see which freshmen are actually good fantasy prospects. Currently, something like 7 out of the top 10 frosh scorers in the MML were undrafted freshmen...sorry for going off topic but it actually seemed to lead into that a little bit.
HD,
I haven't spent any time researching this, but, since it is about fantasy scoring, I have some thoughts. First off, one thing has not changed. A majority of the freshmen who get good minutes on DI teams are guards. I usually avoid taking a freshman guard. They usually only take a lot of shots, don't hit a good percentage, and, don't get a lot of assists, along with a high turnover rate. On top of this, when I say I try to avoid taking a frosh guard, I am referring to any frosh guards that are point guards. They usually aren't going to rebound. That being said, I did take a frosh point guard this year, but I made sure to do my homework. He is a 6'5 point guard, and, a "stat-stuffer" who rebounds and also has an unusually high assist average for a frosh. So, that's the guards. Big man frosh usually don't get a lot of minutes, and, of course, they are almost always never used offensively. They are rim-runners out of pick and rolls and offensive rebounders, getting minutes because of their defensive ability. That leaves the forwards-who, are the highest scoring position in fantasy basketball and that's a mixed bag when it comes to freshmen. On top of all that, freshmen being freshmen, the non-conference schedule they face is the first DI level comp they have seen outside of practice and unless they are at a high major school they are often playing above their level.
Lastly, I don't think you are necessarily wrong, but in recent memory, it seems to me that just in the MML, there are maybe 4-5 freshmen averaging 23+ each year and that's usually it. Rick can chime in on that as he has the "books."
I have a baseline for scoring at each position. I just want a freshman who can average 15 fantasy points per game (fppg) and I'm happy. Anything over that is good gravy. Right now my "stat-stuffer" is at 2o.6 and my backup frosh is at 17.0. I don't have high expectations for freshmen. I have what I think are realistic ones. I want a lineup that can put up 300 fantasy points in a week where I have 14 games. Even with a freshman getting just 15, it's doable.
Getting slightly off topic, I have tried to figure out why almost everyone goes for a freshman first in the draft each year. My guess is that they think there are a limited number of talented freshmen and are confusing what they need for the other 6 positions (to me that ranges from 22-25+fppg) with the frosh position. They are not likely to find that in a freshman and should just wait for the season to start to see which freshmen are actually good fantasy prospects. Currently, something like 7 out of the top 10 frosh scorers in the MML were undrafted freshmen...sorry for going off topic but it actually seemed to lead into that a little bit.
Quote from The Commish on January 13, 2024, 11:36 amApologies for delay been busy and did not see any new forum posts...
Well I don't keep track on everything but I would agree with most statements, 'undrafted' FR are somewhat higher in average due to fact they are majority from the lower conferences and not the "top rated freshmen" coming into college, which is really "top NBA prospects" more than anything. I do thing the 'super senior' and 'extra COVID' years have definitely affected freshmen, as college coaches are willing to take a 'known' over 'unknown' in production, as their jobs depend on it. Yes there are the few elite top FR but that has dwindled over last couple years.
I do keep track of Top 25 FR incoming and the Top 25 Drafted FR Composite from all four leagues for comparison sake, I have been doing so since the 2006-07 class (Oden & Durant). Back in those days and for next several years after, drafting top FR was slam dunk that they was at least 17+fpts until we hit the 2016-17 (Harry Giles) and 2017-18 (Michael Porter) top rated FR were both coming in with injuries and it showed, both made it to NBA on potential but truly never same player. In the last two classes, both top ranked FR have almost identical average of 14.4-14.5
That being said, our leagues have done better drafting that what their ranking was, taking Top 25 ranked vs Top 25 FR Draft, the higher average was drafted position 22 to 3.
Also, after you get past the top 5 FR drafted (not acquired) the averages drop tremendously. Average of Top 5 drafted is 20.7, FR players drafted 6-10 dropped to 15.2 and then remaining 11-25 players down to 13.0. These numbers include this year.
