MML Championship Postscript

Gator Bait had 4 players play games on Saturday and the Deep Valley Grouchos had 5 players play games. The DVG’s are in “good position” going forward as Gardner had a poor game and can easily do better in his 2nd, while both Soriano & Broome had okay games and can also do better their 2nd time around. Hopkins, who had 33 at home vs. Villanova figures to not do as well vs. UConn. He had an excellent game at home vs. UConn earlier, and, UConn will be scheming to slow him down. Pember, who had 30, could do worse, could do better, could do about the same.

As for GB, well, Timme got to play against defenseless Pepperdine, which evidently decided to let him go crazy and stop the other guys, or, something…well, they let him get 20 shots and he made 15, so, he killed, with 36. Timme does figure to score less fantasy points the next time out, but, being Timme, he could go big again. Ditto for Podziemski, who went for 35 fantasy points as Santa Clara played Portland. Portland is a very poor rebounding team. Podziemski collected 15 rebounds. Like Timme, he figures to not score as much but is capable of getting another 35. Abmas went for 24 but went 8-23. Abmas is a high-volume guy and actually much better than Antoine Davis at it. He figures to be around the same or higher. They should see improvement from Mushila, who still managed to get 17 fantasy points despite only attempting 3 fga’s.

So, what does the above mean? Well, there are 7 lineup slots, so not in terms of player vs. player by position, but just in terms of GB’s 7 vs. DVG’s 7 players, Timme has “won.” That’s a “W” for GB. Podziemski has “won.” That’s two wins. For the DVG’s, Pember is a “win.” So, it’s 2-1 for GB with the other 4 slots still to be determined, although, truth be told, I think that Abmas has a “W,” and it’s really 3-1. However, the DVG’s could possibly win the freshman war-which is still to be played. Murray will likely “win” his spot and Bacot has a very tough two games on the road this week.

The key for the DVG’s is that they will be behind after the first 7 games have been played but they can’t be way, way behind, like Wiley E. Coyote standing in the dust of the Roadrunner. If they can stay within 10-12 points after the first round of games, there is a chance of some “slippage” by the guys who have scored big for GB, but, the DVG’s must get some better 2nd round performances from players like Gardner, Broome, and, Soriano, and, hopefully, not too much slippage from Hopkins.

So, more bets are coming in on GB in Vegas and I have to say that they do have an edge, but, regardless of the outcome, I’d rather be here than in Philadelphia, to paraphrase W.C. Fields…

After The First Round (first 7 games for each team) Has Been Completed

#1 Gator Bait                 #2 Deep Valley Grouchos

G-Abmas=24              G-Gardner=13                  

G-Podziemski=35               G-Hopkins=33

F-Murray=11             F-Pember=30

F-Mushila=17                  F-Bacote=25

C-Timme=36              C-Soriano=20

6th-Devries=12                6th-Broome=20

Fr-Hendricks=14               Fr-Noel=20

Total 149.0                   Total 161.0

First, let’s start at the end, the totals at the end of the first seven games. The DVG’s are averaging 23 fppg per man. That’s good. Very good would be 168.0 or 24 fppg per man. Great would be anything from 169.0-175.0, 175.0 being 25 fppg per man. Gator Bait is slightly, very slightly below average at 149.0. If this was the regular season, every team wants to score 300+ points each week. So, if you double GB’s 149, you get 298…just slightly below average. And this means…

…Well, it means this is a very competitive match so far. The DVG’s were given more “gifts” from Gator Bait than vice versa. Let’s take the forwards first. Murray getting 11 is of course, the biggest gift. However, that leaves Murray with a very high “ceiling” as far as bouncing back big in game two. Let’s say he gets 25. That 11 would then bump up to an 18. If he gets 30, it’s now 21.5 and if he got 35 it would be 23. 18=a plus 7 bump in team average, and so on and so on. So, I expect him to bounce back against Wisconsin. But, I expect closer to 25 than 30 since the game is at Wisconsin and Wisconsin will try to control tempo and is a team that usually schemes well for the opposition-they will play good team defense. So, I expect a “plus” game for Murray but how much is going to be crucial. Pember could do another 30, or, a 20-24, or, possibly 30+. Pember gets a home game. So, edge to the DVG’s on this crucial matchup. On the other hand, I seriously doubt that Mushila will attempt just three fga’s again and Bacote could struggle on the road at Notre Dame, a team that controls the tempo, plays good team defense and despite their record has been in every game this year. Bacote could go as low as 15 which would knock him down from 25.0 to 20.0. I am going to call this matchup a push. Gardner should bump up which will make the margin at the guard position, much, much better and that’s all the DVG’s are really hoping for; lose at both guard positions but try to keep it within 10 fppg. The strategy at the center position is similiar. Soriano isn’t going to catch Timme. He just needs to have his “usual” Soriano game of between 26-30 while Timme is around 25 or so to keep it close.

But now, we come to the two possible earth-shaking spots as far as this matchup goes. At the 6th man spot, while, again, Devries should do better next time around, so should Broome. Broome gets a home game vs. Ole’ Miss which can’t really stop him. Only his own team (guard Green) can do that. Broome had 20 while only getting 6 rebounds which is very un-Broome like for him. I don’t expect to see that rebound total in the next game. Devries gets another home game vs. Illinois State. But, I am giving Broome the edge here, and, depending on Devries, the difference could be even more, which helps to even out the negative from the guard spots & Timme.

Ditto for the freshman position. If I can, I like to watch the “live stats” and watch my player get his stats because it gives me a feel for how his coach and his team operates. But, sometimes, it’s about all that and the player. Anyways, I was able to watch DVG freshman Brandon Noel today (Sunday) and I tuned in late. With about 8 minutes to go in the game Noel had 5 fantasy points and was just 1-5 from the field; it didn’t look good, but, over the final 8 minutes of the game he made two trey’s and collected something like 8 rebounds to save the day and get his 20 fantasy points (he was averaging about 24 fppg coming into the game). That saved the DVG’s you know what, or, como se llama if you know that expression for the you know what. Hendricks, who was averaging 22+ fppg coming into the contest had just 14. If Noel didn’t get up to 20 I would be writing that this championship match is toast…Game, set, match to Gator Bait. But, while I expect Hendricks to bounce back, I give the edge to Noel. Not to jinx him, but, while, yes, his 2nd game will be his 3rd straight road game which is usually a recipe for disaster, it’s against Oakland. Year after year after year, Oakland is one of worst defensive teams in the country. Their coach just doesn’t seem to give a damn about defense. So, again, I hate to possibly jinx Noel, but, if you have to play 3 straight on the road, nothing could be better than Oakland being that third of three. Edge to the DVG’s here.

GB didn’t get any “death” scores (single digit scores) but getting four scores in the teens means that each one of those players needs to bump up at least 4 fppg for them to be right there. Because while the DVG’s only had one player in the teens, they also have another 3 players who all scored 20 and can all easily score more than that the next time out.

DVG now has a slight edge going into the final round of games but it could still go either way, so, I make it just 51% to 49% in favor of the DVG’s right now.