This year, there are only FOUR current freshmen with a season average over 20, a couple more at 19+ but that's it! That's out of 1,093 FR that have played this year so far! NONE of them are Top 25 freshmen coming in, nor was any of them drafted!
Apologies for delay been busy and did not see any new forum posts...
Well I don't keep track on everything but I would agree with most statements, 'undrafted' FR are somewhat higher in average due to fact they are majority from the lower conferences and not the "top rated freshmen" coming into college, which is really "top NBA prospects" more than anything. I do thing the 'super senior' and 'extra COVID' years have definitely affected freshmen, as college coaches are willing to take a 'known' over 'unknown' in production, as their jobs depend on it. Yes there are the few elite top FR but that has dwindled over last couple years.
I do keep track of Top 25 FR incoming and the Top 25 Drafted FR Composite from all four leagues for comparison sake, I have been doing so since the 2006-07 class (Oden & Durant). Back in those days and for next several years after, drafting top FR was slam dunk that they was at least 17+fpts until we hit the 2016-17 (Harry Giles) and 2017-18 (Michael Porter) top rated FR were both coming in with injuries and it showed, both made it to NBA on potential but truly never same player. In the last two classes, both top ranked FR have almost identical average of 14.4-14.5
That being said, our leagues have done better drafting that what their ranking was, taking Top 25 ranked vs Top 25 FR Draft, the higher average was drafted position 22 to 3.
Also, after you get past the top 5 FR drafted (not acquired) the averages drop tremendously. Average of Top 5 drafted is 20.7, FR players drafted 6-10 dropped to 15.2 and then remaining 11-25 players down to 13.0. These numbers include this year.
This year, there are only FOUR current freshmen with a season average over 20, a couple more at 19+ but that's it! That's out of 1,093 FR that have played this year so far! NONE of them are Top 25 freshmen coming in, nor was any of them drafted!
Quote from Grouchos on January 14, 2024, 11:09 pmHi everyone, I wanted to add something to this and that is that as far as trying to determine if a freshman will be a good FANTASY freshman, none of us have enough information. I believe this is true in most recent years, but, I can tell you for sure that if you picked the top 10 freshmen who were drafted to go up against the top 10 freshmen who were not drafted this season, it would be no contest. The undrafted freshmen would kill the drafted, higher ranked freshmen. In fact, just take the first 10 freshmen drafted vs. the first 10 non-drafted freshmen
Drafted freshmen-the first 10 drafted in order (comments refer to their fantasy ability)
Xavier Booker (currently not on a team), Isaiah Collier (so-so season-currently injured), Cody Williams (again, nothing special), Andrej Stojakovic (has done nothing and now comes off the bench at Stanford), Omaha Biliew (currently not on a team, hardly every plays at Iowa State-behind another frosh on their team), D.J. Wagner (has had moments but is about the 3rd best frosh on Kentucky's team and is maybe so-so as a fantasy player), Justin Edwards (currently not on a team, the 4th best frosh at Kentucky), STEPHON CASTLE (starting to be an impact fantasy frosh), Ja'Kobe Walter (one of the better fantasy freshmen), DeShawn Harris-Smith (has done next to nothing.
That's 2 out of the first 10 who you would put in your lineup/ 3 of the top 10 drafted have been cut.
Undrafted freshmen-the 10 best in no particular order:
Carlton Carrington, Garrett Johnson, Tyler Harris, Malik Mack, J.T. Toppin, Darren Buchanan, Vasean Allette, Baye Ndongo, Reed Sheppard; Kwame Evans/Yves Missi/Mason Falslev/Tyler Perkins/Seydou Traore-take your pick.
Even if you took the best freshmen drafted, regardless of order, they would get crushed by this group.
Toppin is arguably the best freshman in fantasy basketball. 49 other freshmen were either drafted or added before him!
Lastly, the freshman stats listed for the leaders would certainly be higher if some of the freshmen named above had enough games played to qualify.
All of the above is why I resist the rare urge to draft a freshman every year. I am not always successful. This year I drafted Dailey from Oklahoma State. I drafted him because at the end of the draft, while I had plenty of names of non-freshmen to choose from, none really appealed to me as a "keeper," so, I took Dailey, who I thought was one of the more promising freshmen when looking at the fact that his body was college-ready, he was skilled, he was big, and played a position where he would have to rebound, along with the fact that he was a probably starter. And, because no non-freshman appealed to me, it saved me a "move."
Letting college teams play a couple of exhibitions+a couple of games and then taking a freshman from the free agent pool is the best way to improve your odds of being successful in selecting a freshman.
Hi everyone, I wanted to add something to this and that is that as far as trying to determine if a freshman will be a good FANTASY freshman, none of us have enough information. I believe this is true in most recent years, but, I can tell you for sure that if you picked the top 10 freshmen who were drafted to go up against the top 10 freshmen who were not drafted this season, it would be no contest. The undrafted freshmen would kill the drafted, higher ranked freshmen. In fact, just take the first 10 freshmen drafted vs. the first 10 non-drafted freshmen
Drafted freshmen-the first 10 drafted in order (comments refer to their fantasy ability)
Xavier Booker (currently not on a team), Isaiah Collier (so-so season-currently injured), Cody Williams (again, nothing special), Andrej Stojakovic (has done nothing and now comes off the bench at Stanford), Omaha Biliew (currently not on a team, hardly every plays at Iowa State-behind another frosh on their team), D.J. Wagner (has had moments but is about the 3rd best frosh on Kentucky's team and is maybe so-so as a fantasy player), Justin Edwards (currently not on a team, the 4th best frosh at Kentucky), STEPHON CASTLE (starting to be an impact fantasy frosh), Ja'Kobe Walter (one of the better fantasy freshmen), DeShawn Harris-Smith (has done next to nothing.
That's 2 out of the first 10 who you would put in your lineup/ 3 of the top 10 drafted have been cut.
Undrafted freshmen-the 10 best in no particular order:
Carlton Carrington, Garrett Johnson, Tyler Harris, Malik Mack, J.T. Toppin, Darren Buchanan, Vasean Allette, Baye Ndongo, Reed Sheppard; Kwame Evans/Yves Missi/Mason Falslev/Tyler Perkins/Seydou Traore-take your pick.
Even if you took the best freshmen drafted, regardless of order, they would get crushed by this group.
Toppin is arguably the best freshman in fantasy basketball. 49 other freshmen were either drafted or added before him!
Lastly, the freshman stats listed for the leaders would certainly be higher if some of the freshmen named above had enough games played to qualify.
All of the above is why I resist the rare urge to draft a freshman every year. I am not always successful. This year I drafted Dailey from Oklahoma State. I drafted him because at the end of the draft, while I had plenty of names of non-freshmen to choose from, none really appealed to me as a "keeper," so, I took Dailey, who I thought was one of the more promising freshmen when looking at the fact that his body was college-ready, he was skilled, he was big, and played a position where he would have to rebound, along with the fact that he was a probably starter. And, because no non-freshman appealed to me, it saved me a "move."
Letting college teams play a couple of exhibitions+a couple of games and then taking a freshman from the free agent pool is the best way to improve your odds of being successful in selecting a freshman.
Quote from Tribe on January 23, 2024, 6:50 amWe talking bout freshmen! Freshman? I’m talking bout a senior who was playing oh the year a few years ago and he gets less then 10 fpg last night
bacot is the softest center POY I have EVER seen!
can not believe he does not get at least 25 FPG.
do you agree?
We talking bout freshmen! Freshman? I’m talking bout a senior who was playing oh the year a few years ago and he gets less then 10 fpg last night
bacot is the softest center POY I have EVER seen!
can not believe he does not get at least 25 FPG.
do you agree?